2019年CRI IMF预测2019年中国经济增长率为6.2%

China's economy is expected to grow by 6.2 percent this year and 6 percent in 2020, according to the estimates released yesterday by the International Monetary¹ Fund. The IMF also said that growth in China stabilized³ earlier in the year.

Kenneth Kang is Deputy Director of IMF's Asia & Pacific Department. He suggests that China's policy makers⁴ continue with the economy's structural⁵ reforms, including reforming state-owned enterprises and the opening up of the service sector⁶.

"Liberalizing product and labor⁷ markets and further opening up the service sector would increase competition and flexibility⁸ and allow China to benefit further from globalization. SOE reform should continue and help achieve competitive neutrality by hardening SOE budget constraints⁹ and removing their implicit¹⁰ guarantees. Managing China's increasingly systemic and complex economy requires modernizing¹¹ policy frameworks towards more market-based and transparent¹² frameworks."

He also says that despite the recent tariff¹³ hikes by the United States, the stimulus¹⁴ measures that China has announced so far this year are sufficient to sustain economic growth through 2019 and 2020. However, he also warned that uncertainty¹⁵ around the trade tensions remain high.

"No additional policy easing is needed, provided there are no further increases in tariffs¹⁶ or a significant slowdown in economic growth. Exchange rate flexibility should increase to facilitate adjustment to the new external environment. However, if trade tensions escalate¹⁷ further, putting at risk economic and financial stability, some additional policy easing would be warranted. For example, a fiscal¹⁸ expansion, which is centrally financed, pro-rebalancing, and targeted to low-income households, could be used to stabilize² the economy."

Kang has urged China and the United States to resolve their trade issues by coming to an agreement that supports the international trading system and avoids the outcome of managed trade.

"As we have mentioned many times before, everybody loses in a protracted¹⁹ trade war. If trade is threatened, if trade is damaged, growth will suffer. For these reasons, we encourage all parties involved to work together for a durable²⁰ resolution that supports an open, stable, transparent rules-based international trade system. This is in everyone's interest, including China of course."

The IMF team will deliver its findings to the IMF's Executive Board for further deliberations.

Its statement comes as the World Bank on Tuesday lowered its global growth forecast for the year to 2.6 percent, while maintaining its growth projection²¹ for China at 6.2 percent.

For CRI, this is Li Yi.

国际货币基金组织昨天发布报告，预计今年中国经济增速为6.2%，2020年经济增速为6%。国际货币基金组织还表示，今年中国经济发展会更早趋于稳定。

肯尼思·康是国际货币基金组织亚太区副主任。他建议中国决策者继续推进经济结构改革，包括国有企业改革和进一步开放服务业。

“解放产品和劳动力市场、进一步开放服务行业，有助于刺激竞争、增强活力，也能够让中国更好地从全球化中获益。国有企业改革应该继续进行，同时通过硬约束国有企业预算和削减隐性担保来实现竞争中性。管理中国日趋系统化和复杂化的经济，需要实现现代化的政策框架，建立更加市场化、透明性的政策框架。”

他同时提到，尽管美国最近提高了关税，但中国采取的刺激措施能维持其在2019年和2020年的经济增长。然而，他提醒称，贸易紧张局势并未减弱，不确定性仍然存在。

“如果关税不进一步提高，经济增长不显著放缓，就不需要进一步放松政策。应提高汇率灵活性，以促进对新的外部环境作出调整。如果贸易紧张局势进一步升级，给经济和金融稳定造成风险，中国有必要实施一些额外的政策放松措施。比如，中国可以通过财政扩张稳定经济，这种扩张将由中央财政提供资金，以有利于再平衡的方式实施，并针对低收入家庭。”

肯尼思·康呼吁中美双方通过达成协议来解决贸易问题，这项协议要遵循自愿原则且不能影响国际贸易体系的稳定。

“我们不止一次提到，在长期的贸易战中没有赢家。如果贸易受到威胁和破坏，经济发展就会受影响。为此，我们呼吁各方共同努力，达成一项长期协议，推动建立更加开放、稳定、透明和基于规则的国际贸易体系。这符合包括中国在内的所有国家的利益。”

国际货币基金组织小组将把调查结果提交执行董事会进行审议。

周二，世界银行将今年全球经济增长预测下调至2.6%，将2019年中国经济增长预期维持在6.2%不变。

CRI新闻，李易（音译）报道。

1 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

2 stabilize   

vt.（使）稳定，使稳固，使稳定平衡；vi.稳定

参考例句：

• They are eager to stabilize currencies.他们急于稳定货币。
• His blood pressure tended to stabilize.他的血压趋向稳定。

3 stabilized   

v.（使）稳定， （使）稳固( stabilize的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The patient's condition stabilized. 患者的病情稳定下来。
• His blood pressure has stabilized. 他的血压已经稳定下来了。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》

4 makers   

n.制造者，制造商（maker的复数形式）

参考例句：

• The makers of the product assured us that there had been no sacrifice of quality. 这一产品的制造商向我们保证说他们没有牺牲质量。
• The makers are about to launch out a new product. 制造商们马上要生产一种新产品。 来自《简明英汉词典》

5 structural   

adj.构造的，组织的，建筑（用）的

参考例句：

• The storm caused no structural damage.风暴没有造成建筑结构方面的破坏。
• The North American continent is made up of three great structural entities.北美大陆是由三个构造单元组成的。

6 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

7 labor   

n.劳动，努力，工作，劳工；分娩；vi.劳动，努力，苦干；vt.详细分析；麻烦

参考例句：

• We are never late in satisfying him for his labor.我们从不延误付给他劳动报酬。
• He was completely spent after two weeks of hard labor.艰苦劳动两周后，他已经疲惫不堪了。

8 flexibility   

n.柔韧性，弹性，（光的）折射性，灵活性

参考例句：

• Her great strength lies in her flexibility.她的优势在于她灵活变通。
• The flexibility of a man's muscles will lessen as he becomes old.人老了肌肉的柔韧性将降低。

9 constraints   

强制( constraint的名词复数 )； 限制； 约束

参考例句：

• Data and constraints can easily be changed to test theories. 信息库中的数据和限制条件可以轻易地改变以检验假设。 来自英汉非文学 - 科学史
• What are the constraints that each of these imply for any design? 这每种产品的要求和约束对于设计意味着什么？ 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓

10 implicit   

a.暗示的，含蓄的，不明晰的，绝对的

参考例句：

• A soldier must give implicit obedience to his officers. 士兵必须绝对服从他的长官。
• Her silence gave implicit consent. 她的沉默表示默许。

11 modernizing   

使现代化，使适应现代需要( modernize的现在分词 )； 现代化，使用现代方法

参考例句：

• Modernizing a business to increase its profitability and competitiveness is a complicated affair. 使企业现代化，从而达到增加利润，增强竞争力的目的，是一件复杂的事情。
• The young engineer had a large share in modernizing the factory. 这位年轻工程师在工厂现代化的过程中尽了很大的“力”。

12 transparent   

adj.明显的，无疑的；透明的

参考例句：

• The water is so transparent that we can see the fishes swimming.水清澈透明，可以看到鱼儿游来游去。
• The window glass is transparent.窗玻璃是透明的。

13 tariff   

n.关税，税率；(旅馆、饭店等)价目表，收费表

参考例句：

• There is a very high tariff on jewelry.宝石类的关税率很高。
• The government is going to lower the tariff on importing cars.政府打算降低进口汽车的关税。

14 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

15 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

16 tariffs   

关税制度； 关税( tariff的名词复数 )； 关税表； （旅馆或饭店等的）收费表； 量刑标准

参考例句：

• British industry was sheltered from foreign competition by protective tariffs. 保护性关税使英国工业免受国际竞争影响。
• The new tariffs have put a stranglehold on trade. 新的关税制对开展贸易极为不利。

17 escalate   

v.(使)逐步增长(或发展)，(使)逐步升级

参考例句：

• It would tempt Israel's neighbors to escalate their demands.它将诱使以色列的邻国不断把他们的要求升级。
• Defeat could cause one side or other to escalate the conflict.失败可能会导致其中一方将冲突升级。

18 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

19 protracted   

adj.拖延的；延长的v.拖延“protract”的过去式和过去分词

参考例句：

• The war was protracted for four years. 战争拖延了四年。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• We won victory through protracted struggle. 经过长期的斗争，我们取得了胜利。 来自《简明英汉词典》

20 durable   

adj.持久的，耐久的

参考例句：

• This raincoat is made of very durable material.这件雨衣是用非常耐用的料子做的。
• They frequently require more major durable purchases.他们经常需要购买耐用消费品。

21 projection   

n.发射，计划，突出部分

参考例句：

• Projection takes place with a minimum of awareness or conscious control.投射在最少的知觉或意识控制下发生。
• The projection of increases in number of house-holds is correct.对户数增加的推算是正确的。