经济学人318:房屋市场春寒料峭

 　　THE reanimation of America’s housing market has been a long time coming. Residential¹ building last contributed positively² to growth in 2005. Housing-construction employment has dropped 43% since then. Government efforts to resuscitate³ the market have flopped⁴. Yet tantalising signs of a durable⁵ recovery are emerging at last. The National Association of Home Builders’ index of builder confidence rose for a fifth consecutive⁶ month in February, to its highest level since May 2007 (see chart). Sales of previously-owned homes rose 4.3% from December to January. The housing overhang is receding⁷. The number of homes for sale dropped 21% in the year to January, to just over six months of supply—a “normal” level.

　　美国翘首以盼房屋市场复苏等得脖子都长了。房屋市场把最后的一点力量贡献给了2005年的经济增长，随后，房屋建造业的就业率就下降了43%。政府在拯救房屋市场的努力也懈怠了，好在耐用品市场最终显示出好转迹象。2月份房屋建造业协会的建设者信心指数迎来连续第5个月增长，达到了2007年5月份以来的最高水平（见图表）。1月份二手房销售比去年12月份上涨了4.3%，未售房产库存量也有所下降。今年1月份，待售房屋数量下降21%稍稍多于半年的房屋供应量——一个“正常”水平。

　　The recovery is an odd one by American standards, centred on the rental⁸ market. Though house prices sank 4% in 2011, rents posted a 2.4% increase, thanks to tumbling vacancy⁹ rates. Tight conditions are a side-effect of the housing bust¹⁰. Construction hit a record low in 2011, surpassing a 2010 performance which itself displaced 2009’s. The pressure from America’s growing population is now showing. Builders are responding. The number of new building permits jumped 19% in the year to January. Approvals for buildings with five or more units, which are favoured by renters, soared by 61%.

　　这一主要在房屋租赁市场的复苏现象以美国标准来看是比较奇怪的。虽然房价在2011年减少了4%，房屋租金却因为缩水的房屋闲置率涨了2.4%。房市泡沫的一个副作用就是用地紧张。房屋建造业自2009年成绩一路下滑，最后在2011年跌入谷底。美国人口增长的压力现在开始显现出来，施工人员回应道。今年1月份新房建造许可证的数量上升19%。深受承租人青睐的有5个或更多单间的房屋建造许可证数量一下蹿了61%。

　　Meanwhile, adults who sheltered with friends or family during the recession are striking out on their own. A Goldman Sachs analysis reckons that growth in new households has been some 50% short of trend since the recession began, with over half of the shortfall coming from those aged¹¹ 18-34. Goldman reckons the worst is over, and that the young should soon add to new housing demand.

　　与此同时，在大萧条时期和家人或朋友一起住的人也开始搬出去自己住。高盛投资的一位分析师称，在大萧条时期开始后新家庭的增长速度下降了有一半，这50%中有超过一半是18-34岁之间的年轻人造成的。高盛称低潮已经过去，那些年轻人马上就有购买新房的需求了。

　　Those rising rents make buying a bargain: as attractive as it has been for three decades, according to the National Association of Realtors’ index of housing affordability¹². Stocks of homes for sale are falling as investors¹³ snap up and convert vacant homes for renting out. Were it practical, mused¹⁴ Warren Buffett recently, he would buy up “a couple of hundred thousand” homes.

　　据国家房产经纪人协会的住房购买力指数显示，租金的上涨让购买新房相对便宜：可以说是30年来魅力不减。由于投资商抢购空房并转手出租，待售房库存量下降。最近沃伦?巴菲特思考道，这样做是否有效，因为他要把数十万的空房都买下来。

　　Yet despite this good news, housing finance is frail¹⁵ as ever. Lending rose in the fourth quarter of 2011, but stuck at the lowest level since 2000 for the year as a whole. The market is still working off sickly loans. New delinquencies are down sharply from 2008, yet more than $150 billion in home loans became delinquent¹⁶ in the fourth quarter of last year. More trouble lies ahead. Over 10m borrowers owe more than the value of their home. Banks are wary¹⁷ of new mortgages—and losses—while prices are falling. The Federal Reserve’s Senior Loan Officer Survey suggests that lending standards remain higher than at the height of the recession.

　　不过，撇开这个好消息，住房信贷依旧虚弱如前。虽说房屋贷款在2011年第四季度上涨，但以全年整体水平来看，却是自2000年以来的最低水平。更多的麻烦还在前面等着呢。超过1千万名贷款买房者欠下银行的债比他们的房子的资产还要多。在房价走低的时候，银行对新按揭——和损失处理得小心翼翼。美联储高级信贷人员调查显示，借贷标准比大萧条时期达到的高点还要高。

　　Washington remains¹⁸ behind the curve. Fearing for its finances, the Federal Housing Administration is increasing fees on mortgages it insures, which account for roughly a third of all new bank loans. A typical borrower’s loan costs may rise by just $5 a month, yet American Banker, a financial-services daily, suggests the rise could cut lending by billions of dollars. The Federal Housing Finance Agency is moving only slowly to pack foreclosed-on homes into bunches to be sold to investors for renting out. Thanks to those renters, the worst may be over. But it will be years before the mortgage market fully¹⁹ recovers.

　　美国政府还没有跟上形势。因为担心现在的财政状况，联邦住房管理局抬高了担保按揭贷款的费用，大约占新的银行贷款的三分之一。一个典型的贷款者每月需要还的房贷可能会上涨5美元，不过，金融类日报《美国银行家》称，还贷量增加可缩减数十亿美元的借贷。联邦住房金融署磨磨蹭蹭地把止赎房屋收回并卖给投资商，让他们转租出去。多亏那些租房者，最困难的坎儿似乎度过去了，但是想让按揭市场完全好转过来还需要很长时间。

1 residential   

adj.提供住宿的；居住的；住宅的

参考例句：

• The mayor inspected the residential section of the city.市长视察了该市的住宅区。
• The residential blocks were integrated with the rest of the college.住宿区与学院其他部分结合在了一起。

2 positively   

adv.明确地，断然，坚决地；实在，确实

参考例句：

• She was positively glowing with happiness.她满脸幸福。
• The weather was positively poisonous.这天气着实讨厌。

3 resuscitate   

v.使复活，使苏醒

参考例句：

• A policeman and then a paramedic tried to resuscitate her.一名警察和一位护理人员先后试图救活她。
• As instructed by Rinpoche,we got the doctors to resuscitate him.遵照仁波切的指示，我们找来医生帮他进行急救。

4 flopped   

v.（指书、戏剧等）彻底失败( flop的过去式和过去分词 )；（因疲惫而）猛然坐下；（笨拙地、不由自主地或松弛地）移动或落下；砸锅

参考例句：

• Exhausted, he flopped down into a chair. 他筋疲力尽，一屁股坐到椅子上。
• It was a surprise to us when his play flopped. 他那出戏一败涂地，出乎我们的预料。 来自《简明英汉词典》

5 durable   

adj.持久的，耐久的

参考例句：

• This raincoat is made of very durable material.这件雨衣是用非常耐用的料子做的。
• They frequently require more major durable purchases.他们经常需要购买耐用消费品。

6 consecutive   

adj.连续的，联贯的，始终一贯的

参考例句：

• It has rained for four consecutive days.已连续下了四天雨。
• The policy of our Party is consecutive.我党的政策始终如一。

7 receding   

v.逐渐远离( recede的现在分词 )；向后倾斜；自原处后退或避开别人的注视；尤指问题

参考例句：

• Desperately he struck out after the receding lights of the yacht. 游艇的灯光渐去渐远，他拼命划水追赶。 来自辞典例句
• Sounds produced by vehicles receding from us seem lower-pitched than usual. 渐渐远离我们的运载工具发出的声似乎比平常的音调低。 来自辞典例句

8 rental   

n.租赁，出租，出租业

参考例句：

• The yearly rental of her house is 2400 yuan.她这房子年租金是2400元。
• We can organise car rental from Chicago O'Hare Airport.我们可以安排提供从芝加哥奥黑尔机场出发的租车服务。

9 vacancy   

n.（旅馆的）空位，空房，（职务的）空缺

参考例句：

• Her going on maternity leave will create a temporary vacancy.她休产假时将会有一个临时空缺。
• The vacancy of her expression made me doubt if she was listening.她茫然的神情让我怀疑她是否在听。

10 bust   

vt.打破；vi.爆裂；n.半身像；胸部

参考例句：

• I dropped my camera on the pavement and bust it. 我把照相机掉在人行道上摔坏了。
• She has worked up a lump of clay into a bust.她把一块黏土精心制作成一个半身像。

11 aged   

adj.年老的，陈年的

参考例句：

• He had put on weight and aged a little.他胖了，也老点了。
• He is aged,but his memory is still good.他已年老，然而记忆力还好。

12 affordability   

可购性

参考例句：

• Performance-Based Logistics Affordability: Can We Afford Categorical Conversion to Performance-Based Acquisition? 基于性能的后期的可承受性：能否担负得起向基于性能的采办的无条件的转变？
• There would be no crisis of affordability, as't for food or clothing. 就想食物与服装一样，因为供给没有危机。

13 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

14 mused   

v.沉思，冥想( muse的过去式和过去分词 )；沉思自语说（某事）

参考例句：

• \"I wonder if I shall ever see them again, \"he mused. “我不知道是否还可以再见到他们，”他沉思自问。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• \"Where are we going from here?\" mused one of Rutherford's guests. 卢瑟福的一位客人忍不住说道：‘我们这是在干什么？” 来自英汉非文学 - 科学史

15 frail   

adj.身体虚弱的；易损坏的

参考例句：

• Mrs. Warner is already 96 and too frail to live by herself.华纳太太已经九十六岁了，身体虚弱，不便独居。
• She lay in bed looking particularly frail.她躺在床上，看上去特别虚弱。

16 delinquent   

adj.犯法的，有过失的；n.违法者

参考例句：

• Most delinquent children have deprived backgrounds.多数少年犯都有未受教育的背景。
• He is delinquent in paying his rent.他拖欠房租。

17 wary   

adj.谨慎的，机警的，小心的

参考例句：

• He is wary of telling secrets to others.他谨防向他人泄露秘密。
• Paula frowned,suddenly wary.宝拉皱了皱眉头，突然警惕起来。

18 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

19 fully   

adv.完全地，全部地，彻底地；充分地

参考例句：

• The doctor asked me to breathe in,then to breathe out fully.医生让我先吸气，然后全部呼出。
• They soon became fully integrated into the local community.他们很快就完全融入了当地人的圈子。