【英语时差8,16】观测选择

 Observational selection, on this Moment of Science.   D: Grubs, on today's moment of science. Grubs are really cool because if you squish 'em . . . oh, I give up. I can't read this.

Y: Why not?

D: I'm sorry, Ya?l, I'm just discouraged. You see, for years now I've been telling people fun little facts about everyday science.

Y: Yes?

D: And science is all about rationality. It's about figuring out the way things really work. But my belief has been shaken since I heard about Michael Drosnin's book The Bible Code.

Y: Oh, that's the bestseller where the author made strings¹ of letters by taking, say, every 50th letter from a famous bible passage. Then he claimed those strings predicted the future.

D: That's the one! The new strings of letters keep producing words and even phrases! It can't be a coincidence.

Y: Can't it? Statisticians call this kind of thing "observational selection." That means if you are allowed to ignore all the data that add up to nothing, it's actually easy to come up with apparently² amazing coincidences. An Australian computer scientist named Brendan McKay set out recently to demonstrate that the same thing can be done with any long book. He applied³ Drosnin's observational selection technique to Moby Dick and produced such eerie⁴ phrases as "M L King" next to "To be shot by them" and "Princess Di" next to "mortal in the jaws⁵ of death."D: Hmmm . . . so by throwing away all the strings that spell nothing, you can just wait until eventually a coincidence comes along. That's the error of observational selection.

Y: Right.

D: OK, I guess I can read about grubs.   

1 strings   

n.弦

参考例句：

• He sat on the bed,idly plucking the strings of his guitar.他坐在床上，随意地拨着吉他的弦。
• She swept her fingers over the strings of the harp.她用手指划过竖琴的琴弦。

2 apparently   

adv.显然地；表面上，似乎

参考例句：

• An apparently blind alley leads suddenly into an open space.山穷水尽，豁然开朗。
• He was apparently much surprised at the news.他对那个消息显然感到十分惊异。

3 applied   

adj.应用的；v.应用，适用

参考例句：

• She plans to take a course in applied linguistics.她打算学习应用语言学课程。
• This cream is best applied to the face at night.这种乳霜最好晚上擦脸用。

4 eerie   

adj.怪诞的；奇异的；可怕的；胆怯的

参考例句：

• It's eerie to walk through a dark wood at night.夜晚在漆黑的森林中行走很是恐怖。
• I walked down the eerie dark path.我走在那条漆黑恐怖的小路上。

5 jaws   

n.口部；嘴

参考例句：

• The antelope could not escape the crocodile's gaping jaws. 那只羚羊无法从鱷鱼张开的大口中逃脱。
• The scored jaws of a vise help it bite the work. 台钳上有刻痕的虎钳牙帮助它紧咬住工件。