经济学人:全球经济,又是如履薄冰的一年

 　　The global economy全球经济

　　Another year of living dangerously又是如履薄冰的一年

　　Turmoil¹ in the Middle East and disaster in Japan arouse economic angst. Central banks must not make it worse

　　中东的骚乱和日本的灾难引发经济上的忧虑。各国央行一定不能恶化事态

　　THIS was supposed to be a stress-free year for the global economy. By January the financial crisis had faded and Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis seemed less acute. America’s economy was resurgent. Investors² piled into equities³ and sold some of the government bonds they’d bought for troubled times. If there was a worry, it was that emerging economies would grow too quickly, inflating⁴ commodity prices.

　　人们原本认为全球经济今年将会没有压力。一月份时，金融危机已经消退，欧洲的主权债务危机似乎不再那么严重，美国经济也在复苏。投资者大举买进股本，卖出一部分他们为艰难时期做准备而购买的政府债券。如果说有什么担心的话，那就是担心新兴经济体过快增长会推高物价。

　　The year without crisis is not to be. First, Arabian upheaval⁵ put oil markets on edge. Then earthquake, tsunami⁶ and a nuclear accident clobbered⁷ the world’s third-largest economy. How much of a setback⁸ to growth do these twin crises represent? And how should economic policymakers react to them?

　　没有危机的一年没有如愿出现。开头是阿拉伯世界的动乱把石油市场推向边缘。接着，地震、海啸和核事故冲击着日本这个世界第三大经济体。这两场危机对经济增长将会产生多大的阻碍作用？经济决策者应当如何应对？

　　Japan’s share of world output has been shrinking for decades, but at 9% it remains¹⁰ large enough for the hit to the country’s growth to subtract noticeably from global output. Then there are the ripple¹¹ effects on the rest of the world. Japan is a large—in some cases the sole—supplier of intermediate goods to the world’s electronics and automotive industries, from the hardened glass on Apple’s iPad to gearboxes in Volkswagens. Many makers⁹ of such parts have had to slow or halt shipments because of damaged roads, power cuts or the loss of components¹² from their own suppliers. The effects have spread well beyond Japan, causing shutdowns from South Korea to Spain. Still, the history of such disasters is that much of that lost production is eventually recovered and reconstruction¹³ delivers a fillip to subsequent growth.

　　日本在世界产值中的比重这几十年一直在下降，但是9%的份额依然足以使这次灾难对日本经济增长形成的冲击对全球产值产生明显的影响，而且对世界其他地区还会产生涟漪效应。日本是世界电子业和汽车业中间产品（从苹果iPad的硬化玻璃到大众的齿轮箱）的主要供应国，在有些方面甚至是唯一供应国。由于道路损坏、电力紧张或来自其供应商的零件短缺，这些部件的生产厂家已经被迫减缓甚至停止发货。影响已经波及到日本之外的地区，导致从韩国到西班牙的许多工厂停产。不过，在以前的这类灾难中，损耗的产能多数最终得以恢复，重建还刺激了之后的增长。

　　Pinpointing¹⁴ the impact of Arab political turmoil is complicated by the fact that oil prices were already rising thanks to a brighter global economic outlook. Nonetheless, a good portion of this year’s 25% increase seems due to worries over supplies. A rule of thumb holds that a 10% increase in the price of oil trims 0.2 percentage points from global growth. At the start of the year, the world looked likely to grow by 4-4.5%. A crude estimate is that the two crises will subtract between a quarter and half a percentage point from that.

　　由于全球经济前景更加光明，油价已在上涨，这使得阿拉伯政治动乱的影响难以明确。但是，对今年25%涨价幅度的相当一部分担心是在供应方面。概测法（拇指规律）表明，油价每上涨10%，全球经济增速就会减少0.2个百分点。年初时，世界经济似乎将会增长4-4.5%。粗略估计，阿拉伯和日本的这两场危机将使增速在4-4.5%的基础上减少0.25到0.5个百分点。

　　That may not capture the full effect. Crises by their nature generate clouds of uncertainty¹⁵ (see article). Businesses postpone¹⁶ capital spending and hiring until the clouds clear. Investors seek the safety of bonds and lose their taste for equities.

　　这可能还没考虑到所有影响。危机的本质会产生不确定性，在云开雾散之前企业推迟资本支出和招兵买马，投资者对股本失去兴趣而转向收益方面安全的债券。

　　Economic policymakers can’t make peace between Arab rulers and their people or stabilise Japan’s nuclear reactors¹⁷, but they can minimise the collateral¹⁸ damage. The greatest burden is on the Bank of Japan. Its efforts to cure deflation over the past 15 years have too often been timid. That could not be said of its rapid response to the tsunami. It poured cash into the banking¹⁹ system in a pre-emptive strike against panic hoarding²⁰. And it expanded its purchases of government and corporate²¹ debt and equities. Still more “quantitative easing” can keep bond yields from rising as the government borrows for reconstruction, and help the fight against deflation.

　　经济决策者不能在阿拉伯统治者和人民之间调停，也无法使日本的核反应堆趋于稳定，但是他们可以让造成的附带性破坏最小化。最大的重任落在日本银行肩上。日本银行过去15年抑制通胀力度不足的时候太多，但这却不能用来形容它对海啸的迅速应对上。为了避免恐慌性积聚钱财，日本银行先发制人，向银行系统注入大量现金，还加大购买政府和公司的债务和股本的力度。还有更多的“量化宽松”政策阻止债券收益随着政府借债用于重建而上涨，并能抵挡通货紧缩。

　　What should the rest of the world do? In a show of sympathy the G7 joined the Bank of Japan in selling the yen²² after it spiked²³ dramatically. Such actions should be limited, however. Japan is too dependent on exports and its priority should be stimulating²⁴ domestic demand and ending deflation, not cheapening the yen. A better way for outsiders to help is to ensure that concerns over radiation in Japanese products do not become an excuse for protectionism.

　　世界其他地方需要如何应对？在日元大幅升值之后，七国集团加入了日本银行抛售日元的行列，以示同情。但是，这种行动应该是有限的。日本过于依赖出口，它的首选应当是刺激国内需求，终结通货紧缩，而非使日元贬值。外界帮助日本的一个更好方式是确保对日本产品辐射的担心不会演变成保护主义的借口。

　　Avoidable aftershocks可以避免的余震

　　Other central banks face a more complicated task. Even as higher oil prices and hobbled Japanese production reduce growth they add to mounting inflation risks (Britain is now fretting²⁵ over inflation of 4.4%). But most rich-world economies have ample economic slack, and in several countries fiscal²⁶ tightening²⁸ will tug²⁹ at recovery. Britain’s coalition³⁰ government has reaffirmed its commitment to austerity with this week’s budget (see article), and America has begun to cut spending. Both the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve should resist the temptation to tighten²⁷ soon.

　　其他国家的中央银行面临更加复杂的任务。在因油价上涨和日本生产受创而降低增速的同时，通胀风险还会进一步增加（英国现在对4.4%的通胀率备感苦恼）。但是，大多数富裕经济体有充足的经济松弛空间，而几个国家会在复苏时还会严格收紧财政。英国的联合政府通过本周的预算重申了其紧缩政策的立场，美国也已开始削减开支。无论是英格兰银行还是美联储，都应该抵御马上收紧的诱惑。

　　The European Central Bank seems intent on raising interest rates next month. That would be a mistake. In the euro zone underlying³¹ inflation and wage growth are both subdued³² and inflation expectations are under control. By raising rates the ECB would strengthen the euro and frustrate³³ the efforts of countries like Greece, Ireland and—the next in line for bailing³⁴ out—Portugal to grow their way out of their debts.

　　欧洲央行似乎决意在4月份提高利率。这将是个错误。在欧元区，潜在的通货膨胀和工资增加都处于受抑状态，通胀预期也在管控之下。欧洲央行提高利率会强化欧元，还会挫伤像希腊、爱尔兰和等着救助的葡萄牙这些国家促进经济增长、摆脱债务危机的努力。

　　There is only so much economic policymakers can do about crises that spring from war or nature. In this case, the priority should be not making matters worse.

　　在由战争或自然引发的危机面前，经济决策者可做的事情很多。此时，首要的应是不能恶化事态。

1 turmoil   

n.骚乱，混乱，动乱

参考例句：

• His mind was in such a turmoil that he couldn't get to sleep.内心的纷扰使他无法入睡。
• The robbery put the village in a turmoil.抢劫使全村陷入混乱。

2 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

3 equities   

普通股，股票

参考例句：

• These are invested mainly in the OECD bonds and equities. 这些资产主要投资于经济合作及发展组织的债券与股票市场。
• They are also advantage of the global rebound in equities. 它们还在利用全球股市反弹的机会。

4 inflating   

v.使充气（于轮胎、气球等）( inflate的现在分词 )；（使）膨胀；（使）通货膨胀；物价上涨

参考例句：

• I felt myself inflating slowly with rage, like a tyre. 我感到自己体内的怒气正慢慢膨胀，像一只轮胎那样。 来自互联网
• Many are already overheating, with prices rising and asset bubbles inflating. 随着物价日益上涨、资产泡沫膨胀，很多新兴国家经济已经过热。 来自互联网

5 upheaval   

n.胀起，(地壳)的隆起；剧变，动乱

参考例句：

• It was faced with the greatest social upheaval since World War Ⅱ.它面临第二次世界大战以来最大的社会动乱。
• The country has been thrown into an upheaval.这个国家已经陷入动乱之中。

6 tsunami   

n.海啸

参考例句：

• Powerful quake sparks tsunami warning in Japan.大地震触发了日本的海啸预警。
• Coastlines all around the Indian Ocean inundated by a huge tsunami.大海啸把印度洋沿岸地区都淹没了。

7 clobbered   

v.狠揍， （不停）猛打( clobber的过去式和过去分词 )；彻底击败

参考例句：

• The paper got clobbered with libel damages of half a million pounds. 这家报纸被罚以五十万英镑的诽谤损害赔偿金。
• The robbers clobbered the shopkeeper to make him open the safe. 强盗们殴打店主迫使他打开保险箱。 来自辞典例句

8 setback   

n.退步，挫折，挫败

参考例句：

• Since that time there has never been any setback in his career.从那时起他在事业上一直没有遇到周折。
• She views every minor setback as a disaster.她把每个较小的挫折都看成重大灾难。

9 makers   

n.制造者，制造商（maker的复数形式）

参考例句：

• The makers of the product assured us that there had been no sacrifice of quality. 这一产品的制造商向我们保证说他们没有牺牲质量。
• The makers are about to launch out a new product. 制造商们马上要生产一种新产品。 来自《简明英汉词典》

10 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

11 ripple   

n.涟波，涟漪，波纹，粗钢梳；vt.使...起涟漪，使起波纹； vi.呈波浪状，起伏前进

参考例句：

• The pebble made a ripple on the surface of the lake.石子在湖面上激起一个涟漪。
• The small ripple split upon the beach.小小的涟漪卷来，碎在沙滩上。

12 components   

（机器、设备等的）构成要素，零件，成分； 成分( component的名词复数 )； [物理化学]组分； [数学]分量； （混合物的）组成部分

参考例句：

• the components of a machine 机器部件
• Our chemistry teacher often reduces a compound to its components in lab. 在实验室中化学老师常把化合物分解为各种成分。

13 reconstruction   

n.重建，再现，复原

参考例句：

• The country faces a huge task of national reconstruction following the war.战后，该国面临着重建家园的艰巨任务。
• In the period of reconstruction,technique decides everything.在重建时期，技术决定一切。

14 pinpointing   

准确地找出或描述( pinpoint的现在分词 )； 为…准确定位

参考例句：

• The difficulty of pinpointing primitive and derived characters remains. 要正确地指出原始性状和次生性状仍然感到困难。
• Pinpointing the true source of power in Japan is a notoriously slippery task. 要准确指出日本真正的权力来源，是一项非常困难的任务。

15 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

16 postpone   

v.延期，推迟

参考例句：

• I shall postpone making a decision till I learn full particulars.在未获悉详情之前我得从缓作出决定。
• She decided to postpone the converastion for that evening.她决定当天晚上把谈话搁一搁。

17 reactors   

起反应的人( reactor的名词复数 )； 反应装置； 原子炉； 核反应堆

参考例句：

• The TMI nuclear facility has two reactors. 三哩岛核设施有两个反应堆。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法
• The earliest production reactors necessarily used normal uranium as fuel. 最早为生产用的反应堆，必须使用普通铀作为燃料。

18 collateral   

adj.平行的；旁系的；n.担保品

参考例句：

• Many people use personal assets as collateral for small business loans.很多人把个人财产用作小额商业贷款的抵押品。
• Most people here cannot borrow from banks because they lack collateral.由于拿不出东西作为抵押，这里大部分人无法从银行贷款。

19 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

20 hoarding   

n.贮藏；积蓄；临时围墙；囤积v.积蓄并储藏（某物）( hoard的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• After the war, they were shot for hoarding. 战后他们因囤积而被枪决。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Actually he had two unused ones which he was hoarding up. 其实他还藏了两片没有用呢。 来自英汉文学

21 corporate   

adj.共同的，全体的；公司的，企业的

参考例句：

• This is our corporate responsibility.这是我们共同的责任。
• His corporate's life will be as short as a rabbit's tail.他的公司的寿命是兔子尾巴长不了。

22 yen   

n. 日元；热望

参考例句：

• He wanted to convert his dollars into Japanese yen.他想将美元换成日币。
• He has a yen to be alone in a boat.他渴望独自呆在一条船上。

23 spiked   

adj.有穗的；成锥形的；有尖顶的

参考例句：

• The editor spiked the story. 编辑删去了这篇报道。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• They wondered whether their drinks had been spiked. 他们有些疑惑自己的饮料里是否被偷偷搀了烈性酒。 来自辞典例句

24 stimulating   

adj.有启发性的，能激发人思考的

参考例句：

• shower gel containing plant extracts that have a stimulating effect on the skin 含有对皮肤有益的植物精华的沐浴凝胶
• This is a drug for stimulating nerves. 这是一种兴奋剂。

25 fretting   

n. 微振磨损 adj. 烦躁的, 焦虑的

参考例句：

• Fretting about it won't help. 苦恼于事无补。
• The old lady is always fretting over something unimportant. 那位老妇人总是为一些小事焦虑不安。

26 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

27 tighten   

v.(使)变紧；(使)绷紧

参考例句：

• Turn the screw to the right to tighten it.向右转动螺钉把它拧紧。
• Some countries tighten monetary policy to avoid inflation.一些国家实行紧缩银根的货币政策，以避免通货膨胀。

28 tightening   

上紧，固定，紧密

参考例句：

• Make sure the washer is firmly seated before tightening the pipe. 旋紧水管之前，检查一下洗衣机是否已牢牢地固定在底座上了。
• It needs tightening up a little. 它还需要再收紧些。

29 tug   

v.用力拖(或拉)；苦干；n.拖；苦干；拖船

参考例句：

• We need to tug the car round to the front.我们需要把那辆车拉到前面。
• The tug is towing three barges.那只拖船正拖着三只驳船。

30 coalition   

n.结合体，同盟，结合，联合

参考例句：

• The several parties formed a coalition.这几个政党组成了政治联盟。
• Coalition forces take great care to avoid civilian casualties.联盟军队竭尽全力避免造成平民伤亡。

31 underlying   

adj.在下面的，含蓄的，潜在的

参考例句：

• The underlying theme of the novel is very serious.小说隐含的主题是十分严肃的。
• This word has its underlying meaning.这个单词有它潜在的含义。

32 subdued   

adj. 屈服的，柔和的，减弱的 动词subdue的过去式和过去分词

参考例句：

• He seemed a bit subdued to me. 我觉得他当时有点闷闷不乐。
• I felt strangely subdued when it was all over. 一切都结束的时候，我却有一种奇怪的压抑感。

33 frustrate   

v.使失望；使沮丧；使厌烦

参考例句：

• But this didn't frustrate Einstein.He was content to go as far as he could.但这并没有使爱因斯坦灰心，他对能够更深入地研究而感到满意。
• They made their preparations to frustrate the conspiracy.他们作好准备挫败这个阴谋。

34 bailing   

（凿井时用吊桶）排水

参考例句：

• Both fountains were going furiously and both pumps bailing with might and main. 两个人的口水只管喷泉似地朝外涌，两个抽水机全力以赴往外抽水。
• The mechanical sand-bailing technology makes sand-washing operation more efficient. 介绍了机械捞砂的结构装置及工作原理，提出了现场操作注意事项。