经济学人496:第一次世界大战 再回首 忧心忡忡

 　　Leaders

　　社论

　　The First World War

　　第一次世界大战

　　Look back with angst

　　再回首 忧心忡忡

　　A century on, there are uncomfortable parallels with the era that led to the outbreak of the First World War

　　一战过去已有一个世纪，回望一战却发现与当今世界有不少相似之处，令人不安。

　　AS NEW YEAR approached a century ago, most people in the West looked forward to 1914 with optimism.

　　一个世纪前，同是新年将至，许多西方人对即将来临的1914年充满期待。

　　The hundred years since the Battle of Waterloo had not been entirely¹ free of disaster—there had been a horrific civil war in America, some regional scraps² in Asia, the Franco-Prussian war and the occasional colonial calamity³.

　　滑铁卢战役百年来，世界仍未完全摆脱灾难—美国爆发严重内战，亚洲部分地区变成废墟，普法战争爆发，殖民地灾难时有发生。

　　But continental⁴ peace had prevailed.

　　不过，各大陆整体来说还是和平的。

　　Globalisation and new technology—the telephone, the steamship⁵, the train—had knitted the world together.

　　全球化进程加深，加上电话，蒸汽船，火车等新技术应运而生，世界各国紧密相连。

　　John Maynard Keynes has a wonderful image of a Londoner of the time, sipping⁶ his morning tea in bed and ordering the various products of the whole earth to his door, much as he might today from Amazon—and regarding this state of affairs as normal, certain and permanent, except in the direction of further improvement.

　　凯恩斯精彩描绘了当时伦敦人的生活情景，躺在床上啧吧啧吧喝着早茶，订购来自全世界各地的各种产品还送货上门，就像现在从亚马逊上购物一样—他们认为这种状态正常，必然且不变，要变也只会变更好。

　　The Londoner might well have had by his bedside table a copy of Norman Angell's The Great Illusion, which laid out the argument thatEurope's economies were so integrated that war was futile⁷.

　　他们的床头桌上可能还放着一本诺曼?安吉尔的《大幻觉》，例举种种说明欧洲经济高度一体化，战争无用。

　　Yet within a year, the world was embroiled⁸ in a most horrific war.

　　然而不到一年，整个世界卷入了一场极端可怕的战争。

　　It cost 9m lives—and many times that number if you take in the various geopolitical tragedies it left in its wake, from the creation of Soviet⁹ Russia to the too-casual redrawing of Middle Eastern borders and the rise of Hitler.

　　一战中，900万人丧生；一战后，苏联建国，中东地区的国家边界被草率划定，希特勒迅速崛起，若把这些尾随一战而来的地缘政治惨剧都囊括在内的话，死亡人数可就要翻好几番了。

　　From being a friend of freedom, technology became an agent of brutality¹⁰, slaughtering¹¹ and enslaving people on a terrifying scale.

　　而科技，从自由之友摇身变成暴行的代理人，无数人因此遭屠杀、被奴役。

　　Barriers shot up around the world, especially during the Great Depression of the 1930s.

　　世界各地壁垒林立，在20世纪30年代经济大萧条时期更是如此。

　　The globalisation that Keynes's Londoner enjoyed only really began again in 1945—or, some would argue, in the 1990s, when eastern Europe was set free and Deng Xiaoping's reforms began bearing fruit in China.

　　凯恩斯笔下伦敦人享受的全球化真正再次出现已是1945年，或是有人认为的20世纪90年代，那时西欧解放，邓小平在中国的改革开放已初见成效。

　　The driving force behind the catastrophe¹² that befell the world a century ago wasGermany, which was looking for an excuse for a war that would allow it to dominate Europe.

　　德国一直伺机寻找借口发动战争欲征服欧洲，是百年前那场大灾难的助推手。

　　Yet complacency was also to blame.

　　然而他国的骄傲自满也难辞其咎。

　　Too many people, inLondon,Parisand elsewhere, believed that because Britainand Germanywere each other's biggest trading partners after America and there was therefore no economic logic¹³ behind the conflict, war would not happen.

　　不论是在伦敦、巴黎还是其它地方，有太多人认为英德两国互为仅次于美国的第二大贸易合作伙伴，也就不会有经济方面的纠纷，战争也就不会爆发。

　　As Keynes put it, The projects and politics of militarism and imperialism¹⁴, of racial and cultural rivalries¹⁵, of monopolies, restrictions¹⁶ and exclusion¹⁷, which were to play the serpent to this paradise, were little more than the amusements of…daily newspaper.

　　正如凯恩斯所言，军国主义和帝国主义，种族和文化对抗，贸易垄断、限制和排外等种种计划和政策正如失乐园的撒旦化身大蛇一样，然而在伦敦人看来，不过是日报上的娱乐新闻罢了。

　　Playing your role

　　演好角色

　　Humanity can learn from its mistakes, as shown by the response to the economic crisis, which was shaped by a determination to avoid the mistakes that led to the Depression.

　　从经济危机的应对便可看出，人类能从错误中吸取教训，尤其当人们下定决心不再重蹈经济大萧条的覆辙时。

　　The memory of the horrors unleashed¹⁸ a century ago makes leaders less likely to stumble into war today.

　　回忆起百年前这场恐怕的战争，各国便不太可能再度卷入战争。

　　So does the explosive power of a modern conflagration¹⁹: the threat of a nuclear holocaust²⁰ is a powerful brake on the reckless escalation²¹ that dispatched a generation of young men into the trenches²².

　　同样，想到现代冲突带来的爆炸威力：核毁灭的威胁有力的刹住了不顾后果的冲突升级，新一代年轻男子也就无需匍匐战壕了。

　　Yet the parallels remain troubling.

　　然而当今世界与一战的诸多相似之处，仍令人担忧。

　　The United StatesisBritain, the superpower on the wane²³, unable to guarantee global security.

　　现在的美国类似当时的英国，同是月满正亏的超级大国，同样无法保证全球安全。

　　Its main trading partner,China, plays the part of Germany, a new economic power bristling²⁴ with nationalist indignation and building up its armed forces rapidly.

　　中国，美国最主要的贸易伙伴，则类似当时的德国，同为新兴经济力量，同样充斥着愤懑的民族主义者，同样在迅速地构建军事力量。

　　Modern Japan is France, an ally of the retreating hegemon and a declining regional power.

　　日本就如当时的法国，同为衰退霸权国的同盟者，在地区的影响力同样下降。

　　The parallels are not exact—China lacks the Kaiser's territorial²⁵ ambitions and America's defence budget is far more impressive than imperial Britain's—but they are close enough for the world to be on its guard.

　　不过，并无完全相同，中国缺少德国扩张的野心，美国的国防预算也远强于那时的英帝国。然而，这种高度相似已足以令世界提高警惕。

　　Which, by and large, it is not.

　　但总体上并未引起世界各国的重视。

　　The most troubling similarity between 1914 and now is complacency.

　　自满才是1914年与当今世界最令人担忧的相似点。

　　Business people today are like businesspeople then: too busy making money to notice the serpents flickering²⁶ at the bottom of their trading screens.

　　商人还像那时的的商人：忙着挣钱，对电子交易屏下若隐若现的撒旦毒蛇浑然不知。

　　Politicians are playing with nationalism just as they did 100 years ago.

　　政客也还像百年前的政客那样，耍弄老一套民族主义。

　　India may next year elect Narendra Modi, a Hindu nationalist who refuses to atone²⁷ for a pogrom against Muslims in the state he runs and who would have his finger on the button of a potential nuclear conflict with his Muslim neighbours in Pakistan.

　　明年印度总统大选，纳伦德拉?莫迪或当选，作为一名印度教民族主义者，他拒绝弥补在他管辖的州内发生的屠杀穆斯林的行为；他一旦上台，有可能触发与穆斯林领邦巴基斯坦潜在的核冲突。

　　Vladimir Putin has been content to watch Syria rip itself apart.

　　叙利亚四分五裂，俄罗斯已表现出渔翁旁观之态。

　　And the European Union, which came together in reaction to the bloodshed of the 20th century, is looking more fractious and riven by incipient²⁸ nationalism than at any point since its formation.

　　而欧盟，在20世纪为抵制杀戮而结成联盟，如今民族主义抬头，欧盟呈现出自成立以来最为分裂的状态，内部也极易起冲突。

　　I have drunk and seen the spider

　　酒醉蛛现

　　Two precautions would help prevent any of these flashpoints sparking a conflagration.

　　为防星星之火燎原，有两种预防措施。

　　One is a system for minimising the threat from potential dangers.

　　其一，构建安全体系，将潜在危险降到最低。

　　Nobody is quite clear what will happen when North Koreaimplodes, but America and Chinaneed to plan ahead if they are to safeguard its nuclear programme without antagonising each other.

　　一旦朝鲜内战爆发，谁也无法预料会发生什么，但中美两国必须未雨绸缪，届时才能既稳住朝鲜核项目，又不致引起敌对。

　　Eventually, somebody is bound to crash into somebody else—and there is as yet no system for dealing²⁹ with it.

　　最终，定有迎头相撞的时候，而目前却还没有应对体系。

　　A code of maritime³⁰ conduct for the area is needed.

　　因此，这个地区还需要一套海洋行为准则。

　　The second precaution that would make the world safer is a more active American foreign policy.

　　促进世界安全的第二个预防措施则需要美国采取更积极的外交政策。

　　Despite forging an interim³¹ nuclear agreement with Iran, Barack Obama has pulled back in the Middle East—witness his unwillingness³² to use force in Syria.

　　尽管同伊朗签订了临时核协议，奥巴马已从中东地区事务中抽手，他不愿对叙利亚动武即是例证。

　　He has also done little to bring the new emerging giants—India,Indonesia,Braziland, above all,China—into the global system.

　　此外，印度、印尼、巴西尤其是中国等新型大国加入全球体系，美国贡献甚微。

　　This betrays both a lack of ambition and an ignorance of history.

　　这一切都透露出：奥巴马历史缺乏，雄心不足。

　　Thanks to its military, economic and soft power,Americais still indispensable, particularly in dealing with threats like climate change and terror, which cross borders.

　　多亏军事、经济和软实力依旧强大，美国仍是必不可少的角色，尤其在应对全球气候变化和恐怖主义上。

　　But unlessAmericabehaves as a leader and the guarantor of the world order, it will be inviting³³ regional powers to test their strength by bullying³⁴ neighbouring countries.

　　但只有当美国扮演好领导者和世界秩序维护者的角色，其他地区大国才不会为试实力欺辱邻国。

　　The chances are that none of the world's present dangers will lead to anything that compares to the horrors of 1914.

　　也许当今世界的各种威胁还不致造成1914年那样可怕的战争。

　　Madness, whether motivated by race, religion or tribe, usually gives ground to rational self-interest. But when it triumphs, it leads to carnage, so to assume that reason will prevail is to be culpably³⁵ complacent³⁶.

　　无论是种族、宗教还是部落驱动的疯狂行为，通常都会向理性的自身利益考量让步。一旦疯狂占据上风，屠杀就难以避免，因此假定理智永远会战胜疯狂的自满，本应受责。

　　That is the lesson of a century ago.

　　这就是我们应吸取的一战教训。

　　1.lead to 通向；导致

　　That can lead to serious consequences.

　　这会导致严重的后果。

　　All these ideologies³⁷ lead to repression³⁸.

　　所有这些思想最终都导致镇压。

　　2.look forward to 期望，盼望；瞩望

　　I think you should look forward to it.

　　我认为你应该期待它的到来。

　　We look forward to hearing from you soon.

　　我们盼望着不久能听到您的回音。

　　3.lay out 展示；安排；陈设

　　Maxwell listened closely as Johnson laid out his plan.

　　马克斯韦尔仔细听着约翰逊讲解其计划。

　　Cuomo laid it out in simple language.

　　科莫用简单的语言作了解释。

　　4.Great Depression 大萧条

　　Should president obama have reinforced the great depression story?

　　奥巴马总统应该强调大萧条的故事吗？

　　It is touted³⁹ as the biggest overhaul⁴⁰ of american finance since the great depression.

　　此次审查被捧为美国自大萧条以来规模最大的金融改革。

1 entirely   

ad.全部地，完整地；完全地，彻底地

参考例句：

• The fire was entirely caused by their neglect of duty. 那场火灾完全是由于他们失职而引起的。
• His life was entirely given up to the educational work. 他的一生统统献给了教育工作。

2 scraps   

油渣

参考例句：

• Don't litter up the floor with scraps of paper. 不要在地板上乱扔纸屑。
• A patchwork quilt is a good way of using up scraps of material. 做杂拼花布棉被是利用零碎布料的好办法。

3 calamity   

n.灾害，祸患，不幸事件

参考例句：

• Even a greater natural calamity cannot daunt us. 再大的自然灾害也压不垮我们。
• The attack on Pearl Harbor was a crushing calamity.偷袭珍珠港(对美军来说)是一场毁灭性的灾难。

4 continental   

adj.大陆的，大陆性的，欧洲大陆的

参考例句：

• A continental climate is different from an insular one.大陆性气候不同于岛屿气候。
• The most ancient parts of the continental crust are 4000 million years old.大陆地壳最古老的部分有40亿年历史。

5 steamship   

n.汽船，轮船

参考例句：

• The return may be made on the same steamship.可乘同一艘汽船当天回来。
• It was so foggy that the steamship almost ran down a small boat leaving the port.雾很大，汽艇差点把一只正在离港的小船撞沉。

6 sipping   

v.小口喝，呷，抿( sip的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• She sat in the sun, idly sipping a cool drink. 她坐在阳光下懒洋洋地抿着冷饮。
• She sat there, sipping at her tea. 她坐在那儿抿着茶。

7 futile   

adj.无效的，无用的，无希望的

参考例句：

• They were killed,to the last man,in a futile attack.因为进攻失败，他们全部被杀，无一幸免。
• Their efforts to revive him were futile.他们对他抢救无效。

8 embroiled   

adj.卷入的；纠缠不清的

参考例句：

• He became embroiled in a dispute with his neighbours. 他与邻居们发生了争执。
• John and Peter were quarrelling, but Mary refused to get embroiled. 约翰和彼得在争吵，但玛丽不愿卷入。 来自《简明英汉词典》

9 Soviet   

adj.苏联的，苏维埃的；n.苏维埃

参考例句：

• Zhukov was a marshal of the former Soviet Union.朱可夫是前苏联的一位元帅。
• Germany began to attack the Soviet Union in 1941.德国在1941年开始进攻苏联。

10 brutality   

n.野蛮的行为，残忍，野蛮

参考例句：

• The brutality of the crime has appalled the public. 罪行之残暴使公众大为震惊。
• a general who was infamous for his brutality 因残忍而恶名昭彰的将军

11 slaughtering   

v.屠杀，杀戮，屠宰( slaughter的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• The Revolutionary Tribunal went to work, and a steady slaughtering began. 革命法庭投入工作，持续不断的大屠杀开始了。 来自英汉非文学 - 历史
• \"Isn't it terrific slaughtering pigs? “宰猪的！ 来自汉英文学 - 中国现代小说

12 catastrophe   

n.大灾难，大祸

参考例句：

• I owe it to you that I survived the catastrophe.亏得你我才大难不死。
• This is a catastrophe beyond human control.这是一场人类无法控制的灾难。

13 logic   

n.逻辑(学)；逻辑性

参考例句：

• What sort of logic is that?这是什么逻辑？
• I don't follow the logic of your argument.我不明白你的论点逻辑性何在。

14 imperialism   

n.帝国主义，帝国主义政策

参考例句：

• They held the imperialism in contempt.他们鄙视帝国主义。
• Imperialism has not been able to subjugate China.帝国主义不能征服中国。

15 rivalries   

n.敌对，竞争，对抗( rivalry的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The new government was torn by rivalries. 新政府由于各派对立而四分五裂。 来自辞典例句
• Rivalries could bring about pain and hatred or give rise to fighting. 竞争会带来痛苦、仇恨，或者引起争斗。 来自互联网

16 restrictions   

约束( restriction的名词复数 )； 管制； 制约因素； 带限制性的条件（或规则）

参考例句：

• I found the restrictions irksome. 我对那些限制感到很烦。
• a snaggle of restrictions 杂乱无章的种种限制

17 exclusion   

n.拒绝，排除，排斥，远足，远途旅行

参考例句：

• Don't revise a few topics to the exclusion of all others.不要修改少数论题以致排除所有其他的。
• He plays golf to the exclusion of all other sports.他专打高尔夫球，其他运动一概不参加。

18 unleashed   

v.把（感情、力量等）释放出来，发泄( unleash的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The government's proposals unleashed a storm of protest in the press. 政府的提案引发了新闻界的抗议浪潮。
• The full force of his rage was unleashed against me. 他把所有的怒气都发泄在我身上。 来自《简明英汉词典》

19 conflagration   

n.建筑物或森林大火

参考例句：

• A conflagration in 1947 reduced 90 percent of the houses to ashes.1947年的一场大火，使90%的房屋化为灰烬。
• The light of that conflagration will fade away.这熊熊烈火会渐渐熄灭。

20 holocaust   

n.大破坏；大屠杀

参考例句：

• The Auschwitz concentration camp always remind the world of the holocaust.奥辛威茨集中营总是让世人想起大屠杀。
• Ahmadinejad is denying the holocaust because he's as brutal as Hitler was.内贾德否认大屠杀，因为他像希特勒一样残忍。

21 escalation   

n.扩大，增加

参考例句：

• The threat of nuclear escalation remains. 核升级的威胁仍旧存在。 来自辞典例句
• Escalation is thus an aspect of deterrence and of crisis management. 因此逐步升级是威慑和危机处理的一个方面。 来自辞典例句

22 trenches   

深沟，地沟( trench的名词复数 )； 战壕

参考例句：

• life in the trenches 第一次世界大战期间的战壕生活
• The troops stormed the enemy's trenches and fanned out across the fields. 部队猛攻敌人的战壕，并在田野上呈扇形散开。

23 wane   

n.衰微，亏缺，变弱；v.变小，亏缺，呈下弦

参考例句：

• The moon is on the wane.月亮渐亏。
• Her enthusiasm for him was beginning to wane.她对他的热情在开始减退。

24 bristling   

a.竖立的

参考例句：

• "Don't you question Miz Wilkes' word,'said Archie, his beard bristling. "威尔克斯太太的话，你就不必怀疑了。 "阿尔奇说。他的胡子也翘了起来。
• You were bristling just now. 你刚才在发毛。

25 territorial   

adj.领土的，领地的

参考例句：

• The country is fighting to preserve its territorial integrity.该国在为保持领土的完整而进行斗争。
• They were not allowed to fish in our territorial waters.不允许他们在我国领海捕鱼。

26 flickering   

adj.闪烁的，摇曳的，一闪一闪的

参考例句：

• The crisp autumn wind is flickering away. 清爽的秋风正在吹拂。
• The lights keep flickering. 灯光忽明忽暗。

27 atone   

v.赎罪，补偿

参考例句：

• He promised to atone for his crime.他承诺要赎自己的罪。
• Blood must atone for blood.血债要用血来还。

28 incipient   

adj.起初的，发端的，初期的

参考例句：

• The anxiety has been sharpened by the incipient mining boom.采矿业初期的蓬勃发展加剧了这种担忧。
• What we see then is an incipient global inflation.因此，我们看到的是初期阶段的全球通胀.

29 dealing   

n.经商方法，待人态度

参考例句：

• This store has an excellent reputation for fair dealing.该商店因买卖公道而享有极高的声誉。
• His fair dealing earned our confidence.他的诚实的行为获得我们的信任。

30 maritime   

adj.海的，海事的，航海的，近海的，沿海的

参考例句：

• Many maritime people are fishermen.许多居于海滨的人是渔夫。
• The temperature change in winter is less in maritime areas.冬季沿海的温差较小。

31 interim   

adj.暂时的，临时的；n.间歇，过渡期间

参考例句：

• The government is taking interim measures to help those in immediate need.政府正在采取临时措施帮助那些有立即需要的人。
• It may turn out to be an interim technology.这可能只是个过渡技术。

32 unwillingness   

n. 不愿意，不情愿

参考例句：

• Her unwillingness to answer questions undermined the strength of her position. 她不愿回答问题，这不利于她所处的形势。
• His apparent unwillingness would disappear if we paid him enough. 如果我们付足了钱，他露出的那副不乐意的神情就会消失。

33 inviting   

adj.诱人的，引人注目的

参考例句：

• An inviting smell of coffee wafted into the room.一股诱人的咖啡香味飘进了房间。
• The kitchen smelled warm and inviting and blessedly familiar.这间厨房的味道温暖诱人，使人感到亲切温馨。

34 bullying   

v.恐吓，威逼( bully的现在分词 )；豪；跋扈

参考例句：

• Many cases of bullying go unreported . 很多恐吓案件都没有人告发。
• All cases of bullying will be severely dealt with. 所有以大欺小的情况都将受到严肃处理。 来自《简明英汉词典》

35 culpably   

adv.该罚地，可恶地

参考例句：

36 complacent   

adj.自满的；自鸣得意的

参考例句：

• We must not become complacent the moment we have some success.我们决不能一见成绩就自满起来。
• She was complacent about her achievements.她对自己的成绩沾沾自喜。

37 ideologies   

n.思想（体系）( ideology的名词复数 )；思想意识；意识形态；观念形态

参考例句：

• There is no fundamental diversity between the two ideologies. 这两种思想意识之间并没有根本的分歧。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Radical ideologies require to contrast to their own goodness the wickedness of some other system. 凡是过激的意识形态，都需要有另外一个丑恶的制度作对比，才能衬托出自己的善良。 来自辞典例句

38 repression   

n.镇压，抑制，抑压

参考例句：

• The repression of your true feelings is harmful to your health.压抑你的真实感情有害健康。
• This touched off a new storm against violent repression.这引起了反对暴力镇压的新风暴。

39 touted   

v.兜售( tout的过去式和过去分词 )；招揽；侦查；探听赛马情报

参考例句：

• She's being touted as the next leader of the party. 她被吹捧为该党的下一任领导人。
• People said that he touted for his mother and sister. 据说，他给母亲和姐姐拉生意。 来自辞典例句

40 overhaul   

v./n.大修，仔细检查

参考例句：

• Master Worker Wang is responsible for the overhaul of this grinder.王师傅主修这台磨床。
• It is generally appreciated that the rail network needs a complete overhaul.众所周知，铁路系统需要大检修。