访谈录 2008-12-02&12-04 亚洲经济前景猜想

We've heard about the government helping¹ out Citigroup yesterday. Today the US Federal Reserve announced that they are going to help infuse 800 billion dollars, (Right. ) what else is going to be changing the markets in the coming weeks? Well, certainly the efforts that have been most recently announced are aimed at trying to get mortgage rates down. Because although we've seen interest rates cuts significantly over the last year or so, mortgage rates have stayed stubbornly high, so the Fed's latest action is aimed at trying to get borrowing cost down for households. And it's eh, as we get closer to short term interest rates getting to zero, you are gonna to see more and more, I guess, unorthodox measures being taken by the Fed. In addition, I think what analysts² are looking for, what investment managers are looking for, are more fiscal³ stimulus⁴ and we are probably gonna see some sort of package announced in Europe, um, today or later this week and we expect to see fiscal stimulus in the US as well.

And another big headline is the big merger⁶, they have been talking about it for months, BHP and Rio Tinto, obviously not going to merge⁵, where do commodities stand right now? Well, certainly commodities had a fantastic run, and we’ve seen a lot of the heat taken out of that market. Partly as a result of investors⁷ believing that economic slowdown is gonna lower the demand for commodities, but also because commodities have really emerged yet again as being a financial asset with a lot of speculation⁸ in that market, and a lot of the heat that's been taken out has been a reaction to the deleverage in the financial system, which is not only affecting commodities but is also affecting liquidity⁹ in the financial system.

And talking about forecast, IMF is cutting its GDP for Asia to 6%. And the International Monetary¹⁰ Fund basically has said, you know, it's pushing more countries to do push for economic stimulus plans, and you said, you know we might hear one for, uh , out of the European, (Yes. ) who else could we? Well, we have already seen a massive package in China which amounts to sort of 17, 18% of GDP. Whether or not the mainland can actually spend that amount of money, it takes time to transmit the money into projects, into fiscal stimulus programs, that remains¹¹ to be seen, but we are gonna see, need to see a more coordinated¹² effort, particularly in the US and with Europe to try and stimulate¹³ demand, trying to get that money into the market in terms of supporting the consumer, particularly in the US, before we are gonna see business confidence come back. And that's really what investors are looking at now. They are looking through next year's earnings¹⁴ really, at the macro numbers. Weak job data, you know, prices, CPI reducing, so you are looking at prospects¹⁵ of deflation, you know, weaker wage growth which is really not supportive of growth as we look out into 09 and 10.

Let’s concentrate on the confidence, ah, you know, there are some companies that are doing well, (indeed) ah gold miners, pharmaceuticals¹⁶, (Yes. ) which other companies? Well, there're plenty of companies with strong cash flows, particularly in this region,  you’ve got companies both here in Europe and selectively in the US on very high yields as a result of the strong cash flows, and it's pretty much across most sectors¹⁷. You’ve got to be pretty selective. Because in this financial downturn, there are fewer analysts out there covering companies, because the investment banks have pulled back from their, some of their core activities, so you’ve gotta get down and rescrub the data and understand what's going on. But there are opportunities, but at the moment it's basically, you know, one brush across the whole market. The markets have been de-rated. There are opportunities there, but until confidence returns, until we see some of these measures take hold, we are not gonna see market move up in a substantial way.

1 helping   

n.食物的一份&adj.帮助人的，辅助的

参考例句：

• The poor children regularly pony up for a second helping of my hamburger. 那些可怜的孩子们总是要求我把我的汉堡包再给他们一份。
• By doing this, they may at times be helping to restore competition. 这样一来, 他在某些时候,有助于竞争的加强。

2 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

3 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

4 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

5 merge   

v.(使)结合，(使)合并，(使)合为一体

参考例句：

• I can merge my two small businesses into a large one.我可以将我的两家小商店合并为一家大商行。
• The directors have decided to merge the two small firms together.董事们已决定把这两家小商号归并起来。

6 merger   

n.企业合并，并吞

参考例句：

• Acceptance of the offer is the first step to a merger.对这项提议的赞同是合并的第一步。
• Shareholders will be voting on the merger of the companies.股东们将投票表决公司合并问题。

7 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

8 speculation   

n.思索，沉思；猜测；投机

参考例句：

• Her mind is occupied with speculation.她的头脑忙于思考。
• There is widespread speculation that he is going to resign.人们普遍推测他要辞职。

9 liquidity   

n.流动性，偿债能力，流动资产

参考例句：

• The bank has progressively increased its liquidity.银行逐渐地增加其流动资产。
• The demand for and the supply of credit is closely linked to changes in liquidity.信用的供求和流动资金的变化有密切关系。

10 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

11 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

12 coordinated   

adj.协调的

参考例句：

• The sound has to be coordinated with the picture. 声音必须和画面协调一致。
• The numerous existing statutes are complicated and poorly coordinated. 目前繁多的法令既十分复杂又缺乏快调。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法

13 stimulate   

vt.刺激，使兴奋；激励，使…振奋

参考例句：

• Your encouragement will stimulate me to further efforts.你的鼓励会激发我进一步努力。
• Success will stimulate the people for fresh efforts.成功能鼓舞人们去作新的努力。

14 earnings   

n.工资收人；利润，利益，所得

参考例句：

• That old man lives on the earnings of his daughter.那个老人靠他女儿的收入维持生活。
• Last year there was a 20% decrease in his earnings.去年他的收入减少了20%。

15 prospects   

n.希望，前途(恒为复数)

参考例句：

• There is a mood of pessimism in the company about future job prospects. 公司中有一种对工作前景悲观的情绪。
• They are less sanguine about the company's long-term prospects. 他们对公司的远景不那么乐观。

16 pharmaceuticals   

n.医药品；药物( pharmaceutical的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• the development of new pharmaceuticals 新药的开发
• The companies are pouring trillions of yen into biotechnology research,especially for pharmaceuticals and new seeds. 这些公司将大量资金投入生物工艺学研究，尤其是药品和新种子方面。 来自《简明英汉词典》

17 sectors   

n.部门( sector的名词复数 )；领域；防御地区；扇形

参考例句：

• Berlin was divided into four sectors after the war. 战后柏林分成了4 个区。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Industry and agriculture are the two important sectors of the national economy. 工业和农业是国民经济的两个重要部门。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》