经济学人306:酒醉以酒解 A Hair of The Dog

 　　AFTER three years of stagnant¹ loan growth, The Peoples Bank in Coldwater, Ohio, has noticed a change. Clients who two years ago would not have qualified² for a loan now find that they can. One customer who was working for only 35 hours a week two years ago is now working 45 to 50 hours. “That was his reason for coming in: he had steadier income,” says Jack³ Hartings, president of the seven-branch bank. Since the bank’s main alternative to lending money is buying Treasury⁴ bonds that yield only 1%-2%, Mr Hartings is eager to make new loans.

　　借债增长停滞三年以后，在俄亥俄州的冷水的人民银行已经公告了一个变化。两年前没有贷款资格的顾客现在获得了贷款资格。两年前每周只需工作35小时的顾客现在每周可以工作45-50小时。“这就是顾客来到银行的原因：他们拥有了更稳定的收入”第七分支银行的行长杰克?黑斯廷斯如是说。由于银行贷款被购买收益仅仅1%-2%的国库债券所替代，所以黑斯廷斯先生热切渴望新的放贷。

　　Across the country, bank lending, which shrank almost steadily⁵ from early 2009, is growing again (see chart), thanks to modest employment growth, stabilising home prices in many regions, and the Federal Reserve’s Herculean efforts to hold down interest rates.

　　从2009年初几乎有规律缩水的遍布各地的银行放贷再次增长（如图），这得益于适度的就业增长、一些区域的稳定的家庭消费和美联储压低利率的大力努力。

　　This is helping⁶. In the fourth quarter, America’s economy grew by 2.8% at an annual rate, the fastest in an otherwise dreary⁷ year. Much of that was from inventory⁸ restocking which will not be repeated. Still, consumer spending rose at a 2% annual rate and house building expanded by 11%, the most since 2004.

　　这是有所帮助的。在第四季度，美国经济以年利率2.8%的速率增长，比起其他萧条的年份是最快的一年。这很大程度上得益于后无来者的库存补充存货。此外，消费性开支以2%的年率增长，住房建筑以11%的年率扩张，是自2004年以来最可观的一次。

　　Both of these sectors⁹ were helped by easier credit. Moderate job growth, skimpy pay rises and higher petrol prices held growth in income after taxes and inflation to just 0.9% last year. Consumption grew faster because households borrowed more and saved less. Saving, which had topped 5% as a share of disposable income in the wake of the recession, had fallen to 3.5% in November.

　　两个这样的部分都是得益于更简单的信用。稳健的就业增长，微薄的工资增加和更高的汽油价格在税后的收入和通货膨胀的影响下仅是去年的九成。消费更快的增长是由于家庭承担了更多的借款而存款变少。作为超过可支配收入一份额5%的存款随着不景气的到来已经在十一月落到了3.5%。

　　This was not sustainable, and indeed the saving rate jumped back to 4% in December. Are further increases in store? If so, that would hold back consumption, which accounts for roughly two-thirds of GDP. And indeed that is the main reason recoveries after financial crises are usually sluggish¹⁰: households and businesses have to hack¹¹ back the debt they accumulated during the boom years, a process called deleveraging. Households have as expected reduced their debts relative to their incomes; much of that has come by defaulting on their loans. More such defaults are probably in store. The question is, will consumers also divert more of their income from consumption? That would cause the saving rate to rise further.

　　存款利率在十二月降到了4%已是不争的事实，并且让人无法忍受。那么物价会进一步增长吗？如果增长，那么大致占GDP2/3比例的消费将回落。实际上，主要原因在于金融危机之后的复苏通常是迟缓的：家庭和企业必须归还他们在经济高度增长年份所积累的债务，这过程被称作资金杠杆。家庭希望债务相对于收入来说能够得到缩减；到头来他们大多数都拒还贷款。或许还有更多的这样的拒绝偿付贷款的行为将要发生。问题是，消费者投入到消费性开支的收入会不会变得更少。如果会，那将会导致储蓄率进一步提升。

　　Nathan Sheets, an economist¹² at Citigroup, reckons that household debt, now running at 120% of disposable income, should be 100% to 110% given the current configuration¹³ of interest rates, unemployment and asset values. This, he reckons, can be achieved with a saving rate of just 4.5%, not much higher than it is now. But the Bank Credit Analyst¹⁴, a financial forecasting service, thinks households’ current net worth is more consistent with a saving rate of 6%.

　　一位花旗集团的经济学者南森?史特斯估计到目前家庭负债已经达到了可支配收入的120%，其中100%-110%应该是由当前利率、失业率和资产价值的结构所造成的。他估计这可能会伴随着仅仅4.5%的储蓄率发生，而绝不会比现在的储蓄率更高。但是一项金融预报服务银行信贷分析表认为家庭当前的资产净值绝对能够和6%的储蓄率想匹配。

　　A higher saving rate would be much less painful for the economy if it were achieved through increased income rather than lower spending. That could happen. The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO), in its economic outlook released on January 31st, reckoned that real disposable incomes would grow by 3% this year thanks both to faster wage growth and a big drop in inflation. That, it reckons, should support growth in consumption and overall GDP of 2%.

　　一个更高的储蓄率如果是通过增加收入而非降低花销所成就那么经济所承受的创伤会更小。那将会发生。无党派国会预算局，在其1月31号发布的经济前景报告中预计真正的可支配性收入将会在今年增长3%，这得益于更快的工资增速和通货膨胀的大跌落。这项报告同样预测那将会促进消费的增长，同时也会促进GDP总体上升2个百分点。

　　Plenty could go wrong with this scenario¹⁵. Oil prices could spike¹⁶ again; banks, worried about Europe, could tighten¹⁷ their lending standards, as they already have done for some business loans. And at the end of 2012 an even bigger threat looms¹⁸: taxes will automatically rise and spending shrink unless Congress votes to override¹⁹ existing legislation. The CBO reckons that would slice the deficit²⁰ in half, but at the cost of pummeling the economy. For private deleveraging to proceed, public deleveraging may have to wait.

　　在这种情况下，大量的事物将不会按照正常的轨道运行。油价可能再次飙升；银行尤其在欧洲可能会收紧贷款标准，就像他们曾经对待一些商业贷款时做的那样。到2012年末一个更大的威胁甚至会出现：除非国会推翻现存的立法，否则税金将会自动的增长并且消费将会缩水。国会预算局认为那将会使赤字减半，但要以刺激经济为代价。为了个人的资金杠杆得以运行，公共的资金杠杆必须的拖后。

1 stagnant   

adj.不流动的，停滞的，不景气的

参考例句：

• Due to low investment,industrial output has remained stagnant.由于投资少，工业生产一直停滞不前。
• Their national economy is stagnant.他们的国家经济停滞不前。

2 qualified   

adj.合格的，有资格的，胜任的，有限制的

参考例句：

• He is qualified as a complete man of letters.他有资格当真正的文学家。
• We must note that we still lack qualified specialists.我们必须看到我们还缺乏有资质的专家。

3 jack   

n.插座，千斤顶，男人；v.抬起，提醒，扛举；n.（Jake）杰克

参考例句：

• I am looking for the headphone jack.我正在找寻头戴式耳机插孔。
• He lifted the car with a jack to change the flat tyre.他用千斤顶把车顶起来换下瘪轮胎。

4 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

5 steadily   

adv.稳定地；不变地；持续地

参考例句：

• The scope of man's use of natural resources will steadily grow.人类利用自然资源的广度将日益扩大。
• Our educational reform was steadily led onto the correct path.我们的教学改革慢慢上轨道了。

6 helping   

n.食物的一份&adj.帮助人的，辅助的

参考例句：

• The poor children regularly pony up for a second helping of my hamburger. 那些可怜的孩子们总是要求我把我的汉堡包再给他们一份。
• By doing this, they may at times be helping to restore competition. 这样一来, 他在某些时候,有助于竞争的加强。

7 dreary   

adj.令人沮丧的，沉闷的，单调乏味的

参考例句：

• They live such dreary lives.他们的生活如此乏味。
• She was tired of hearing the same dreary tale of drunkenness and violence.她听够了那些关于酗酒和暴力的乏味故事。

8 inventory   

n.详细目录，存货清单

参考例句：

• Some stores inventory their stock once a week.有些商店每周清点存货一次。
• We will need to call on our supplier to get more inventory.我们必须请供应商送来更多存货。

9 sectors   

n.部门( sector的名词复数 )；领域；防御地区；扇形

参考例句：

• Berlin was divided into four sectors after the war. 战后柏林分成了4 个区。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Industry and agriculture are the two important sectors of the national economy. 工业和农业是国民经济的两个重要部门。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

10 sluggish   

adj.懒惰的，迟钝的，无精打采的

参考例句：

• This humid heat makes you feel rather sluggish.这种湿热的天气使人感到懒洋洋的。
• Circulation is much more sluggish in the feet than in the hands.脚部的循环比手部的循环缓慢得多。

11 hack   

n.劈，砍，出租马车；v.劈，砍，干咳

参考例句：

• He made a hack at the log.他朝圆木上砍了一下。
• Early settlers had to hack out a clearing in the forest where they could grow crops.早期移民不得不在森林里劈出空地种庄稼。

12 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

13 configuration   

n.结构，布局，形态，(计算机)配置

参考例句：

• Geographers study the configuration of the mountains.地理学家研究山脉的地形轮廓。
• Prices range from $119 to $199,depending on the particular configuration.价格因具体配置而异，从119美元至199美元不等。

14 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

15 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。

16 spike   

n.长钉，钉鞋；v.以大钉钉牢，使...失效

参考例句：

• The spike pierced the receipts and held them in order.那个钉子穿过那些收据并使之按顺序排列。
• They'll do anything to spike the guns of the opposition.他们会使出各种手段来挫败对手。

17 tighten   

v.(使)变紧；(使)绷紧

参考例句：

• Turn the screw to the right to tighten it.向右转动螺钉把它拧紧。
• Some countries tighten monetary policy to avoid inflation.一些国家实行紧缩银根的货币政策，以避免通货膨胀。

18 looms   

n.织布机( loom的名词复数 )v.隐约出现，阴森地逼近( loom的第三人称单数 )；隐约出现，阴森地逼近

参考例句：

• All were busily engaged,men at their ploughs,women at their looms. 大家都很忙，男的耕田，女的织布。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The factory has twenty-five looms. 那家工厂有25台织布机。 来自《简明英汉词典》

19 override   

vt.不顾，不理睬，否决；压倒，优先于

参考例句：

• The welfare of a child should always override the wishes of its parents.孩子的幸福安康应该永远比父母的愿望来得更重要。
• I'm applying in advance for the authority to override him.我提前申请当局对他进行否决。

20 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。