美国国家公共电台 NPR--A debt default by the U.S. would be devastating to the nation's credit rating

A debt default by the U.S. would be devastating¹ to the nation's credit rating

Transcript²

As the debt ceiling talks continue and the United States edges closer to a potential default on its debt, the nation is at risk of losing its prized AAA rating.

STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:

OK, the triple-A rating on government debt is as good as it can be.

MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:

It shows that a country reliably pays its bills. And just like your personal credit score determines things like how much credit you can get and how much it will cost, that credit rating affects the interest rates a country pays to borrow. Two of three ratings agencies have given the U.S a triple-A rating up to now, though negotiations³ over the debt limit now endanger that.

INSKEEP: NPR's David Gura joins us now. David, good morning.

DAVID GURA, BYLINE⁴: Good morning, Steve.

INSKEEP: Thanks for being with us early. How much is at risk?

GURA: Well, you know, in large part, what these ratings reflect is that the U.S. is in a really unique economic position. It's the world's largest economic engine, and the U.S. has always paid its bills on time to the companies and countries that have bought its bonds. But every time the U.S. goes through this - and this happens dozens of times since World War II - investors⁵ and policymakers have the chance to think twice, and so do ratings agencies. And one of them has taken action in the past. S&P Global did downgrade the U.S. to double-A-plus back in 2011. That was just a few days after another bruising⁶ battle over the debt ceiling. You know, what they do - S&P, Moody's, Fitch - is they dig through data, analysts⁷ meet with government officials. And Kathy Jones, who's the chief fixed-income strategist at Charles Schwab, told me their goal is to answer one key question.

KATHY JONES: What's the probability of default? Typically, with the U.S., it's been nearly zero. But now it rises when we get into these fights over the debt ceiling.

INSKEEP: Well, given that the U.S. was downgraded by one agency the last time there was a serious conflict over this, is the U.S. at risk of losing the triple-A ratings from the others?

GURA: Well, of course, if there's no deal and there is a default, we'd see downgrades. That's a given. But even if there isn't a default, these ratings agencies are going to ask themselves whether U.S. debt deserves to be triple-A. You know, as we've said, one of these agencies doesn't think so. It's been 12 years, and S&P still has the U.S. a notch⁸ below triple-A. The chair of S&P's sovereign rating committee back then was John Chambers⁹. He's retired¹⁰ now, and I asked him what the rationale was for that downgrade. And Chambers told me there really were two reasons.

JOHN CHAMBERS: One was the political impasse¹¹ and the fractiousness of policy setting, and the other was the fiscal¹² trajectory¹³.

GURA: In other words, it had to do with the size of the country's debt and deficit¹⁴ and also how difficult it was, then, for policymakers to agree on anything, including what to do with the debt ceiling. So the more things change, the more they stay the same. And we could see Fitch and Moody's follow suit. And although they declined to talk with me on the record, Steve, they have indicated they are watching these talks very closely.

INSKEEP: How much would a downgrade matter to all of us?

GURA: Well, odds¹⁵ are we'd see a steep selloff in the markets. The day after that downgrade back in 2011, the S&P 500 sank by almost 7%. We'd probably see the dollar weaken, and U.S. government bonds would be seen as riskier¹⁶. Now, because of that, investors would demand higher interest from the U.S. because of that additional risk, and that would make it more costly¹⁷ for the U.S. to raise money. Your credit card analogy is a good one. But, Steve, ratings are just one part of how professional investors make decisions, and at the end of the day, firms do their own analysis. They look at those data and ratings from these agencies before they decide to buy bonds or to sell them. And I want to say, despite all this, the U.S. is still seen as a country that is safe and secure. And something else it has going forward is, right now, investors who are in the market for government debt really have limited options. They don't have a whole lot of alternatives.

INSKEEP: Not going to buy from Argentina, I suppose. David, thanks so much.

GURA: Thanks, Steve.

INSKEEP: That's NPR's David Gura.

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1 devastating   

adj.毁灭性的，令人震惊的，强有力的

参考例句：

• It is the most devastating storm in 20 years.这是20年来破坏性最大的风暴。
• Affairs do have a devastating effect on marriages.婚外情确实会对婚姻造成毁灭性的影响。

2 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

3 negotiations   

协商( negotiation的名词复数 )； 谈判； 完成（难事）； 通过

参考例句：

• negotiations for a durable peace 为持久和平而进行的谈判
• Negotiations have failed to establish any middle ground. 谈判未能达成任何妥协。

4 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

5 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

6 bruising   

adj.殊死的；十分激烈的v.擦伤(bruise的现在分词形式)

参考例句：

• He suffered cracked ribs and bruising. 他断了肋骨还有挫伤。
• He slipped and fell, badly bruising an elbow. 他滑倒了，一只胳膊肘严重擦伤。 来自辞典例句

7 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

8 notch   

n.(V字形)槽口，缺口，等级

参考例句：

• The peanuts they grow are top-notch.他们种的花生是拔尖的。
• He cut a notch in the stick with a sharp knife.他用利刃在棒上刻了一个凹痕。

9 chambers   

n.房间( chamber的名词复数 )；（议会的）议院；卧室；会议厅

参考例句：

• The body will be removed into one of the cold storage chambers. 尸体将被移到一个冷冻间里。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Mr Chambers's readable book concentrates on the middle passage: the time Ransome spent in Russia. Chambers先生的这本值得一看的书重点在中间：Ransome在俄国的那几年。 来自互联网

10 retired   

adj.隐退的，退休的，退役的

参考例句：

• The old man retired to the country for rest.这位老人下乡休息去了。
• Many retired people take up gardening as a hobby.许多退休的人都以从事园艺为嗜好。

11 impasse   

n.僵局；死路

参考例句：

• The government had reached an impasse.政府陷入绝境。
• Negotiations seemed to have reached an impasse.谈判似乎已经陷入僵局。

12 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

13 trajectory   

n.弹道，轨道

参考例句：

• It is not difficult to sketch the subsequent trajectory.很容易描绘出它们最终的轨迹。
• The path followed by a projectile is called its trajectory.抛物体所循的路径称为它的轨道。

14 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

15 odds   

n.让步，机率，可能性，比率；胜败优劣之别

参考例句：

• The odds are 5 to 1 that she will win.她获胜的机会是五比一。
• Do you know the odds of winning the lottery once?你知道赢得一次彩票的几率多大吗？

16 riskier   

冒险的，危险的( risky的比较级 )

参考例句：

• Now they are starting to demand higher returns on riskier assets. 而今他们开始在风险更高的资产上要求更高的回报。
• The problem with that: RIM's business is getting riskier every quarter. 不过问题也随之而来：RIM面临的业务风险正逐季增大。

17 costly   

adj.昂贵的，价值高的，豪华的

参考例句：

• It must be very costly to keep up a house like this.维修这么一幢房子一定很昂贵。
• This dictionary is very useful,only it is a bit costly.这本词典很有用，左不过贵了些。