跳舞的小人（1）

The Dancing Men

The Adventure of the Dancing Men

Arthur Conan Doyle

Holmes had been seated for some hours in silence with his long, thin back curved over a chemical vessel in which he was brewing a particularly malodorous product. His head was sunk upon his breast, and he looked from my point of view like a strange, lank bird, with dull grey plumage and a black top-knot.

“So, Watson,” said he, suddenly, “you do not propose to invest in South African securities?”

I gave a start of astonishment. Accustomed as I was to Holmes's curious faculties, this sudden intrusion into my most intimate thoughts was utterly inexplicable.

“How on earth do you know that?” I asked.

He wheeled round upon his stool, with a steaming test-tube in his hand and a gleam of amusement in his deep-set eyes.

“Now, Watson, confess yourself utterly taken aback,” said he.

“I am.”

“I ought to make you sign a paper to that effect.”

“Why?”

“Because in five minutes you will say that it is all so absurdly simple.”

“I am sure that I shall say nothing of the kind.”

“You see, my dear Watson”—he propped his test-tube in the rack and began to lecture with the air of a professor addressing his class—“it is not really difficult to construct a series of inferences, each dependent upon its predecessor and each simple in itself. If, after doing so, one simply knocks out all the central inferences and presents one's audience with the starting-point and the conclusion, one may produce a startling, though possibly a meretricious, effect. Now, it was not really difficult, by an inspection of the groove between your left forefinger and thumb, to feel sure that you did not propose to invest your small capital in the goldfields.”

“I see no connection.”

跳舞的小人

福尔摩斯一声不响地坐了好几个钟头了。他弯着瘦长的身一子，埋头盯住他面前的一只化学试管，试管里正煮着一种特别恶臭的化合物。他脑袋垂在胸前的样子，从我这里望去，就象一只瘦长的怪鸟，全身披着深灰的羽一毛一，头上的冠一毛一却是黑的。

他忽然说：“华生，原来你不打算在南非投资了，是不是？”

我吃了一惊。虽然我已一习一惯了福尔摩斯的各种奇特本领，但他这样突然道破我的心事，仍令我无法解释。

“你怎么会知道？"我问他。

他在圆凳上转过身来，手里拿着那支冒气的试管。从他深陷的眼睛里，微微露出想笑出来的样子。

“现在，华生，你承认你是吃惊了，"他说。

“我是吃惊了。”

“我应该叫你把这句话写下来，签上你的名字。”

“为什么？”

“因为过了五分钟，你又会说这太简单了。”

“我一定不说。”

“你要知道，我亲一爱一的华生，"他把试管放回架子上去，开始用教授对他班上的学生讲课的口气往下说，“作出一串推理来，并且使每个推理取决于它前面的那个推理而本身又简单明了，实际上这并不难。然后，只要把中间的推理统统去掉，对你的听众仅仅宣布起点和结论，就可以得到惊人的、也可能是虚夸的效果。所以，我看了你左手的虎口，就觉得有把握说你没有打算把你那一小笔资本投到金矿中去，这真的不难推断出来。”

“我看不出有什么关系。”