经济学人194:待重头收拾旧山河

 　　The economy’s prospects¹

　　经济前景

　　Waiting for the earth to open

　　待重头收拾旧山河

　　The usual accelerators of recession are absent—but so are the brakes

　　经济不再像往常般加速下滑——而是已经减速

　　Aug 27th 2011 | WASHINGTON, DC | from the Economist² print edition

　　HOURS after an earthquake struck America’s east coast on August 23rd, office workers were still milling around the streets of Washington, DC and New York (above), nervously³ waiting for aftershocks. A similar watch over the economy is now under way. The earthquake that ripped through the American economy from 2007 to 2009 is still generating tremors⁴. The latest may be the strongest yet. Since late July stock markets in America and round the world have nosedived, fearful that America is falling back into recession and that Europe’s debt crisis will drag down its banks.

　　在美国东海岸8月23日的地震之后数个小时，上班族们仍在华盛顿和纽约（见上图）的街道上游荡着，惴惴不安地等待着下次余震。美国经济也正出现类似的情况。跨经2007年到2009年的美国经济大地震破坏其经济体系，并不断产生余震。或许，最后的才是最强的。自7月下旬美国股市和全球股市都遭受重创，人们担心美国经济衰退，同时也害怕欧洲的债务危机拖垮银行。

　　America’s economy is certainly weak. It grew at an annualised rate of just 0.4% in the first quarter and 1.3% in the second. Future revisions may push both numbers into negative territory: the economy would have already double-dipped.

　　美国经济确实已经很衰弱了。第一季度的经济增长只有0.4%，而第二季度则为1.3%。以后的计算修正或许会让这两个数字变为负值：美国经济已经出现二次探底。

　　Much of that weakness may be traced to the run-up in oil prices that followed the Libyan uprising and to the Japanese earthquake and tsunami⁵, which disrupted supply chains. As both shocks receded⁶, economic activity turned up. An index of economic reports compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago suggests that the economy grew in July (see chart 1), though it may since have flagged again.

　　经济的虚弱之处大部分应归咎于原油价格的急剧增长，这是因为在利比亚起义和日本地震海啸之后，原油的供应链遭到了破坏。在这两大冲击都有所减弱后，经济活动得到了喘息之机。在芝加哥联邦储备银行编纂的一份经济报告指数显示，美国经济在7月份产生正增长（见表1），虽然它后来可能会再次陷入低迷。

　　Economists⁷ have long speculated that weak growth of this sort is like an aircraft’s “stall speed”, below which it risks falling out of the sky. A paper by Jeremy Nalewaik of the Federal Reserve has found that since 1978, whenever the economy has grown less than 1% in a given quarter, a recession has soon followed half to two-thirds of the time. (The results depend on whether growth is measured by GDP or its alternative, gross domestic income).

　　经济学家们推测，这种类型的弱势增长就好像飞机的“失速速度”，一旦低于这个临界点，那么就有可能从空中坠落。美联储的Jeremy Nalewaik撰文写道，自1978年以来，无论何时只要某季度的经济增长率低于1%，那么很快地，在其后的一半或者三分之二的时间里就会处于衰退之中。（其时间取决于经济增长是用国内生产总值，还是用国内总收入来衡量。）

　　That is not as helpful as it sounds. Aircraft flying slowly do sometimes crash but, more often, they land. Slow-growing economies that fall into recession are typically pushed, as some shock forces a pre-existing imbalance to tip them over.

　　这并非像听起来那样有效。飞机飞的过慢时或许会坠毁，但更多的时候它们可以选择着陆。而陷入不景气的缓慢经济却往往处于困境之中，因为某些打击使得已失衡的部分倾覆整个经济体系。

　　Such imbalances are hard to find now in America. Housing, cars and business inventories⁸, the three most volatile⁹ components¹⁰ of GDP, usually accelerate the contraction¹¹ that brings recession. None looks especially stretched. Quite the opposite: house-construction has never climbed off the bottom, and now makes up just 2.4% of GDP, less than half its historical average (see chart 2). Mike Gorman, a builder in northern Virginia, says that his business has collapsed¹³ over the past three years. “We went from 40 employees to one part-timer. We’re building just a house or two here or there. It’s been… really, really quiet.” Car production has rebounded¹⁴, but to a level well below its typical share of GDP. The ratio of business inventories to sales, which soared during the recession, is now back to normal.

　　这样的不安定因素在美国已经很难找到。住房，汽车和商业库存，这国内生产总值的三大最不稳定成分，通常会加速导致衰退的通货紧缩。没有哪家能脱身事外。恰恰相反：住房建设从未脱离底部进入上升，并且现在仅占GDP的2.4%，低于历史平均水平的一半（见表2）。Mike Gorman，北弗吉尼亚州的一个建造商，说道他的生意在过去的三年里遭受重挫。“我们原来有40名雇员，而现在只有一个兼职人员。我们只是零散地盖了一两栋房子。这……真的，真的太萧条了。”汽车产量业已回升，但只是处于GDP的通常份额标准之下。商业存货销售比在经济衰退期间飙升，而现在也已经回跌到正常水平。

　　The shock that pushes the economy over the edge often originates in financial markets. Although stock prices have plummeted¹⁵, credit is relatively¹⁶ easy to come by. Spreads on corporate¹⁷ bonds are normal, short-term interest rates are deeply negative when adjusted for inflation, and the Fed’s latest survey has found banks more anxious to lend, “the exact opposite of lending conditions in the run-up to recession,” notes Kevin Logan of HSBC.

　　将经济推向悬崖边缘的冲击通常来源于金融市场。虽然股市一路暴跌，贷款却唾手可得。公司债券的信贷利差维持正常，而短期利率再算上通胀率影响后变为负值，而美联储最近调查表明银行更加急于放贷，“和衰退前夕的放贷环境恰恰相反，”汇丰银行的Kevin Logan随手记道。

　　Although the absence of obvious imbalances or financial strains does not eliminate the risk of recession in America, it does militate against a long, deep downturn. Indeed, it may be hard for most people to distinguish a shallow recession from lacklustre growth.

　　尽管缺少明显的经济不平衡和资金紧张的迹象，这也并不能消除美国会爆发经济衰退的风险，但是，这的确会对防止美国进入持久的大幅度的经济下滑产生影响。事实上，对于大多数人们来说，区分平淡无奇的增长和不明显的衰退是很困难的。

　　A recession indicator¹⁸ compiled by Macroeconomic Advisers¹⁹, a consultancy, from (among other things) stock prices, the real short-term interest rate, credit spreads, oil prices and the yield curve—the difference between short- and long-term rates—suggests that a recession is unlikely in the next 12 months, even when the yield curve, whose behaviour has been distorted by Federal Reserve policy, is excluded.

　　宏观经济咨询公司编写了一项经济衰退的指标，从（多方面）股价，不动产短期利率，信用差价，油价以及收率曲线——短期与长期利率不同——可以看出，在接下来的一年中，经济衰退可能性不大，即使排除了受到美联储政策影响的收益曲线，衰退仍旧不会发生。

　　But Joel Prakken, the firm’s chairman, has limited confidence in that forecast. The historical data used to predict recessions in the past are less useful if a new shock cannot be offset²⁰ with fiscal²¹ and monetary²² policy. Japan’s collapse¹² back into recession in 1998 is a cautionary tale. The government raised the consumption tax in April 1997 in an attempt to rein²³ in the rising debt. Two major shocks then aggravated²⁴ that fiscal restraint: the Asian financial crisis, which pummelled exports, and the collapse of several big financial institutions. With interest rates already at 0.5%, monetary policy could not cushion the blow.

　　但是宏观咨询公司的董事长Joel Prakken对预测信心有限。如果一场新的冲击不能用财政和货币政策来抵消的话，预测过去衰退所用的历史数据现在的效用就会大大减少。日本在1998年的经济崩溃是一个劝谕。日本政府在1997年4月提升了消费税，试图控制不断增长的负债。两大冲击加重了财政紧缩的局面：重创其出口的亚洲金融危机和几家大型金融机构的倒闭。在利率已经达到0.5%的低点时，货币政策也无法和缓这种紧张局势。

　　Whether recession is avoided will therefore depend heavily on luck and the wisdom of policymakers. The Fed is not about to tighten²⁵ monetary policy; indeed, the markets are searching for signs from Ben Bernanke, the chairman, that it may loosen policy through buying more bonds or changing the mix of its bond holdings, though they are likely to be disappointed. However, fiscal policy is likely to tighten as several fiscal measures expire, knocking some 2% off GDP from January onwards. In a speech next month President Barack Obama plans to challenge the special congressional committee now looking for $1.5 trillion in deficit²⁶ cuts to supply, at the same time, some near-term fiscal stimulus²⁷. Republicans are unreceptive. Eric Cantor, their leader in the House of Representatives, recently warned against “discussions of new stimulus spending with money that we simply do not have.”

　　是否避免衰退因此将十分取决于运气和政策制定者的聪明才智。美联储不可能收紧货币政策；事实上，市场正在搜寻来自于美联储主席Ben Bernanke的，有关于美联储将通过买入更多债券或者改变所持债券组合的方式来放松政策的信号，然而他们很可能会失望。然而，财政政策可能会因为几项财政措施的到期而收紧，从而损失了一月以来2%的国内生产总值。在一场演讲中，奥巴马打算9月对特殊国家委员会发起挑战，而与此同时，他正在削减15亿美元赤字以实现财政刺激。共和党对此表示不会接受。众议院领袖Eric Cantor最近对"关于这种拆东墙补西墙的做法的讨论”表示了警告。

　　The brinkmanship that preceded the increase in the debt ceiling on August 2nd, the downgrade to America’s credit rating and the fiscal turbulence²⁸ in Europe, are the sorts of things that could produce a self-fulfilling collapse in confidence. Steve Alloy²⁹, another Virginia builder, recalls how the talk of America defaulting deterred³⁰ many of his customers. Then, the day after default was averted³¹, five abruptly³² bought houses. Such stories may serve to concentrate minds in Congress and bring about a more rational fiscal outcome.

　　在8月2日增加债务限额前的紧急政策，美国的信用等级降级以及欧洲财政动乱，都可视为导致自我信心崩溃的同类事件。另一个弗吉尼亚州建筑商Steve Alloy则回想起有关美国违约的谈论使得他许多客户打消念头。然后，债务违约危机解除的第二天，有5个人于是突然购买了房屋。建筑商的故事应该要告诉国会里的那帮人，这样他们才会更集中自己的精神和才智，然后为全美的经济衰退局面带来一个更合理的财政处理结果。

　　Mr Cantor says constituents³³ in his Virginia district have complained that political brinkmanship has pushed the economy to the edge of disaster. Coincidentally, they were also living next to the epicentre of the earthquake. Having lived through terrestrial upheavals³⁴, they have no appetite for the economic equivalent.

　　Cantor先生说，在弗吉尼亚地区的人抱怨政治性的紧急政策将美国经济推向了灾难的边缘。巧合的是，他们生活的地方也靠近地震震中区域。他们在地壳巨变中生还下来，却已无力再去面对经济上的地震。

1 prospects   

n.希望，前途(恒为复数)

参考例句：

• There is a mood of pessimism in the company about future job prospects. 公司中有一种对工作前景悲观的情绪。
• They are less sanguine about the company's long-term prospects. 他们对公司的远景不那么乐观。

2 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

3 nervously   

adv.神情激动地，不安地

参考例句：

• He bit his lip nervously,trying not to cry.他紧张地咬着唇，努力忍着不哭出来。
• He paced nervously up and down on the platform.他在站台上情绪不安地走来走去。

4 tremors   

震颤( tremor的名词复数 )； 战栗； 震颤声； 大地的轻微震动

参考例句：

• The story was so terrible that It'sent tremors down my spine. 这故事太可怕，它使我不寒而栗。
• The story was so terrible that it sent tremors down my spine. 这故事太可怕，它使我不寒而栗。

5 tsunami   

n.海啸

参考例句：

• Powerful quake sparks tsunami warning in Japan.大地震触发了日本的海啸预警。
• Coastlines all around the Indian Ocean inundated by a huge tsunami.大海啸把印度洋沿岸地区都淹没了。

6 receded   

v.逐渐远离( recede的过去式和过去分词 )；向后倾斜；自原处后退或避开别人的注视；尤指问题

参考例句：

• The floodwaters have now receded. 洪水现已消退。
• The sound of the truck receded into the distance. 卡车的声音渐渐在远处消失了。

7 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

8 inventories   

n.总结( inventory的名词复数 )；细账；存货清单（或财产目录）的编制

参考例句：

• In other cases, such as inventories, inputs and outputs are both continuous. 在另一些情况下，比如存货，其投入和产出都是持续不断的。
• The store must clear its winter inventories by April 1st. 该店必须在4月1日前售清冬季存货。

9 volatile   

adj.反复无常的，挥发性的，稍纵即逝的，脾气火爆的；n.挥发性物质

参考例句：

• With the markets being so volatile,investments are at great risk.由于市场那么变化不定，投资冒着很大的风险。
• His character was weak and volatile.他这个人意志薄弱，喜怒无常。

10 components   

（机器、设备等的）构成要素，零件，成分； 成分( component的名词复数 )； [物理化学]组分； [数学]分量； （混合物的）组成部分

参考例句：

• the components of a machine 机器部件
• Our chemistry teacher often reduces a compound to its components in lab. 在实验室中化学老师常把化合物分解为各种成分。

11 contraction   

n.缩略词，缩写式，害病

参考例句：

• The contraction of this muscle raises the lower arm.肌肉的收缩使前臂抬起。
• The forces of expansion are balanced by forces of contraction.扩张力和收缩力相互平衡。

12 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

13 collapsed   

adj.倒塌的

参考例句：

• Jack collapsed in agony on the floor. 杰克十分痛苦地瘫倒在地板上。
• The roof collapsed under the weight of snow. 房顶在雪的重压下突然坍塌下来。

14 rebounded   

弹回( rebound的过去式和过去分词 )； 反弹； 产生反作用； 未能奏效

参考例句：

• The ball rebounded from the goalpost and Owen headed it in. 球从门柱弹回，欧文头球将球攻进。
• The ball rebounded from his racket into the net. 球从他的球拍上弹回网中。

15 plummeted   

v.垂直落下，骤然跌落( plummet的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• Share prices plummeted to an all-time low. 股票价格暴跌到历史最低点。
• A plane plummeted to earth. 一架飞机一头栽向地面。 来自《简明英汉词典》

16 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

17 corporate   

adj.共同的，全体的；公司的，企业的

参考例句：

• This is our corporate responsibility.这是我们共同的责任。
• His corporate's life will be as short as a rabbit's tail.他的公司的寿命是兔子尾巴长不了。

18 indicator   

n.指标；指示物，指示者；指示器

参考例句：

• Gold prices are often seen as an indicator of inflation.黃金价格常常被看作是通货膨胀的指标。
• His left-hand indicator is flashing.他左手边的转向灯正在闪亮。

19 advisers   

顾问，劝告者( adviser的名词复数 )； （指导大学新生学科问题等的）指导教授

参考例句：

• a member of the President's favoured circle of advisers 总统宠爱的顾问班子中的一员
• She withdrew to confer with her advisers before announcing a decision. 她先去请教顾问然后再宣布决定。

20 offset   

n.分支，补偿；v.抵消，补偿

参考例句：

• Their wage increases would be offset by higher prices.他们增加的工资会被物价上涨所抵消。
• He put up his prices to offset the increased cost of materials.他提高了售价以补偿材料成本的增加。

21 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

22 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

23 rein   

n.疆绳，统治，支配；vt.以僵绳控制，统治

参考例句：

• The horse answered to the slightest pull on the rein.只要缰绳轻轻一拉,马就作出反应。
• He never drew rein for a moment till he reached the river.他一刻不停地一直跑到河边。

24 aggravated   

使恶化( aggravate的过去式和过去分词 )； 使更严重； 激怒； 使恼火

参考例句：

• If he aggravated me any more I shall hit him. 假如他再激怒我，我就要揍他。
• Far from relieving my cough, the medicine aggravated it. 这药非但不镇咳，反而使我咳嗽得更厉害。

25 tighten   

v.(使)变紧；(使)绷紧

参考例句：

• Turn the screw to the right to tighten it.向右转动螺钉把它拧紧。
• Some countries tighten monetary policy to avoid inflation.一些国家实行紧缩银根的货币政策，以避免通货膨胀。

26 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

27 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

28 turbulence   

n.喧嚣，狂暴，骚乱，湍流

参考例句：

• The turbulence caused the plane to turn over.空气的激流导致飞机翻转。
• The world advances amidst turbulence.世界在动荡中前进。

29 alloy   

n.合金，(金属的)成色

参考例句：

• The company produces titanium alloy.该公司生产钛合金。
• Bronze is an alloy of copper and tin.青铜是铜和锡的合金。

30 deterred   

v.阻止，制止( deter的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• I told him I wasn't interested, but he wasn't deterred. 我已告诉他我不感兴趣，可他却不罢休。
• Jeremy was not deterred by this criticism. 杰里米没有因这一批评而却步。 来自辞典例句

31 averted   

防止，避免( avert的过去式和过去分词 )； 转移

参考例句：

• A disaster was narrowly averted. 及时防止了一场灾难。
• Thanks to her skilful handling of the affair, the problem was averted. 多亏她对事情处理得巧妙，才避免了麻烦。

32 abruptly   

adv.突然地，出其不意地

参考例句：

• He gestured abruptly for Virginia to get in the car.他粗鲁地示意弗吉尼亚上车。
• I was abruptly notified that a half-hour speech was expected of me.我突然被通知要讲半个小时的话。

33 constituents   

n.选民( constituent的名词复数 )；成分；构成部分；要素

参考例句：

• She has the full support of her constituents. 她得到本区选民的全力支持。
• Hydrogen and oxygen are the constituents of water. 氢和氧是水的主要成分。 来自《简明英汉词典》

34 upheavals   

突然的巨变( upheaval的名词复数 )； 大动荡； 大变动； 胀起

参考例句：

• the latest upheavals in the education system 最近教育制度上的种种变更
• These political upheavals might well destroy the whole framework of society. 这些政治动乱很可能会破坏整个社会结构。