2018年CRI 专家预测中国未来十年经济增长8%

Justin Lin Yifu, professor at the National School of Development at Peking University, said compared with high income countries, China has great potential to tap into in the area of industrial upgrading and technological¹ innovation because of late-comer advantage.

He made the comment at an economic forum² in Washington D.C. co-organized by Peterson Institute for International Economics and China Finance 40 Forum, a think tank in China.

Lin explained that late comer advantage will push China to learn from high income countries to improve productivity, thus unleashing³ economic growth momentum⁴, which has already been shown in the cases of Japan, Singapore and South Korea.

He said analyzing⁵ data from 2008 and relating that with the experiences of the above four Asian economies, he is confident to conclude that China will be able to achieve an 8% growth rate for the coming decade, but only on the condition that China fully⁶ utilizes⁷ this late comer advantage.

"In 2008, the per capita GDP measured by purchasing power parity⁸ was 21% of the US. And it was similar to Japan in 1951, Singapore in 1967 and Korea in 1977. And these four East Asian economies, they achieved 20 years of 8-9% growth. So that means if they can realize 8-9% growth for 20 years, that means China has 8% growth potential from 2008. And now ten years have passed but we still have ten years to come. I think the growth potential in China could be about 8% per year in the coming 10 years."

Nicholas Lardy is the Anthony Solomon Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

He said he agrees with Professor Lin, but also cautioned that China needs to address the financial instability brought by government directed lending to state owned enterprises.

"So I do tend to agree with Justin that there's still very substantial potential for China to grow at 8% or maybe even a little bit more, but I don't think this is going to happen if the current situation persists. China needs to return to a system in which bank lending is more commercially driven, which it had been in the 90s, in the 2000s, before the pattern changed after 2011. And it would require substantial reform of underperforming state owned enterprises."

The reform of SOEs in China was hotly contested at the forum, with some arguing that it represents the successful story of the Chinese model while others said it reflects an unhealthy relationship between government and market.

Qin Xiao is an academic advisor⁹ with China Finance 40 Forum and former chairman of China Merchants Group & China Merchants Bank.

He warned that if not taken care of, the problems with China's SOEs could not only wreck¹⁰ China's economy, but also have socio-political implications.

"State owned enterprises have been given the mandate¹¹ to implement¹² national strategies and serve as a tool for macroeconomic policy adjustment. As a result, they often obtain many explicit¹³ and implicit¹⁴ financial support and subsidies¹⁵, including low cost loan, free land allocation, fiscal¹⁶ of injection of assets and fund, and monopolies in many industries. All these advantages undermine fair market competition and deepen social inequalities."

The forum, the 3rd of its kind, also released the Jingshan Report, addressing issues confronting China's financial sector¹⁷ and calling for a proactive yet prudent¹⁸ opening up process for the sector.

1 technological   

adj.技术的；工艺的

参考例句：

• A successful company must keep up with the pace of technological change.一家成功的公司必须得跟上技术变革的步伐。
• Today,the pace of life is increasing with technological advancements.当今， 随着科技进步，生活节奏不断增快。

2 forum   

n.论坛，讨论会

参考例句：

• They're holding a forum on new ways of teaching history.他们正在举行历史教学讨论会。
• The organisation would provide a forum where problems could be discussed.这个组织将提供一个可以讨论问题的平台。

3 unleashing   

v.把（感情、力量等）释放出来，发泄( unleash的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• Company logos: making people's life better by unleashing Cummins power. 公司理念：以康明斯动力建设更美好的生活！ 来自互联网
• Sooner or later the dam will burst, unleashing catastrophic destruction. 否则堤坝将崩溃，酿成灾难。 来自互联网

4 momentum   

n.动力，冲力，势头；动量

参考例句：

• We exploit the energy and momentum conservation laws in this way.我们就是这样利用能量和动量守恒定律的。
• The law of momentum conservation could supplant Newton's third law.动量守恒定律可以取代牛顿第三定律。

5 analyzing   

v.分析；分析( analyze的现在分词 )；分解；解释；对…进行心理分析n.分析

参考例句：

• Analyzing the date of some socialist countries presents even greater problem s. 分析某些社会主义国家的统计数据，暴露出的问题甚至更大。 来自辞典例句
• He undoubtedly was not far off the mark in analyzing its predictions. 当然，他对其预测所作的分析倒也八九不离十。 来自辞典例句

6 fully   

adv.完全地，全部地，彻底地；充分地

参考例句：

• The doctor asked me to breathe in,then to breathe out fully.医生让我先吸气，然后全部呼出。
• They soon became fully integrated into the local community.他们很快就完全融入了当地人的圈子。

7 utilizes   

v.利用，使用( utilize的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• One highly successful approach utilizes a triplet aspheric lens array. 一种很成功的方法是利用一个三合非球面透镜阵列。 来自辞典例句
• The first utilizes a blend of finely ground ceramic powders. 第一种用的是一种磨细的陶瓷粉末混合物。 来自辞典例句

8 parity   

n.平价，等价，比价，对等

参考例句：

• The two currencies have now reached parity.这两种货币现已达到同等价值。
• Women have yet to achieve wage or occupational parity in many fields.女性在很多领域还没能争取到薪金、职位方面的平等。

9 advisor   

n.顾问，指导老师，劝告者

参考例句：

• They employed me as an advisor.他们聘请我当顾问。
• The professor is engaged as a technical advisor.这位教授被聘请为技术顾问。

10 wreck   

n.失事，遇难；沉船；vt.(船等)失事，遇难

参考例句：

• Weather may have been a factor in the wreck.天气可能是造成这次失事的原因之一。
• No one can wreck the friendship between us.没有人能够破坏我们之间的友谊。

11 mandate   

n.托管地；命令，指示

参考例句：

• The President had a clear mandate to end the war.总统得到明确的授权结束那场战争。
• The General Election gave him no such mandate.大选并未授予他这种权力。

12 implement   

n.(pl.)工具，器具；vt.实行，实施，执行

参考例句：

• Don't undertake a project unless you can implement it.不要承担一项计划，除非你能完成这项计划。
• The best implement for digging a garden is a spade.在花园里挖土的最好工具是铁锹。

13 explicit   

adj.详述的，明确的；坦率的；显然的

参考例句：

• She was quite explicit about why she left.她对自己离去的原因直言不讳。
• He avoids the explicit answer to us.他避免给我们明确的回答。

14 implicit   

a.暗示的，含蓄的，不明晰的，绝对的

参考例句：

• A soldier must give implicit obedience to his officers. 士兵必须绝对服从他的长官。
• Her silence gave implicit consent. 她的沉默表示默许。

15 subsidies   

n.补贴，津贴，补助金( subsidy的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• European agriculture ministers failed to break the deadlock over farm subsidies. 欧洲各国农业部长在农业补贴问题上未能打破僵局。
• Agricultural subsidies absorb about half the EU's income. 农业补贴占去了欧盟收入的大约一半。 来自《简明英汉词典》

16 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

17 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

18 prudent   

adj.谨慎的，有远见的，精打细算的

参考例句：

• A prudent traveller never disparages his own country.聪明的旅行者从不贬低自己的国家。
• You must school yourself to be modest and prudent.你要学会谦虚谨慎。