美国国家公共电台 NPR--Latest inflation numbers come as the Fed considers what to do with interest rates

Latest inflation numbers come as the Fed considers what to do with interest rates

Transcript¹

The Labor² Department reports Tuesday on May's inflation rate. While inflation has cooled since last summer, prices are still rising faster than the Federal Reserve would like.

LEILA FADEL, HOST:

From the supermarket to the used car lot, Americans have been dealing³ with two years of sticker shock. And that continued in May, although inflation was somewhat cooler than the month before. Prices are up 4% over the last 12 months. That's the smallest annual increase since March of 2021. The latest cost of living report from the Labor Department comes just as Federal Reserve officials are huddling⁴ to decide what to do with interest rates. NPR's Scott Horsley joins us now with details. Good morning, Scott.

SCOTT HORSLEY, BYLINE⁵: Good morning.

FADEL: OK, so what's getting more expensive? And, Scott, please tell me something's getting cheaper.

HORSLEY: Something is, yeah. Rising rents and used car prices were some of the biggest drivers of inflation last month, but that was partially⁶ offset⁷ by falling prices elsewhere. Gasoline prices were down, even as demand for gas has been on the rise. And eggs, which were the poster child for soaring supermarket inflation, have come back to earth now that laying flocks are recovering from that severe outbreak of avian flu. In fact, egg prices dropped nearly 14% last month. That's the biggest decrease since 1951. White House economist⁸ Ernie Tedeschi says goods prices overall aren't climbing as fast as they had been now that pandemic knots in the supply chain have generally come untangled.

ERNIE TEDESCHI: We try not to pay too much attention to month-and-month numbers because they are noisy. But I think if you're looking at trends, supply chains have normalized, and that seems to have translated into goods inflation that has trended down.

HORSLEY: The problem is just as one pain in the pocketbook goes away, another comes along. So while the price of some things have leveled off or even fallen, other prices, especially for services like restaurant meals and car repairs, are still climbing. And that's making it hard to get overall inflation back down to 2%, where the Fed wants it to be. So-called core inflation, which strips out food and energy prices that bounce around a lot, remains⁹ stubbornly high. It was 5.3% for the 12 months ending in May.

FADEL: So what's the Fed doing in response?

HORSLEY: Well, it's been raising interest rates pretty aggressively. The central bank has boosted its benchmark rate at the last 10 straight meetings. Now, that makes it more expensive to borrow money for a business or buy a house or carry a balance on your credit card. At this week's meeting, though, Fed watchers think the central bank is going to take a break and leave rates unchanged, giving policymakers more time to assess how the economy's reacting to the higher borrowing cost. Andrew Patterson, who's a senior economist at Vanguard, says don't get too comfortable though. He thinks the Fed could start resuming rate hikes as early as July.

ANDREW PATTERSON: We believe the Fed has more work to do. I think they have an opportunity here for a hawkish¹⁰ pause or skip - whatever you want to call it - where they're saying, hey, we're eventually going to get to a higher terminal rate.

HORSLEY: Back in March, Fed policymakers, on average, thought rates would end up this year about where we are right now. But since then, we've had some strong economic data. So the Fed might feel like it needs to tap the brakes a little harder, even if it doesn't do so this week.

FADEL: We've been living with high inflation for a while now. How's this affecting the way people think about rising prices?

HORSLEY: You know, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York surveys people every month to see what they think inflation will do in the coming year and three years and five years. In the most recent survey, people guessed that inflation a year from now would be lower. In fact, their guess was the lowest since the spring of 2021. But they raise their estimate of where inflation would be three and five years out. So one way to think about that is people seem to be not as acutely worried about inflation as they were a few months ago, but they also think it's a stubborn problem that could be with us for a while.

FADEL: NPR's Scott Horsley, thank you.

HORSLEY: You're welcome.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 labor   

n.劳动，努力，工作，劳工；分娩；vi.劳动，努力，苦干；vt.详细分析；麻烦

参考例句：

• We are never late in satisfying him for his labor.我们从不延误付给他劳动报酬。
• He was completely spent after two weeks of hard labor.艰苦劳动两周后，他已经疲惫不堪了。

3 dealing   

n.经商方法，待人态度

参考例句：

• This store has an excellent reputation for fair dealing.该商店因买卖公道而享有极高的声誉。
• His fair dealing earned our confidence.他的诚实的行为获得我们的信任。

4 huddling   

n. 杂乱一团, 混乱, 拥挤 v. 推挤, 乱堆, 草率了事

参考例句：

• Twenty or thirty monkeys are huddling along the thick branch. 三十只猴子挤在粗大的树枝上。
• The defenders are huddling down for cover. 捍卫者为了掩护缩成一团。

5 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

6 partially   

adv.部分地，从某些方面讲

参考例句：

• The door was partially concealed by the drapes.门有一部分被门帘遮住了。
• The police managed to restore calm and the curfew was partially lifted.警方设法恢复了平静，宵禁部分解除。

7 offset   

n.分支，补偿；v.抵消，补偿

参考例句：

• Their wage increases would be offset by higher prices.他们增加的工资会被物价上涨所抵消。
• He put up his prices to offset the increased cost of materials.他提高了售价以补偿材料成本的增加。

8 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

9 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

10 hawkish   

adj. 鹰派的, 强硬派的

参考例句：

• My staff's advice that first day was amazingly hawkish. 在第一天，我的僚属们的意见是令人吃惊的鹰派意见。
• Antiwar groups fear Barack Obama may create hawkish Cabinet. 反战团体担心巴拉克·奥巴马可以创建强硬派内阁。