美国国家公共电台 NPR--What the deal to raise the debt ceiling means for the economy

What the deal to raise the debt ceiling means for the economy

Transcript¹

NPR's Leila Fadel talks to David Wessel, director of the Hutchins Center at the Brookings Institution, about the long-term impact of the federal debt ceiling deal that was struck over the weekend.

LEILA FADEL, HOST:

The deal that President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy reached over the weekend will, if approved by Congress, raise the debt ceiling and avoid a government default, and it puts some boundaries on fights over the budget for the next two years. To find out what this means for the economy and for the federal debt, we turn to David Wessel. He's director of the Hutchins Center at the Brookings Institution. Good morning, David.

DAVID WESSEL: Good morning, Leila.

FADEL: So the legislation has lots of pieces. What are some of the highlights?

WESSEL: Well, President Biden and Speaker McCarthy are both doing a lot of spinning. They are both claiming victory, but they can't brag² too much because each of them needs votes from the other side to get this through Congress. So here's some of the highlights. One, the defense³ budget will go up about as much as President Biden proposed in his budget, though not as much as some hawks⁴ wanted. Total annually⁵ appropriated domestic spending will not keep up with inflation for the next couple of years. There are caps on that, but which individual agencies and programs will be cut depends on the details of appropriation⁶ bills that have yet to be written.

There's also an agreement, though it's not spelled out in the 99 pages of legislative⁷ text, that $20 billion of the 80 billion that the IRS won last year to crack down on tax cheats will be diverted to other domestic spending. All the money that President Biden won last year for infrastructure⁸, climate change, semiconductors⁹ survives intact. And we won't have to worry about the debt ceiling for another couple of years.

FADEL: Now, how much will this deal restrain federal debt over the next few years?

WESSEL: A little. It's important to remember that the only spending cuts in this deal involve annually appropriated spending for things other than defense. That slice of the budget is only about 10% of all federal spending. This deal doesn't touch the big drivers of the federal deficit¹⁰ - health care and Social Security - nor does it do anything to close tax loopholes or raise revenues. So the federal debt will climb a bit slower than projected if this agreement gets through Congress. We don't have any hard numbers yet. But the heavy lifting remains¹¹ for the future, after the 2024 presidential election. Remember that most of the provisions of the 2017 tax cut expire in 2025, so we'll have a fight over taxes then. And the Social Security trust fund runs dry in about 10 years.

FADEL: Now, many economic forecasters are predicting that the U.S. is headed for a recession later this year or early next year. If this package passes, does it make a recession more or less likely?

WESSEL: Well, less federal spending does mean less money pumped into the economy, and that will slow economic growth for the next couple of years by perhaps one- or two-tenths of a percentage point, so it's definitely a negative. But the effect of this agreement will be overwhelmed by all the other things going on in the economy - the lingering impact of Fed rate increases, inflation, energy prices and so on. But importantly, this removes a major cloud over the economy and over financial markets. One less thing to worry about, so that's a big plus.

FADEL: Some Republicans and Democrats¹² are threatening to vote against this legislation. What happens if it doesn't pass?

WESSEL: Well, then we'll be right back to where we were last week, facing a possible default. Treasury¹³ Secretary Yellen says without an increase in the debt limit by June 5, the government won't have enough money to pay its bills. Back in 1990, there was a deal on budget that got voted down by the House, and they came back and got a new one. But that took three weeks to work out, and we don't have three weeks this time.

FADEL: David Wessel is director of the Hutchins Center on Fiscal¹⁴ and Monetary¹⁵ Policy at the Brookings Institution. Thank you, David.

WESSEL: You're welcome.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 brag   

v./n.吹牛，自夸；adj.第一流的

参考例句：

• He made brag of his skill.他夸耀自己技术高明。
• His wealth is his brag.他夸张他的财富。

3 defense   

n.防御，保卫；[pl.]防务工事；辩护，答辩

参考例句：

• The accused has the right to defense.被告人有权获得辩护。
• The war has impacted the area with military and defense workers.战争使那个地区挤满了军队和防御工程人员。

4 hawks   

鹰( hawk的名词复数 )； 鹰派人物，主战派人物

参考例句：

• Two hawks were hover ing overhead. 两只鹰在头顶盘旋。
• Both hawks and doves have expanded their conditions for ending the war. 鹰派和鸽派都充分阐明了各自的停战条件。

5 annually   

adv.一年一次，每年

参考例句：

• Many migratory birds visit this lake annually.许多候鸟每年到这个湖上作短期逗留。
• They celebrate their wedding anniversary annually.他们每年庆祝一番结婚纪念日。

6 appropriation   

n.拨款，批准支出

参考例句：

• Our government made an appropriation for the project.我们的政府为那个工程拨出一笔款项。
• The council could note an annual appropriation for this service.议会可以为这项服务表决给他一笔常年经费。

7 legislative   

n.立法机构，立法权；adj.立法的，有立法权的

参考例句：

• Congress is the legislative branch of the U.S. government.国会是美国政府的立法部门。
• Today's hearing was just the first step in the legislative process.今天的听证会只是展开立法程序的第一步。

8 infrastructure   

n.下部构造，下部组织，基础结构，基础设施

参考例句：

• We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
• We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设，发展各类群众文化。

9 semiconductors   

n.半导体( semiconductor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Crystals may be insulators, semiconductors, or conductors. 晶体可以是绝缘体，半导体，或导体。 来自辞典例句
• Semiconductors containing such impurities are called p-type semiconductors. 含有这类杂质的半导体叫做P型半导体。 来自辞典例句

10 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

11 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

12 democrats   

n.民主主义者，民主人士( democrat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The Democrats held a pep rally on Capitol Hill yesterday. 民主党昨天在国会山召开了竞选誓师大会。
• The democrats organize a filibuster in the senate. 民主党党员组织了阻挠议事。 来自《简明英汉词典》

13 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

14 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

15 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。