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TED演讲:我们的大问题(2)

时间:2018-11-02 02:12来源:互联网 提供网友:mapleleaf   字体: [ ]
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    (单词翻译:双击或拖选)

   Existential risk -- the second big problem.  存在风险——第二个重大问题。

  Existential risk is a threat to human survival, or to the long-term potential of our species.  存在风险是对人类生存,或对整个人类种群的长远潜能的一种威胁。
  Now, why do I say that this is a big problem?  为什么我会认为这是一个重大问题?
  Well, let's first look at the probability --  让我们来看看可能性——
  and this is very, very difficult to estimate  这非常难估量
  but there have been only four studies on this in recent years, which is surprising. 但近年来,这个领域只出现了四篇研究文章,这很让人吃惊。
  You would think that it would be of some interest  你可能会认为,既然厉害关系如此巨大,
  to try to find out more about this given that the stakes are so big,  那么在这个领域做研究一定是有意义的。
  but it's a very neglected area.  然而,这是一个被人们忽视的领域。
  But there have been four studies -- one by John Lesley, wrote a book on this. 但是,已经有了四篇研究——其中一篇由约翰·雷斯利所著,为这个问题写了一本书。
  He estimated a probability that we will fail to survive the current century: 50 percent. 据他估计,有50%的可能性我们会在这个世纪灭亡。
  Similarly, the Astronomer1 Royal, whom we heard speak yesterday,  类似的,皇家天文学家--我们昨天听过他的演讲--
  also has a 50 percent probability estimate.  的估算结果也是50%。
  Another author doesn't give any numerical estimate,  另外一个作者并没有给出任何数据估算,
  but says the probability is significant that it will fail.  但他指出,人类灭亡的可能性非常高。
  I wrote a long paper on this.  我就这个问题写了一篇长篇论文
  I said assigning a less than 20 percent probability would be a mistake in light of the current evidence we have. 我在文章里指出,根据现有的证据,任何低于20%的可能性估算都应该是错误的。
  Now, the exact figures here, we should take with a big grain of salt, 对于这里的具体数字,我们不应该全盘相信,
  but there seems to be a consensus2 that the risk is substantial.  但人们似乎对此达成共识,风险的确不小。
  Everybody who has looked at this and studied it agrees.  每个看过并研究过这方面的人,都会同意。
  Now, if we think about what just reducing  那么,如果我们考虑
  the probability of human extinction3 by just one percentage point, not very much 将人类灭绝的可能性几率只减少一个百分点,并不是很多
  so that's equivalent to 60 million lives saved,  那就相当于拯救了六千万的生命,
  if we just count the currently living people, the current generation.  而这只是计算现存的人类,当代人口。
  Now one percent of six billion people is equivalent to 60 million.  那么六十亿人的百分之一相当于六千万。
  So that's a large number.  这是一个很大的数字。
  If we were to take into account future generations  如果我们把未来的人口也算进来
  that will never come into existence if we blow ourselves up,  如果我们把自己毁灭了,未来人口也永不会存在,
  then the figure becomes astronomical4.  那么这数字就变成天文数字了。
  If we could eventually colonize5 a chunk6 of the universe -- the Virgo supercluster -- 如果我们最终可以开拓宇宙的一角为生存地,比如室女座超星系团
  maybe it will take us 100 million years to get there,  可能我们需要一亿年才能到达那儿,
  but if we go extinct we never will.  但如果我们灭亡了,我们永远也到不了
  Then, even a one percentage point reduction in the extinction risk 那么,即使是减少百分之一的灭绝风险,
  could be equivalent to this astronomical number -- 10 to the power of 32. 那将等同于这个极为庞大的数字——10的32次方。
  So if you take into account future generations as much as our own,  那么,如果你像关心我们自己一样关心我们的后代,
  every other moral imperative7 of philanthropic cost just becomes irrelevant8.  所有其他基于道义责任的慈善都变得无关紧要。
  The only thing you should focus on would be to reduce existential risk 你所应该关注的唯一事情就是减少生存风险
  because even the tiniest decrease in existential risk  因为即使只减少极少的一点生存风险,
  would just overwhelm any other benefit you could hope to achieve.  其带来的好处也可以覆盖其它任何你希望获得的利益。
  And even if you just look at the current people,  另外,如果你仅仅关注现在的人类,
  and ignore the potential that would be lost if we went extinct,  而忽略那些一旦我们灭绝后可能失去的潜能,
  it should still have a high priority.  减少存在风险也仍旧值得优先考虑。

点击收听单词发音收听单词发音  

1 astronomer DOEyh     
n.天文学家
参考例句:
  • A new star attracted the notice of the astronomer.新发现的一颗星引起了那位天文学家的注意。
  • He is reputed to have been a good astronomer.他以一个优秀的天文学者闻名于世。
2 consensus epMzA     
n.(意见等的)一致,一致同意,共识
参考例句:
  • Can we reach a consensus on this issue?我们能在这个问题上取得一致意见吗?
  • What is the consensus of opinion at the afternoon meeting?下午会议上一致的意见是什么?
3 extinction sPwzP     
n.熄灭,消亡,消灭,灭绝,绝种
参考例句:
  • The plant is now in danger of extinction.这种植物现在有绝种的危险。
  • The island's way of life is doomed to extinction.这个岛上的生活方式注定要消失。
4 astronomical keTyO     
adj.天文学的,(数字)极大的
参考例句:
  • He was an expert on ancient Chinese astronomical literature.他是研究中国古代天文学文献的专家。
  • Houses in the village are selling for astronomical prices.乡村的房价正在飙升。
5 colonize mqzzM     
v.建立殖民地,拓殖;定居,居于
参考例句:
  • Around 700 Arabs began to colonize East Africa.公元700年阿拉伯人开始把东非变为殖民地。
  • Japan used to colonize many countries in Asia.日本曾经殖民过许多亚洲国家。
6 chunk Kqwzz     
n.厚片,大块,相当大的部分(数量)
参考例句:
  • They had to be careful of floating chunks of ice.他们必须当心大块浮冰。
  • The company owns a chunk of farmland near Gatwick Airport.该公司拥有盖特威克机场周边的大片农田。
7 imperative BcdzC     
n.命令,需要;规则;祈使语气;adj.强制的;紧急的
参考例句:
  • He always speaks in an imperative tone of voice.他老是用命令的口吻讲话。
  • The events of the past few days make it imperative for her to act.过去这几天发生的事迫使她不得不立即行动。
8 irrelevant ZkGy6     
adj.不恰当的,无关系的,不相干的
参考例句:
  • That is completely irrelevant to the subject under discussion.这跟讨论的主题完全不相关。
  • A question about arithmetic is irrelevant in a music lesson.在音乐课上,一个数学的问题是风马牛不相及的。
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TAG标签:   TED演讲
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