经济学人:日本的氢致灾难

 　　Japan's hydra-headed disaster日本的氢致灾难

　　The fallout 放射性尘埃

　　Some natural disasters change history. Japan’s tsunami¹ could be one

　　有些自然灾害改变历史，日本的海啸会是其中之一

　　THAT “tsunami” is one of the few Japanese words in global use points to the country’s familiarity with natural disaster. But even measured against Japan’s painful history, its plight² today is miserable³. The magnitude-9 earthquake—the largest ever in the country’s history, equivalent in power to 30,000 Hiroshimas—was followed by a wave which wiped out whole towns. With news dribbling⁴ out from stricken coastal⁵ communities, the scale of the horror is still sinking in. The surge of icy water shoved the debris⁶ of destroyed towns miles inland, killing⁷ most of those too old or too slow to scramble⁸ to higher ground (see article). The official death toll⁹ of 5,429 will certainly rise. In several towns over half the population has drowned or is missing.

　　“海啸”是世界通用的为数不多的日语词汇之一，这说明自然灾害在日本已是习以为常。但是，即便从日本多灾多难的历史来看，现在它所面临的这场灾难也是非常悲惨的。里氏9级的地震是该国历史上最大的一次，释放出的能量相当于投放于广岛的原子弹的30000倍。强震之后，海浪咆哮而至，把一座座城镇完全吞没。从受困的滨海地区传来的零星消息表明，恐惧仍在加深。冰冷的海水把被毁城镇的废墟卷向几英里外的内陆，夺去了大多数由于年龄太大或行动太慢而未能转移到较高地方人们的生命。官方公布的死亡数字5249肯定会增加。在几座城镇，半数以上的居民溺死或失踪。

　　In the face of calamity¹⁰, a decent people has proved extremely resilient: no looting; very little complaining among the tsunami survivors¹¹. In Tokyo people queued patiently to meet their tax deadlines. Everywhere there was a calm determination to conjure¹² a little order out of chaos¹³. Volunteers have rushed to help. The country’s Self-Defence Forces, which dithered in response to the Kobe earthquake in 1995, have poured into the stricken area. Naoto Kan, the prime minister, who started the crisis with very low public support, has so far managed to keep a semblance¹⁴ of order in the country, despite a series of calamities¹⁵ that would challenge even the strongest of leaders. The government’s inept¹⁶ handling of the Kobe disaster did much to undermine Japan’s confidence in itself.

　　面对不幸，素养良好的民族表现出极其克制的一面：没有抢掠，海啸幸存者中也几乎没有什么抱怨。在东京，人们仍然耐心地排队缴税。每个地方都要一种平静的决心：在混乱中保持秩序。志愿者踊跃伸出援手。在1995年阪神地震中应对不力的日本自卫队已经奔赴受灾地区。虽然一连串的不幸对最坚强的领导人都是个挑战，但是此前就任于危难之际、公众支持率很低的日本首相菅直人现在也成功维持住了日本的秩序。政府应对阪神地震的无能大大降低了日本的自信。

　　The wider concern更广的担忧

　　The immediate¹⁷ tragedy may be Japan’s; but it also throws up longer-term questions that will eventually affect people all the way round the globe. Stockmarkets stumbled on fears about the impact on the world’s third-biggest economy. Japan’s central bank seems to have stilled talk of financial panic with huge injections of liquidity¹⁸. Early estimates of the total damage are somewhat higher than the $100 billion that Kobe cost, but not enough to wreck¹⁹ a rich country. Disruption to electricity supplies will damage growth, and some Asian supply chains are already facing problems; but new infrastructure²⁰ spending will offset²¹ some of the earthquake’s drag on growth.

　　眼前受灾的是日本，但也提出了一些长期性、最终将会影响全世界所有人的问题。出于对日本这个世界第三大经济体的担忧，股市跌停。日本的中央银行似乎已经通过大量注入流动性来平息人们对金融市场的恐慌。之前发布的全部损失估计值比阪神地震造成的损失值1000亿美元稍高，但不足以摧毁一个富国。电力供应中断将对经济增长产生破坏作用，亚洲的一些供应链已经面临问题；但是重建基础设施的投资将会抵消地震对经济增长的部分拖累。

　　Those calculations could change dramatically if the nuclear crisis worsens. As The Economist²² went to press, helicopters were dropping water to douse²³ overheating nuclear fuel stored at the Fukushima Dai-ichi plant, where there have been explosions, fires and releases of radiation greater, it seems, than the Japanese authorities had admitted. The country’s nuclear industry has a long history of cover-ups and incompetence²⁴, and—notwithstanding the heroism²⁶ of individual workers—the handling of the crisis by TEPCO, the nuclear plant’s operator, is sadly in line with its past performance.

　　如果核危机恶化，那些估计将会大幅改变。当《经济学人》付印时，直升机正在向福岛第一核电站注水，以给其中贮藏的现已过热的核燃料降温。该核电站已经发生过爆炸和起火，释放出的核辐射看来比日本当局承认的要大。掩盖真相和应对不力在日本的核工业由来已久，虽然作为个体的工人具有英雄主义情怀，但是该核电站的运营商东京电力公司处理这次危机还是跟它的以往表现一样，令人失望。

　　Even if the nuclear accident is brought under control swiftly, and the release of radiation turns out not to be large enough to damage public health, this accident will have a huge impact on the nuclear industry, both inside and outside Japan. Germany has already put on hold its politically tricky²⁷ decision to extend the life of its nuclear plants. America’s faltering²⁸ steps towards new reactors²⁹ look sure to be set back, not least because new concerns will mean greater costs.

　　即使核事故很快得到控制，即使释放出的核辐射被证明不足以对公众健康产生危害，这次事故都将对不管是日本国内的还是日本国外的核工业产生很大影响。德国已经收回延长核电站寿命这一政治上很狡猾的决定。美国建设新反应堆的蹒跚脚步看来一定会退却，特别是因为新的担忧意味着更大的耗费。

　　China has announced a pause in its ambitious plans for nuclear growth. With 27 reactors under construction, more than twice as many as any other country, China accounts for almost half the world’s current nuclear build-out—and it has plans for 50 more reactors. And in the long term the regime looks unlikely to be much deterred³⁰ from these plans—and certainly not by its public’s opinion, whatever that might be. China has a huge thirst for energy that it will slake³¹ from as many wells as it can, with planned big increases in wind power and in gas as well as the nuclear build-out and ever more coal-fired plants.

　　中国已经宣布暂停其雄心勃勃的核增长计划。中国有27个在建的核反应堆，是任何其他国家的2倍以上，占到世界现有核项目的将近一半，还有再建50个反应堆的计划。从长期来看，中国政府不太可能会畏惧于这些计划，当然也不会畏惧于民意（而无论民意如何）。中国对能源的饥渴似乎吸干多少口井都不够，政府准备大力增加风电和气能还有核电站，以及更多的燃煤火电站。

　　Thus the great nuclear dilemma³². For the best nuclear safety you need not just good planning and good engineering. You need the sort of society that can produce accountability and transparency, one that can build institutions that receive and deserve trust. No nuclear nation has done this as well as one might wish, and Japan’s failings may well become more evident. But democracies are better at building such institutions. At the same time, however, democracy makes it much easier for a substantial and implacable minority to make sure things don’t happen, and that seems likely to be the case with plans for more nuclear power. Thus nuclear power looks much more likely to spread in societies that are unlikely to ground it in the enduring culture of safety that it needs. China’s nearest competitor in the new-build stakes is Russia.

　　因此，这是关于核电站的两难问题。要使核设施达到最高的安全性，不仅需要良好的规划和设计，还需要能够做到负责和透明的社会，因为这样的社会才能建立起能够得到并且值得信任的机构。有核国家没有哪个做得如同期望的那么好，由于这次事故日本未能做到这点可能变得更加明显。但是，民主国家更善于建立这种能够得到并且值得信任的机构。但是，民主同时也使少数执拗者更容易阻碍一定事情的发生，关于核能的计划似乎很可能面临这种情况。因此，在核能所需安全的持久文化不太可能为其提供支撑的社会，核能似乎更可能扩张。在新建核电站上跟中国最接近的对手是俄罗斯。

　　Yet democracies would be wrong to turn their back on nuclear power. It still has the advantages of offering reliable power, a degree of energy security, and no carbon dioxide emissions³³ beyond those incurred³⁴ in building and supplying the plants. In terms of lives lost it has also boasted, to date, a reasonably good record. Chernobyl’s death toll is highly uncertain, but may have reached a few thousand people. China’s coal mines certainly kill 2,000-3,000 workers a year, and coal-smogged air there and elsewhere kills many more. It remains³⁵ a reasonable idea for most rich countries to keep some nuclear power in their portfolio³⁶, not least because by maintaining economic and technological³⁷ stakes in nuclear they will have more standing²⁵ to insist on high standards for safety and non-proliferation being applied³⁸ throughout the world. But in the face of panic, of sinister³⁹ towers of smoke, of invisible and implacable threats, the reasonable course is not an easy one.

　　但是，如果民主国家抛弃核能，那就错了。核能依然具有提供可靠电力、一定程度上保障能源安全、没有二氧化碳排放的优点。在致死数量方面，迄今为止，核能的记录合理而良好。切尔诺贝利的死亡人数现在还高度不确定，但可能已经达到几千人。中国的煤矿每年必定会夺取两三千工人的生命，煤矿和其他地方含有较多煤尘和烟雾的空气致死人数更多。对大多数富国来说，在能源组合中保留一些核能还是合理的想法，特别是因为通过维护在核问题经济和技术上的利益，它们在要求世界范围内采用高标准的安全性和不扩散方面会有更大的说服力。但是，在恐慌面前，在丑恶的烟塔面前，在隐形的和难以解除的威胁面前，这条合理的道路不会平坦。

　　Back to Tokyo话题转回东京

　　No country faces that choice more painfully than Japan, scarred by nuclear energy but also deprived of native alternatives. To abandon nuclear power is to commit the country to massive imports of gas and perhaps coal. To keep it is to face and overcome a national trauma⁴⁰ and to accept a small but real risk of another disaster.

　　面对这个抉择，没有哪个国家像日本这样痛苦，核能给它留下累累疤痕，国家却又别无选择。如果放弃核能，日本就要大量进口天然气可能还有煤炭；如果保留核能，日本就要面对和解决国家性的创伤，接受发生另一场灾难这个可能性不大但又的确存在的风险。

　　Japan’s all too frequent experience of calamity suggests that such events are often followed by great change. After the earthquake of 1923, it turned to militarism. After its defeat in the second world war, and the dropping of the atom bombs, it espoused⁴¹ peaceful growth. The Kobe earthquake reinforced Japan’s recent turning in on itself.

　　日本极其频繁的不幸经历表明，这类事件之后通常会有巨大变化。在1923年的地震之后，日本转向了军国主义。在第二次世界大战失败、美国投下原子弹之后，日本赢得了和平的发展。阪神地震加强了日本近来转向国内的政策。

　　This new catastrophe⁴² seems likely to have a similarly huge impact on the nation’s psyche⁴³. It may be that the Japanese people’s impressive response to disaster, and the rest of the world’s awe⁴⁴ in the face of their stoicism, restores the self-confidence the country so badly needs. It may be that the failings of its secretive system of governance, exemplified by the shoddy management of its nuclear plants, lead to more demands for political reform. As long as Mr Kan can convince the public that the government’s information on radiation is trustworthy, and that it can ease the cold and hunger of tsunami survivors, his hand may be strengthened to further liberalise Japan. Or it may be that things take a darker turn.

　　这次灾难似乎很可能会对日本的国民心理产生相似的巨大影响。日本人对灾难的态度令人印象深刻，世界对他们斯多葛哲学充满敬畏。日本人的这种作风可能重新架构起该国急需的自信。对核电站事故的乏力应对，代表了日本管理秘密体制的失败，对政治改革的要求会更强烈。只要菅直人能让民众相信政府公布的辐射信息是可信的，政府可以减轻海啸幸存者的寒冷和饥饿，他就还能加强改革、进一步促使日本自由化。否则，事情可能转向更糟的一面。

　　The stakes are high. Japan—a despondent⁴⁵ country with a dysfunctional political system—badly needs change. It seems just possible that, looking back from a safe distance, Japan’s people will regard this dreadful moment not just as a time of death, grief and mourning, but also as a time of rebirth.

　　赌注较高。日本这个萎靡不振的国家，迫切需要改革它不正常的政治体制。如果日本人以后从一个安全的距离来回顾这段历史，他们完全可能把这个难熬的时段不仅视作死亡之时，痛苦之时，哀悼之时，还会把它视作再生之时。

1 tsunami   

n.海啸

参考例句：

• Powerful quake sparks tsunami warning in Japan.大地震触发了日本的海啸预警。
• Coastlines all around the Indian Ocean inundated by a huge tsunami.大海啸把印度洋沿岸地区都淹没了。

2 plight   

n.困境，境况，誓约，艰难；vt.宣誓，保证，约定

参考例句：

• The leader was much concerned over the plight of the refugees.那位领袖对难民的困境很担忧。
• She was in a most helpless plight.她真不知如何是好。

3 miserable   

adj.悲惨的，痛苦的；可怜的，糟糕的

参考例句：

• It was miserable of you to make fun of him.你取笑他，这是可耻的。
• Her past life was miserable.她过去的生活很苦。

4 dribbling   

n.（燃料或油从系统内）漏泄v.流口水( dribble的现在分词 )；（使液体）滴下或作细流；运球，带球

参考例句：

• Basic skills include swimming, dribbling, passing, marking, tackling, throwing, catching and shooting. 个人基本技术包括游泳、带球、传球、盯人、抢截、抛球、接球和射门。 来自互联网
• Carol: [Laurie starts dribbling again] Now do that for ten minutes. 卡罗：（萝莉开始再度运球）现在那样做十分钟。 来自互联网

5 coastal   

adj.海岸的，沿海的，沿岸的

参考例句：

• The ocean waves are slowly eating away the coastal rocks.大海的波浪慢慢地侵蚀着岸边的岩石。
• This country will fortify the coastal areas.该国将加强沿海地区的防御。

6 debris   

n.瓦砾堆，废墟，碎片

参考例句：

• After the bombing there was a lot of debris everywhere.轰炸之后到处瓦砾成堆。
• Bacteria sticks to food debris in the teeth,causing decay.细菌附着在牙缝中的食物残渣上，导致蛀牙。

7 killing   

n.巨额利润；突然赚大钱，发大财

参考例句：

• Investors are set to make a killing from the sell-off.投资者准备清仓以便大赚一笔。
• Last week my brother made a killing on Wall Street.上个周我兄弟在华尔街赚了一大笔。

8 scramble   

v.爬行，攀爬，杂乱蔓延，碎片，片段，废料

参考例句：

• He broke his leg in his scramble down the wall.他爬墙摔断了腿。
• It was a long scramble to the top of the hill.到山顶须要爬登一段长路。

9 toll   

n.过路(桥)费；损失，伤亡人数；v.敲(钟)

参考例句：

• The hailstone took a heavy toll of the crops in our village last night.昨晚那场冰雹损坏了我们村的庄稼。
• The war took a heavy toll of human life.这次战争夺去了许多人的生命。

10 calamity   

n.灾害，祸患，不幸事件

参考例句：

• Even a greater natural calamity cannot daunt us. 再大的自然灾害也压不垮我们。
• The attack on Pearl Harbor was a crushing calamity.偷袭珍珠港(对美军来说)是一场毁灭性的灾难。

11 survivors   

幸存者，残存者，生还者( survivor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The survivors were adrift in a lifeboat for six days. 幸存者在救生艇上漂流了六天。
• survivors clinging to a raft 紧紧抓住救生筏的幸存者

12 conjure   

v.恳求，祈求；变魔术，变戏法

参考例句：

• I conjure you not to betray me.我恳求你不要背弃我。
• I can't simply conjure up the money out of thin air.我是不能像变魔术似的把钱变来。

13 chaos   

n.混乱，无秩序

参考例句：

• After the failure of electricity supply the city was in chaos.停电后，城市一片混乱。
• The typhoon left chaos behind it.台风后一片混乱。

14 semblance   

n.外貌，外表

参考例句：

• Her semblance of anger frightened the children.她生气的样子使孩子们感到害怕。
• Those clouds have the semblance of a large head.那些云的形状像一个巨大的人头。

15 calamities   

n.灾祸，灾难( calamity的名词复数 )；不幸之事

参考例句：

• They will only triumph by persevering in their struggle against natural calamities. 他们只有坚持与自然灾害搏斗，才能取得胜利。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• One moment's false security can bring a century of calamities. 图一时之苟安，贻百年之大患。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

16 inept   

adj.不恰当的，荒谬的，拙劣的

参考例句：

• Whan an inept remark to make on such a formal occasion.在如此正式的场合，怎么说这样不恰当的话。
• He's quite inept at tennis.他打网球太笨。

17 immediate   

adj.立即的；直接的，最接近的；紧靠的

参考例句：

• His immediate neighbours felt it their duty to call.他的近邻认为他们有责任去拜访。
• We declared ourselves for the immediate convocation of the meeting.我们主张立即召开这个会议。

18 liquidity   

n.流动性，偿债能力，流动资产

参考例句：

• The bank has progressively increased its liquidity.银行逐渐地增加其流动资产。
• The demand for and the supply of credit is closely linked to changes in liquidity.信用的供求和流动资金的变化有密切关系。

19 wreck   

n.失事，遇难；沉船；vt.(船等)失事，遇难

参考例句：

• Weather may have been a factor in the wreck.天气可能是造成这次失事的原因之一。
• No one can wreck the friendship between us.没有人能够破坏我们之间的友谊。

20 infrastructure   

n.下部构造，下部组织，基础结构，基础设施

参考例句：

• We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
• We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设，发展各类群众文化。

21 offset   

n.分支，补偿；v.抵消，补偿

参考例句：

• Their wage increases would be offset by higher prices.他们增加的工资会被物价上涨所抵消。
• He put up his prices to offset the increased cost of materials.他提高了售价以补偿材料成本的增加。

22 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

23 douse   

v.把…浸入水中，用水泼；n.泼洒

参考例句：

• Men came with buckets of water and began to douse the flames.人们提来一桶桶水灭火。
• He doused the flames with a fire extinguisher.他用灭火器把火焰扑灭。

24 incompetence   

n.不胜任，不称职

参考例句：

• He was dismissed for incompetence. 他因不称职而被解雇。
• She felt she had been made a scapegoat for her boss's incompetence. 她觉得，本是老板无能，但她却成了替罪羊。

25 standing   

n.持续，地位；adj.永久的，不动的，直立的，不流动的

参考例句：

• After the earthquake only a few houses were left standing.地震过后只有几幢房屋还立着。
• They're standing out against any change in the law.他们坚决反对对法律做任何修改。

26 heroism   

n.大无畏精神，英勇

参考例句：

• He received a medal for his heroism.他由于英勇而获得一枚奖章。
• Stories of his heroism resounded through the country.他的英雄故事传遍全国。

27 tricky   

adj.狡猾的，奸诈的；(工作等)棘手的，微妙的

参考例句：

• I'm in a rather tricky position.Can you help me out?我的处境很棘手，你能帮我吗？
• He avoided this tricky question and talked in generalities.他回避了这个非常微妙的问题，只做了个笼统的表述。

28 faltering   

犹豫的，支吾的，蹒跚的

参考例句：

• The economy shows no signs of faltering. 经济没有衰退的迹象。
• I canfeel my legs faltering. 我感到我的腿在颤抖。

29 reactors   

起反应的人( reactor的名词复数 )； 反应装置； 原子炉； 核反应堆

参考例句：

• The TMI nuclear facility has two reactors. 三哩岛核设施有两个反应堆。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法
• The earliest production reactors necessarily used normal uranium as fuel. 最早为生产用的反应堆，必须使用普通铀作为燃料。

30 deterred   

v.阻止，制止( deter的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• I told him I wasn't interested, but he wasn't deterred. 我已告诉他我不感兴趣，可他却不罢休。
• Jeremy was not deterred by this criticism. 杰里米没有因这一批评而却步。 来自辞典例句

31 slake   

v.解渴，使平息

参考例句：

• We had to slake ourselves with rainwater in the desert.在沙漠中我们不得不用雨水解渴。
• A menu will not satisfy your hunger,a formula will not slake your thirst.菜单不可能填饱你的肚子，一套准则也不可能消除你的饥渴。

32 dilemma   

n.困境，进退两难的局面

参考例句：

• I am on the horns of a dilemma about the matter.这件事使我进退两难。
• He was thrown into a dilemma.他陷入困境。

33 emissions   

排放物( emission的名词复数 )； 散发物（尤指气体）

参考例句：

• Most scientists accept that climate change is linked to carbon emissions. 大多数科学家都相信气候变化与排放的含碳气体有关。
• Dangerous emissions radiate from plutonium. 危险的辐射物从钚放散出来。

34 incurred   

[医]招致的，遭受的； incur的过去式

参考例句：

• She had incurred the wrath of her father by marrying without his consent 她未经父亲同意就结婚，使父亲震怒。
• We will reimburse any expenses incurred. 我们将付还所有相关费用。

35 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

36 portfolio   

n.公事包；文件夹；大臣及部长职位

参考例句：

• He remembered her because she was carrying a large portfolio.他因为她带着一个大公文包而记住了她。
• He resigned his portfolio.他辞去了大臣职务。

37 technological   

adj.技术的；工艺的

参考例句：

• A successful company must keep up with the pace of technological change.一家成功的公司必须得跟上技术变革的步伐。
• Today,the pace of life is increasing with technological advancements.当今， 随着科技进步，生活节奏不断增快。

38 applied   

adj.应用的；v.应用，适用

参考例句：

• She plans to take a course in applied linguistics.她打算学习应用语言学课程。
• This cream is best applied to the face at night.这种乳霜最好晚上擦脸用。

39 sinister   

adj.不吉利的，凶恶的，左边的

参考例句：

• There is something sinister at the back of that series of crimes.在这一系列罪行背后有险恶的阴谋。
• Their proposals are all worthless and designed out of sinister motives.他们的建议不仅一钱不值，而且包藏祸心。

40 trauma   

n.外伤，精神创伤

参考例句：

• Counselling is helping him work through this trauma.心理辅导正帮助他面对痛苦。
• The phobia may have its root in a childhood trauma.恐惧症可能源于童年时期的创伤。

41 espoused   

v.（决定）支持，拥护（目标、主张等）( espouse的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• They espoused the notion of equal opportunity for all in education. 他们赞同在教育方面人人机会均等的观念。
• The ideas she espoused were incomprehensible to me. 她所支持的意见令我难以理解。 来自《简明英汉词典》

42 catastrophe   

n.大灾难，大祸

参考例句：

• I owe it to you that I survived the catastrophe.亏得你我才大难不死。
• This is a catastrophe beyond human control.这是一场人类无法控制的灾难。

43 psyche   

n.精神；灵魂

参考例句：

• His exploration of the myth brings insight into the American psyche.他对这个神话的探讨揭示了美国人的心理。
• She spent her life plumbing the mysteries of the human psyche.她毕生探索人类心灵的奥秘。

44 awe   

n.敬畏，惊惧；vt.使敬畏，使惊惧

参考例句：

• The sight filled us with awe.这景色使我们大为惊叹。
• The approaching tornado struck awe in our hearts.正在逼近的龙卷风使我们惊恐万分。

45 despondent   

adj.失望的，沮丧的，泄气的

参考例句：

• He was up for a time and then，without warning,despondent again.他一度兴高采烈，但忽然又情绪低落下来。
• I feel despondent when my work is rejected.作品被拒后我感到很沮丧。