经济学人131:地震学上获取的灵感预测犯罪行为

 　　Science and Technology Policing The aftershocks of crime

　　科技 治安 犯罪余震

　　An idea borrowed from seismology may help to predict criminal activity

　　从地震学上获取的灵感或许能预测犯罪行为

　　LOS ANGELES is one of the most under-policed cities in America. With a mere¹ 26 officers for every 10,000 residents (Chicago, by comparison, has 46), the Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD) needs all the help it can get.

　　洛杉矶是美国警力最不足的城市之一，每一万个市民只分配了26名警察（相比之下，芝加哥是46名），因此洛杉矶警局急需各方支援。

　　That help may be at hand, with a modification² of technology used to predict another type of threat that the city is prone³ to: the aftershocks from earthquakes. Big earthquakes are unpredictable. Once they have happened, however, they are usually followed by further tremors⁴, and the pattern of these is tractable⁵.

　　支援也许就近在咫尺，只要将一项技术修改一下便可。这项技术原本是用来预测余震的——这个城市很容易受到的另一种灾难。大地震是无法预测的，但是大地震发生后随之而来的余震模式却是可以掌控的。

　　George Mohler, a mathematician⁶ at Santa Clara University, in California, thinks something similar is true of crimes. There is often a pattern of "aftercrimes" in the wake of an initial one. The similarity with earthquakes intrigued⁷ him and he wondered if the mathematical formulas that seismologists employ to predict aftershocks were applicable to aftercrimes, too.

　　加利福尼亚州的圣克拉拉大学的数学家乔治·默赫勒（George Mohler）认为，余震和犯罪有着相似之处。在初始犯罪后，常会尾随一种"犯罪后效应"模式。这种和地震的相似性激起了他的兴趣，于是他想，如果地震学家应用的预测余震的数学公式应用到犯罪后效应中，又会如何呢？

　　To test this idea, he and a team of researchers from the University of California, Los Angeles, adapted a computer program used by seismologists to calculate the likelihood of aftershocks. They then seeded it with actual LAPD data on 2,803 residential⁸ burglaries that occurred in an 18km-by-18km region of the San Fernando valley, one of the city's largest districts, during 2004. Using the seismological algorithms, the computer calculated which city blocks were likely to experience the highest number of burglaries the next day, and thus which 5% of homes within the area were at particular risk of being broken into. In one test the program accurately⁹ identified a high-risk portion of the city in which, had it been adequately patrolled, police could have prevented a quarter of the burglaries that took place in the whole area that day.

　　为了测试这一想法，他和一队来自加利福尼亚大学的研究人员采用了一套地震学家用来计算余震可能性的电脑程序，输入了2004年，在圣费尔南多谷（洛杉矶最大的区之一）中面积为18*18km2的区域里发生的2803起住宅爆窃案的警方数据。通过地震学的运算法则，电脑计算出了哪些街区在第二天可能会遭到大批盗窃，因此区域内5%的住宅都冒有很大被盗的风险。在一项测试中，这个程序精确地辨识出了该市的一块高风险区，而如果巡逻充足，警方本可以在那一天阻止该地区四分之一的盗窃案。

　　In addition to modelling burglary, Dr Mohler examined three gang rivalries¹⁰ in Los Angeles, using data from 1999 to 2002, and discovered that similar patterns emerge from gang violence as retaliations typically occur within days—and metres—of an initial attack. That, too, should help police deploy¹¹ their limited resources more effectively. RoboCop move over, then. ComputerCop is coming.

　　除了用盗窃案做模型，默赫勒用1999到2002年的数据，也检测了三起洛杉矶的帮派斗争，并发现了相同的模式：在最初的袭击之后，几天内会在邻近区域很典型地发生复仇暴力。这也能帮助警方更有效地部署有限的资源。机器战警（《机器战警》是一部1987年的科幻片——译注）已经过时，现在是电脑战警的时代了。

1 mere   

adj.纯粹的；仅仅，只不过

参考例句：

• That is a mere repetition of what you said before.那不过是重复了你以前讲的话。
• It's a mere waste of time waiting any longer.再等下去纯粹是浪费时间。

2 modification   

n.修改，改进，缓和，减轻

参考例句：

• The law,in its present form,is unjust;it needs modification.现行的法律是不公正的，它需要修改。
• The design requires considerable modification.这个设计需要作大的修改。

3 prone   

adj.(to)易于…的，很可能…的；俯卧的

参考例句：

• Some people are prone to jump to hasty conclusions.有些人往往作出轻率的结论。
• He is prone to lose his temper when people disagree with him.人家一不同意他的意见,他就发脾气。

4 tremors   

震颤( tremor的名词复数 )； 战栗； 震颤声； 大地的轻微震动

参考例句：

• The story was so terrible that It'sent tremors down my spine. 这故事太可怕，它使我不寒而栗。
• The story was so terrible that it sent tremors down my spine. 这故事太可怕，它使我不寒而栗。

5 tractable   

adj.易驾驭的；温顺的

参考例句：

• He was always tractable and quiet.他总是温顺、恬静。
• Gold and silver are tractable metals.金和银是容易加工的金属。

6 mathematician   

n.数学家

参考例句：

• The man with his back to the camera is a mathematician.背对着照相机的人是位数学家。
• The mathematician analyzed his figures again.这位数学家再次分析研究了他的这些数字。

7 intrigued   

adj.好奇的，被迷住了的v.搞阴谋诡计(intrigue的过去式)；激起…的兴趣或好奇心；“intrigue”的过去式和过去分词

参考例句：

• You've really intrigued me—tell me more! 你说的真有意思—再给我讲一些吧！
• He was intrigued by her story. 他被她的故事迷住了。

8 residential   

adj.提供住宿的；居住的；住宅的

参考例句：

• The mayor inspected the residential section of the city.市长视察了该市的住宅区。
• The residential blocks were integrated with the rest of the college.住宿区与学院其他部分结合在了一起。

9 accurately   

adv.准确地，精确地

参考例句：

• It is hard to hit the ball accurately.准确地击中球很难。
• Now scientists can forecast the weather accurately.现在科学家们能准确地预报天气。

10 rivalries   

n.敌对，竞争，对抗( rivalry的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The new government was torn by rivalries. 新政府由于各派对立而四分五裂。 来自辞典例句
• Rivalries could bring about pain and hatred or give rise to fighting. 竞争会带来痛苦、仇恨，或者引起争斗。 来自互联网

11 deploy   

v.（军）散开成战斗队形，布置，展开

参考例句：

• The infantry began to deploy at dawn.步兵黎明时开始进入战斗位置。
• The president said he had no intention of deploying ground troops.总统称并不打算部署地面部队。