经济学人236:住房 灵活的反对

 　　Housing

　　住房

　　Nimble opposition¹

　　灵活的反对

　　A new study confirms suspicions about what drives planning decisions

　　一项新的研究证实了对规划决定的推动力的质疑

　　ON A road called Glyders, in Benfleet, east of London, it looks as though every house is on the market. But the crucial words “for sale” are missing from the estate agents'signs, and have been replaced with “RAGE:Residents Against Glyders Expansion”. The locals are protesting against plans to build 35 new homes on farmland at the end of their road. “Look how narrow this road is,” says Susan Baillie, whose husband, Robert, runs the campaign. “It will never cope with the additional traffic.” The Baillies organised the signs, which are sponsored by the estate agent. The irony² seems lost on the residents.

　　在Glyders，这个位于伦敦东部本弗利特的一条大街上，每一间房屋似乎都在等待它的买主。但是房屋中介的招牌上却偏偏缺少重要字眼“待售”，取而代之的是“暴怒：当地居民拒绝Glyders的扩大。”当地人抗议在这条街道末端的农田上建造35栋新屋的计划。“请看看这条街有多窄，”苏珊贝利如是说，而她的丈夫罗伯特正是这次抗议行动发起人。“它负担不起额外的交通了。”贝利想到利用招牌，这一举措得到了房屋中介的大力支持。讽刺的是此举会导致住户的流失。

　　住房.jpg

　　Local opposition to new housing developments is common across Britain. It has long been argued that such opposition—NIMBYism to its critics—is linked to home ownership. Homeowners, unlike distant landlords, vote in local elections and receive planning consultations³ in their postboxes. They lose out from development in multiple ways. Loss of green space reduces their quality of life and increased supply of housing suppresses prices. Landlords managing diversified⁴ portfolios⁵ are less exposed to the value of one property. The idea that planning decisions are driven by the desire of homeowners to maximise house prices is known as the “home-voter hypothesis”.

　　当地反对新的房屋开发政策在英国是很常见的。一直以来都认为这种反对—批评家称之为邻避主义—都与房屋所有权息息相关。与过去的地主不同，房主参与当地选举和规划咨询。在开发过程中他们在多方面有所亏损。绿地的损耗降低了他们的生活质量，而且增加的房屋供应压制了房屋价格。管理多样投资的房东对于一栋房屋的价格会有所疏忽。房主们意欲提高房屋价格从而驱使决策产生，这种想法被称之为“房屋投票假说”。

　　On October 24th the Institute for Government, a think-tank, released a study supporting this theory with data. It looked at English local planning authorities (LAs) between 2001 and 2011 and found that for every additional ten percentage points in the proportion of homes that are owner-occupied, 1.2 percentage points were knocked off growth in the housing stock. Average growth was 8.8%, so the effect was marked. The authors are cautious about making a causal claim, but the correlation⁶ was observed after controlling for the number of planning applications and the amount of available land. A rough calculation suggests that, without the NIMBY effect, one million more homes would have been built during the period.

　　在10月24日，智库政府研究所（IFG）公布了一项佐以数据支撑此次理论的研究。通过2001到2011年对英国地方规划局的观察发现，屋主自用的房屋占所有房屋比例中每增加10个百分点，住房存量的增长就会下跌1.2个百分点。平均增长是8.8％，所以此种现象的影响是显而易见的。至于是否可以得出两者存在因果关系的结论，作者持保留态度。但是在控制了规划申请和可用土地的数量后，相关效果还是很容易看到的。若不考虑邻避效应，一项粗略计算表明，在2001至2011年间大约有逾一百万栋房屋建成。

　　That would have helped alleviate⁷ an acute shortage of British housing. In 2004, a government report by Kate Barker, an economist⁸, found that 240,000 new homes were needed every year. Only 138,000 homes were built in 2013. Due to the shortfall, houses are eye-wateringly expensive and, since 1952, home ownership has become a more distant prospect⁹ for almost every new generation (see chart).

　　这将有助于缓和英国紧张的住房短缺问题。在2004年，经济学家凯特巴克做出了一份政府报告，发现每年所需住房数为24万。而仅有13.8万栋房屋在2013年建成。由于房屋稀缺，房屋的价格也是极其昂贵的，自1952年以来，房屋所有权已经变成了每个新一代人更加遥远的追求。

　　In a book released in September, Ms Barker argues that England's planning system is fragmented and slow. LAs are required to have a medium-term plan which meets targets for development agreed with central government. But both the overall plan and individual developments can be held up. LAs find it difficult to work together on proposals which cross boundaries, and vacillate on whether to build on brownfield land, which has old buildings on it, or greenfield sites, which developers prefer. The green belt around many towns constrains¹⁰ development. And locals see few of the fiscal¹¹ benefits from new homes, so there is little incentive¹² for them to build.

　　在9月份发表的书中，巴克表示，英国的规划系统如今零散又低效。各个当地规划局（LAs）都要求一个能符合中央政府批准的发展目标的中期计划。但总体规划和个体发展都会被阻断。LAs发现那些跨界的提案很难兼并施行，所以踌躇着是要在棕色地带推到旧宅筑新房还是在那些开发商钟爱的市郊绿区盖房子。许多城镇城市绿化带的存在约束着发展。当地人也在新房屋建设中看不到些许财政利益，因此，他们根本没有建造房屋的动力。

　　Thankfully, public attitudes are shifting. Rising house prices used to be celebrated¹³ as a sign of economic strength; now, most see expensive homes as bad for Britain. Politicians are responding: both big parties have promised more building.

　　庆幸的是，公众的态度正在转变。房屋价格看涨在过去被看作是经济实力的一种标志。而如今，大部分人认为房价高对英国是不利的。政治家们如是回答：两大政党已承诺会有更多的住房建筑。

　　This shift is not on display in Benfleet, which is part of a local authority—Castle Point—with the joint¹⁴ highest rate of home ownership in the country. Admiring the view from one resident's garden, it is hard not to sympathise with the local campaign. But every home was a newbuild once, and the costs of the housing shortage are not visible from an Essex garden.

　　此种转变并未出现在本弗利特， 它是卡斯尔波恩特 (英国国会选区)的一部分，而且在乡下有着房屋所有权的高联合率。从一居民的花园外眺风景，你会感觉很难不同情当地抗议运动。但若是这里的每一处房屋都是一次建成，那么从埃克斯花园向外环望，很难看出住房短缺的损失。

1 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

2 irony   

n.反语，冷嘲；具有讽刺意味的事，嘲弄

参考例句：

• She said to him with slight irony.她略带嘲讽地对他说。
• In her voice we could sense a certain tinge of irony.从她的声音里我们可以感到某种讥讽的意味。

3 consultations   

n.磋商（会议）( consultation的名词复数 )；商讨会；协商会；查找

参考例句：

• Consultations can be arranged at other times by appointment. 磋商可以通过预约安排在其他时间。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• Consultations are under way. 正在进行磋商。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

4 diversified   

adj.多样化的，多种经营的v.使多样化，多样化( diversify的过去式和过去分词 )；进入新的商业领域

参考例句：

• The college biology department has diversified by adding new courses in biotechnology. 该学院生物系通过增加生物技术方面的新课程而变得多样化。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Take grain as the key link, develop a diversified economy and ensure an all-round development. 以粮为纲，多种经营，全面发展。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

5 portfolios   

n.投资组合( portfolio的名词复数 )；（保险）业务量；（公司或机构提供的）系列产品；纸夹

参考例句：

• Price risk arises in non-trading portfolios, as well as in trading portfolios. 价格风险中出现的非贸易投资，以及在贸易投资组合。 来自互联网
• How do we fatten our portfolios and stay financially healthy? 我们怎样育肥我们的投资结构和维持财政健康呢？ 来自互联网

6 correlation   

n.相互关系，相关，关连

参考例句：

• The second group of measurements had a high correlation with the first.第二组测量数据与第一组高度相关。
• A high correlation exists in America between education and economic position.教育和经济地位在美国有极密切的关系。

7 alleviate   

v.减轻，缓和，缓解(痛苦等)

参考例句：

• The doctor gave her an injection to alleviate the pain.医生给她注射以减轻疼痛。
• Nothing could alleviate his distress.什么都不能减轻他的痛苦。

8 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

9 prospect   

n.前景，前途；景色，视野

参考例句：

• This state of things holds out a cheerful prospect.事态呈现出可喜的前景。
• The prospect became more evident.前景变得更加明朗了。

10 constrains   

强迫( constrain的第三人称单数 )； 强使； 限制； 约束

参考例句：

• We'll ignore the continuity constrains. 我们往往忽略连续约束条件。
• It imposes constrains, restricting nature's freedom. 它具有限制自然界自由度的强制性。

11 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

12 incentive   

n.刺激；动力；鼓励；诱因；动机

参考例句：

• Money is still a major incentive in most occupations.在许多职业中，钱仍是主要的鼓励因素。
• He hasn't much incentive to work hard.他没有努力工作的动机。

13 celebrated   

adj.有名的，声誉卓著的

参考例句：

• He was soon one of the most celebrated young painters in England.不久他就成了英格兰最负盛名的年轻画家之一。
• The celebrated violinist was mobbed by the audience.观众团团围住了这位著名的小提琴演奏家。

14 joint   

adj.联合的，共同的；n.关节，接合处；v.连接，贴合

参考例句：

• I had a bad fall,which put my shoulder out of joint.我重重地摔了一跤，肩膀脫臼了。
• We wrote a letter in joint names.我们联名写了封信。