【趣谈英语】生日矛盾-The Birthday Paradox

 Pre-Listening Vocabulary

• paradox¹: a statement that seems senseless, even though it’s possible or true
• probable: likely
• random²: not planned

The Birthday Paradox

 

In a classroom of 23 people, there is a 50-50 chance that two of them have the same birthday. This is called the Birthday Paradox (also known as The Birthday Problem). While it may seem senseless that two people out of 23 share a birthday, it is actually quite probable. The reason it seems unlikely is because of how you think of it. You think that it’s unlikely that you have the same birthday as someone else. You don’t think about the chances of the other 22 people in the room. If you think of it that way, you can see how the probability greatly increases. The first person has 22 chances to find a match on the attendance list. The second person only has 21 chances. When you get to the end of the list, you can add up all of the chances. Eventually, you find that there are 253 chances of finding matching birthdays in a random class of 23 people. Next time you’re in a group of 20-30 people, test out this probability theory.

1 paradox   

n.似乎矛盾却正确的说法；自相矛盾的人(物)

参考例句：

• The story contains many levels of paradox.这个故事存在多重悖论。
• The paradox is that Japan does need serious education reform.矛盾的地方是日本确实需要教育改革。

2 random   

adj.随机的；任意的；n.偶然的(或随便的)行动

参考例句：

• The list is arranged in a random order.名单排列不分先后。
• On random inspection the meat was found to be bad.经抽查，发现肉变质了。