经济学人24:商业与保险,政治风险如何能抗?

 　　Businesses and insurance商业与保险How to become politics-proof政治风险，如何能抗

　　Businesses can get cover against some, but not all, political upheavals¹

　　某些政治动乱引起的商业损失能够得到补偿，但非全部

　　REGIME change has an awkward way of turning useful political contacts into liabilities. Just ask Ahmed Ezz, an Egyptian steel magnate and friend of Gamal Mubarak, son of the country’s ousted² president, when you next visit his jail cell. But businesses face political risk even in the absence of the kind of turmoil³ rocking the Middle East. Governments nationalise assets: in recent years, Congo has taken several mines from their private owners. They change the rules unexpectedly, making it harder to do business, as Research in Motion, the maker⁴ of the BlackBerry, found when some governments demanded access to users’ messages. They can enforce the law in the most draconian⁵ fashion against firms that displease⁶ them, as Russia’s Yukos found.

　　政权的更迭会让一桩有利的政府合同变成包袱。不信的话，你可以去问问艾哈迈德??伊斯。此人是埃及的钢铁巨头，前总统的儿子贾迈德??穆巴拉赫的朋友。但此时，他正身陷囹圄。但是，即使在那些有别于中东的动荡政局的地方，商业活动同样要面临政治风险。政府不断的对私人资产实行公有化：近年来，刚果政府收购了好几家私人煤矿。RIM（黑莓生产商）遭遇一些国家的政府希望获得手机用户的信息的情况时就意识到，政府对游戏规则出人意料的改变，使得生意越来越难做。俄罗斯的尤科斯也意识到，政府对于那些惹恼了他们的企业，采取的最严厉的方式，甚至是强制改变国家的法律。

　　A survey last year by the World Bank’s Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) found that political risk was the biggest deterrent⁷ for investors⁸ in developing countries over the longer term, ranked ahead of economic instability and bad infrastructure⁹. What can they do about it?

　　去年，由世界银行多变投资担保机构（MIGA）的研究表明，政治风险超过了经济不稳定以及基础设施恶劣，成为投资者们在发展中国家进行长期投资的最大顾虑。对此，他们能够做些什么呢？

　　Private insurers, national export-credit agencies and multilateral bodies like MIGA offer businesses cover against political shocks. But which firms they will insure, and on what terms, varies. National agencies, such as America’s Overseas Private Investment Corporation, tend to sell cover only to companies from their home country. Private insurers can be more risk-averse than multilateral agencies.

　　私营保险公司，国家出口信用机构以像MIGA一样的多边机构都为企业提供应对政治风险的保障。但是对被担保公司的种类以及保险条款上各有不同。国家机构，例如美国海外私人保险公司只为本国的公司提供保险。而私人保险公司相较于多边机构来说，对风险更为厌恶。

　　Not all risks are insurable. Cover is available for the sudden imposition of currency controls, expropriations, conflicts and terrorism, and for governments failing to keep their part of an investment deal, such as supplying a new factory with electricity. But legitimate¹⁰ policy changes (tax rises, say, or stricter environmental rules) cannot be covered, because of the insurer’s slim chances of recovering anything from the government concerned.

　　并非所有的风险都能投保。保险只针对突发的汇率管制，公司被征收，地区冲突恐怖袭击，以及政府无法保持的投资活动，例如对一家新工厂的持续供电。但是政策的变化（税收增加，或者更加严厉的环境保护措施等）不再保险范围之内。因为保险公司从相关政府得到补偿的机会是相当渺茫的。

　　The demand for political-risk insurance slumped¹¹ during the financial crisis, as companies made fewer investments. Members of the Berne Union, the largest group of providers of such cover, wrote only $36 billion of new policies in 2009, down 38% on the previous year. But business rebounded¹² sharply in 2010 when foreign investment into developing countries recovered. As regimes totter¹³ across the Middle East, those who offer cover against nasty political surprises look set to be even busier this year.

　　金融危机期间，由于各个公司投资的减少，政治风险保险的需求量有所下滑。全球最大的保险提供联盟——伯尔尼联盟的成员，在2009年的新政策保险业务额只有360亿美元，较2008年下降38%。但是在2010年，由于发展中国家的外资投资增加，保险额大幅反弹。随着中东地区的政权动荡，那些提供政治风险保险的公司将迎来忙碌的一年。

1 upheavals   

突然的巨变( upheaval的名词复数 )； 大动荡； 大变动； 胀起

参考例句：

• the latest upheavals in the education system 最近教育制度上的种种变更
• These political upheavals might well destroy the whole framework of society. 这些政治动乱很可能会破坏整个社会结构。

2 ousted   

驱逐( oust的过去式和过去分词 )； 革职； 罢黜； 剥夺

参考例句：

• He was ousted as chairman. 他的主席职务被革除了。
• He may be ousted by a military takeover. 他可能在一场军事接管中被赶下台。

3 turmoil   

n.骚乱，混乱，动乱

参考例句：

• His mind was in such a turmoil that he couldn't get to sleep.内心的纷扰使他无法入睡。
• The robbery put the village in a turmoil.抢劫使全村陷入混乱。

4 maker   

n.制造者，制造商

参考例句：

• He is a trouble maker，You must be distant with him.他是个捣蛋鬼，你不要跟他在一起。
• A cabinet maker must be a master craftsman.家具木工必须是技艺高超的手艺人。

5 draconian   

adj.严苛的；苛刻的；严酷的；龙一样的

参考例句：

• You can't expect the people to obey such draconian regulations.你不能指望人民服从如此严苛的规定。
• The city needs a draconian way of dealing with robbers.这个城市需要一个严苛的办法来对付强盗。

6 displease   

vt.使不高兴，惹怒；n.不悦，不满，生气

参考例句：

• Not wishing to displease her,he avoided answering the question.为了不惹她生气，他对这个问题避而不答。
• She couldn't afford to displease her boss.她得罪不起她的上司。

7 deterrent   

n.阻碍物，制止物；adj.威慑的，遏制的

参考例句：

• Large fines act as a deterrent to motorists.高额罚款是对开车的人的制约。
• I put a net over my strawberries as a deterrent to the birds.我在草莓上罩了网，免得鸟歇上去。

8 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

9 infrastructure   

n.下部构造，下部组织，基础结构，基础设施

参考例句：

• We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
• We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设，发展各类群众文化。

10 legitimate   

adj.合法的，合理的，合乎逻辑的；v.使合法

参考例句：

• Sickness is a legitimate reason for asking for leave.生病是请假的一个正当的理由。
• That's a perfectly legitimate fear.怀有这种恐惧完全在情理之中。

11 slumped   

大幅度下降，暴跌( slump的过去式和过去分词 )； 沉重或突然地落下[倒下]

参考例句：

• Sales have slumped this year. 今年销售量锐减。
• The driver was slumped exhausted over the wheel. 司机伏在方向盘上，疲惫得睡着了。

12 rebounded   

弹回( rebound的过去式和过去分词 )； 反弹； 产生反作用； 未能奏效

参考例句：

• The ball rebounded from the goalpost and Owen headed it in. 球从门柱弹回，欧文头球将球攻进。
• The ball rebounded from his racket into the net. 球从他的球拍上弹回网中。

13 totter   

v.蹒跚， 摇摇欲坠；n.蹒跚的步子

参考例句：

• He tottered to the fridge,got a beer and slumped at the table.他踉跄地走到冰箱前，拿出一瓶啤酒，一屁股坐在桌边。
• The property market is tottering.房地产市场摇摇欲坠。