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经济学人124:地震学与海啸 掀起新浪潮

时间:2013-12-04 02:32来源:互联网 提供网友:mapleleaf   字体: [ ]
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   Science and Technology Seismology and tsunamis2 Making waves

  科技 地震学与海啸 掀起新浪潮
  A better tsunami1-prediction system is now under development
  更精准的海啸预测系统现已在开发中
  GEOLOGISTS3 have long known that some marine4 earthquakes generate fierce tsunamis and some do not. But, as the situation in Japan makes painfully clear, there is no good way for people being tossed around by a tremor5 to know the difference until a wave arrives. A new earthquake-monitoring system developed by Andrew Newman and Jaime Convers at the Georgia Institute of Technology may, however, help to change that.
  地质学家们早已知道有的海洋地震会引起强烈海啸,而有的则不会。但是,日本的惨痛教训告诉我们,被地震震得惊慌失控的人们根本意识不到一场海啸即将到来(在海啸到来之前,被地震震得惊惶失措的人们对此一无所知。)。而现在,由乔治亚理工学院的安德鲁?纽曼与亚伊梅?康弗斯共同研发的最新地震监测系统有望改变现状。
  During an earthquake, the Earth's crust is uplifted. If the epicentre is on the seabed, that also lifts the water above the bed, creating a wave. However, the size of this wave varies with the nature of the uplift.
  地震时,地壳板块隆升。如果震中位于海底,板块运动带动上方海水起伏,形成波浪。波浪大小因板块隆升性质而定。
  For tsunami-generating purposes, earthquakes can generally be divided into two sorts. Deep ones (as a rule of thumb, those below 20km, or 12 miles) generate small or non-existent tsunamis because their uplifting effects are absorbed by the overburden. Shallow ones (above 20km), whose full crust-displacing force is felt at the surface, are the danger. The problem is deciding which is which. Once all the data are in, an earthquake's depth can be worked out with reasonable accuracy. But that takes time. The recent Japanese quake, for example, was thought initially6 to have happened 83km down. The latest measurements suggests its depth was actually 30km. Normally, that would still put it in the class of safe earthquakes, but it was so powerful that the usual rules did not apply.
  按照是否引发海啸,地震可分两类。一是深震(一般在20km或12英里以下),隆升通常被表层所吸收,因此不引发海啸或只引发小型海啸。二是浅震(20km以上),由于地表震感强烈,因此也更危险。当前的问题是如何区分这两者。只要有全面的数据,则可较精准地测算地震的深度。然而,这一过程需花费一定时间。例如,近期日本地震最初深度测算为地下83km,而最近的一次测算结果却显示,深度实为30km。通常来说,30km仍可划入安全等级。但此次地震能量巨大,以往的经验概不管用。
  The secret of the new method is that depth changes an earthquake's character in ways other than just its tsunami-generating propensity7. The rupture8 in the rock that causes a deep earthquake propagates rapidly—at about 3km a second. A shallow rupture moves more slowly: 1?km a second is common. The speed seems related to the rigidity10 of the rock that is rupturing11, and deep rock, which is under more pressure, is more rigid9. Shallow rocks bend, and that slows the rupture down. The effect is to give seismologists a tool they can use to make an instant estimate of an earthquake's depth and thus, if it is submarine, the risk of its creating a big tsunami.
  新系统的秘密在于地震深度对地震性质的改变不仅仅停留在是否引发海啸的问题上。岩层断裂引发深震传播速度很快——大约3km/秒。而浅震传播速度较慢:一般约1.5km/秒。速度可能与断裂岩层的坚硬程度有关,深层岩体受压力更大,也更坚硬。浅层岩体有韧度,可减缓断裂。地震学家可据此迅速估算地震深度,如果是海洋地震,还能估算地震是否引发强烈海啸。
  The system Dr Newman and Mr Convers have developed taps into hundreds of seismic12 monitoring stations around the world. When an earthquake is detected, the software immediately looks at the size of the tremor and the location of its epicentre. If the quake's magnitude is greater than 6.5 and the epicentre is underwater, it then requests information from the relevant stations on how long the earthquake took from beginning to end. That allows it to work out how quickly energy was released by the earthquake, and thus how fast the rupture propagated. An energy-release rate indicating a rupture rate of 1?km a second or less sets the alarm bells ringing, for the earthquake has probably spawned13 a tsunami—though the system is also sensitive to the actual earthquake magnitude, and adjusts accordingly, so it did not miss the tsunami-creating potential of the Japanese earthquake either.
  纽曼博士与康弗斯先生研发的新系统接入了世界各地几百所地震监测站。当检测到地震时,该系统软件立即测算地震规模与震中位置。如果级数超过6.5级且震中位于水下,系统则要求相关监测站报送地震全程持续时间。这一信息可帮助计算地震能量释放速度,并以此计算岩层断裂速度。岩层断裂速度达1.5km/秒以下的能量释放速度将会拉响警报,而这时极有可能引发海啸——尽管如此,该系统也能检测出地震级数并作出相应调整,因此也检测出了日本地震会引发海啸的风险。
  The two researchers tried their invention out last year and analysed a great many quakes, including one of magnitude 7.8 that happened on October 25th in western Indonesia. The epicentre was 70km from the Mentawai islands, and the quake was felt there only weakly. But it still raised a devastating14 tsunami (see picture above) that killed more than 400 islanders.
  两位研究者去年对该发明进行了测试,用以分析了许多地震,包括去年10月25日印尼西部发生的里氏7.8级地震。震中位于距民大威群岛70km处,岛上只有轻微震感。但是,地震随后引发了一次破坏力极强的海啸(见上图),导致400多位岛民死亡。
  The system quickly detected this quake and the two researchers reported recently in Geophysical Research Letters that it automatically identified the tsunami threat 8? minutes after the earthquake began. It then ran a series of checks, and after 16? minutes was completely certain that conditions were right for a tsunami to form. Since it took 35 minutes for the tsunami to come ashore15, the system could, had it been used to sound the alarm, have given people 18? minutes to flee. Unfortunately, it was not then attached to any sort of alarm that could let the Mentawai islanders know that they were in danger.
  该系统迅速检测到印尼地震,两位研究者近期在向《地理物理研究快报》的报告中指出,系统在地震开始后8.5分钟自动检测到震后海啸威胁。随后,系统启动了一系列检查程序,震后16.5分钟便完全确定海啸即将发生。因为海啸将在震后35分钟后到达,如果使用该系统发出警报,则为人们赢得了18.5分钟宝贵的逃生时间。不幸的是,该系统当时还未与警报系统结合,因此无法及时通知民大威群岛岛民海啸险情。
  With luck, such a lack of warning will not happen again. By the summer the system should be hooked up to alarms around the world, and will be able to determine tsunami risk within seven minutes of a shock being detected. It will then be up to local authorities to have evacuation plans in place. But they will no longer be able to say they did not see it coming.
  而幸运的是,缺乏警报机制的这种情况以后不会再有了。今年夏天之前,该系统将会与全世界警报系统相连接,并将会在检测到地震后7分钟内确定海啸发生的概率。随后则由地方政府开展撤离计划。到那时,政府便不可能再推脱说不知道海啸会来了。

点击收听单词发音收听单词发音  

1 tsunami bpAyo     
n.海啸
参考例句:
  • Powerful quake sparks tsunami warning in Japan.大地震触发了日本的海啸预警。
  • Coastlines all around the Indian Ocean inundated by a huge tsunami.大海啸把印度洋沿岸地区都淹没了。
2 tsunamis a759fe8c9bbe15580d54b753ecec1e73     
n.海啸( tsunami的名词复数 )
参考例句:
  • Our oceans are alive with earthquakes, volcanoes, and more recently, tsunamis. 海中充满着地震、火山,包括最近发生的海啸。 来自常春藤生活英语杂志-2006年2月号
  • Please tell me something more about tsunamis! 请您给我讲讲海啸吧! 来自辞典例句
3 geologists 1261592151f6aa40819f7687883760a2     
地质学家,地质学者( geologist的名词复数 )
参考例句:
  • Geologists uncovered the hidden riches. 地质学家发现了地下的宝藏。
  • Geologists study the structure of the rocks. 地质学家研究岩石结构。
4 marine 77Izo     
adj.海的;海生的;航海的;海事的;n.水兵
参考例句:
  • Marine creatures are those which live in the sea. 海洋生物是生存在海里的生物。
  • When the war broke out,he volunteered for the Marine Corps.战争爆发时,他自愿参加了海军陆战队。
5 tremor Tghy5     
n.震动,颤动,战栗,兴奋,地震
参考例句:
  • There was a slight tremor in his voice.他的声音有点颤抖。
  • A slight earth tremor was felt in California.加利福尼亚发生了轻微的地震。
6 initially 273xZ     
adv.最初,开始
参考例句:
  • The ban was initially opposed by the US.这一禁令首先遭到美国的反对。
  • Feathers initially developed from insect scales.羽毛最初由昆虫的翅瓣演化而来。
7 propensity mtIyk     
n.倾向;习性
参考例句:
  • He has a propensity for drinking too much alcohol.他有酗酒的倾向。
  • She hasn't reckoned on his propensity for violence.她不曾料到他有暴力倾向。
8 rupture qsyyc     
n.破裂;(关系的)决裂;v.(使)破裂
参考例句:
  • I can rupture a rule for a friend.我可以为朋友破一次例。
  • The rupture of a blood vessel usually cause the mark of a bruise.血管的突然破裂往往会造成外伤的痕迹。
9 rigid jDPyf     
adj.严格的,死板的;刚硬的,僵硬的
参考例句:
  • She became as rigid as adamant.她变得如顽石般的固执。
  • The examination was so rigid that nearly all aspirants were ruled out.考试很严,几乎所有的考生都被淘汰了。
10 rigidity HDgyg     
adj.钢性,坚硬
参考例句:
  • The rigidity of the metal caused it to crack.这金属因刚度强而产生裂纹。
  • He deplored the rigidity of her views.他痛感她的观点僵化。
11 rupturing 790445cdfb0cc251ef768c80651593ab     
v.(使)破裂( rupture的现在分词 );(使体内组织等)断裂;使(友好关系)破裂;使绝交
参考例句:
  • The second major method of chemically rupturing cells is solubilization by detergents. 第二种是利用表面活性剂的增溶法。 来自互联网
  • Bile salts are unusually effective at rupturing cell walls. 胆汁酸盐对于破坏细胞壁通常很有效。 来自互联网
12 seismic SskyM     
a.地震的,地震强度的
参考例句:
  • Earthquakes produce two types of seismic waves.地震产生两种地震波。
  • The latest seismic activity was also felt in northern Kenya.肯尼亚北部也感觉到了最近的地震活动。
13 spawned f3659a6561090f869f5f32f7da4b950e     
(鱼、蛙等)大量产(卵)( spawn的过去式和过去分词 ); 大量生产
参考例句:
  • The band's album spawned a string of hit singles. 这支乐队的专辑繁衍出一连串走红的单曲唱片。
  • The computer industry has spawned a lot of new companies. 由于电脑工业的发展,许多新公司纷纷成立。
14 devastating muOzlG     
adj.毁灭性的,令人震惊的,强有力的
参考例句:
  • It is the most devastating storm in 20 years.这是20年来破坏性最大的风暴。
  • Affairs do have a devastating effect on marriages.婚外情确实会对婚姻造成毁灭性的影响。
15 ashore tNQyT     
adv.在(向)岸上,上岸
参考例句:
  • The children got ashore before the tide came in.涨潮前,孩子们就上岸了。
  • He laid hold of the rope and pulled the boat ashore.他抓住绳子拉船靠岸。
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TAG标签:   经济学人  海啸
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