经济学人:墨西哥崛起 或成中国未来主要竞争对手(1)

 　　Special Report

　　特别报道

　　From darkness, dawn

　　冲破黑暗，走向黎明

　　After years of underachievement and rising violence, Mexico is at last beginning to realise its potential, says Tom Wainwright

　　Tom Wainwright说道经过长年停滞和内乱，墨西哥终于迎来曙光

　　The Apocalypse was on its way, and it would begin in Mexico. Where elsen When archaeologists dug up Mayan calendars that ominously¹ seemed to run out in the final days of 2012, some doomsayers predicted the end of the world. To many Mexicans it seemed like just another example of their country’s unending run of bad luck. The steepest recession on the American mainland, a plague of H1N1 swine flu and a deepening war against organised crime had made the preceding few years fairly grim. In 2009 the Pentagon had given warning that Mexico could become a “failed state”. Armageddon would be the icing on the cake.

　　《圣经·启示录》中的预言正在实现，而首当其冲的就是墨西哥。舍此其谁？考古学家挖掘出的玛雅日历似乎到2012年末为止，这一凶兆为部分末日论者所用，预言为世界末日。而众多墨西哥人看来，这不过是他们无限厄运的另一实例而已。除了美洲大陆上经济最为不佳之外，墨西哥还遭受H1N1猪流感和缉毒战争的洗礼，其前途一片黯淡。2009年，美国五角大楼（Pentagon）警示称，墨西哥可能成为“失败国家”。《启示录》中的“大审判”（Armageddon）不过给其“锦上添花”罢了。

　　But it turns out that the Mayan glyphs were misunderstood. The men with magnifying glasses now say that the world is not about to end—in fact, it seems that the Mayans were predicting something more like a renewal² or a fresh start. Could the same be true of Mexicon?

　　但事实上，人们误解了玛雅石雕上的日历。现在，石雕上手握圣杯的男子已不再表示终结。相反，玛雅人的预示似乎更接近重生或新生。而同样的事能在墨西哥成真吗？

　　This special report will argue that there is a good chance of it. Some awful years are giving way to what, if managed properly, could be a prosperous period for Latin America’s second-largest economy. Big, irreversible trends, from a falling birth rate at home to rising wages in China, are starting to move in Mexico’s favour. At the same time the country’s leaders are at last starting to tackle some of the home-grown problems that have held it back.

　　本篇特别报道支持这一说法。惨淡的岁月已然过去。只要管理得当，在今后的日子里，这一拉美第二经济体将迎来繁荣昌盛。不可阻挡的时代潮流，已从劳动减少、成本上涨的中国，转而眷顾起了墨西哥。与此同时，墨西哥的政府高官最终开始处理个别阻碍其发展的国内问题。

　　Many of the things that the world thinks it knows about Mexico are no longer true. A serially³ underachieving economy, repeatedly trumped⁴ by dynamic Braziln Mexico outpaced Brazil last year and will grow twice as fast this year. Out-of-control population growth and an endless exodus⁵ to the northn Net emigration is down to zero, if not negative, and the fertility rate will soon be lower than that of the United States. Grinding povertyn Yes, but alleviated⁶ by services such as universal free health care. A raging drug warn The failure of rich countries’ anti-drugs policies means that organised crime will not go away. But Mexico’s murder rate is now falling, albeit⁷ slowly, for the first time in five years.

　　世人所熟知的那个“墨西哥”已不复存在。那个“经济连年停滞的”、“总被势头较好的巴西踩在脚下的”墨西哥已不复存在——墨西哥的经济增速已于去年超过巴西，今年有望翻其一番；那个“人口增长失控，大量人群北迁”的墨西哥也已不复存在——墨西哥的净移民数（出境移民减去入境移民的结果，译者注）不计负数已减少至零，其出生率也即将低于美国。至于“百姓贫穷不堪”确实不错，但无偿公共卫生等公共服务已加以缓和。而墨西哥“国内缉毒战争不断”也确非虚言。发达国家在反毒品政策上都比较失败，这导致毒枭集团始终存在。但墨西哥国内的谋杀率在近五年来首次下降（尽管下降速度不大）。

　　A vast country with deeply ingrained problems and unreformed corners, Mexico could yet squander⁸ the opportunities that are coming its way. But there are signs that it is beginning to realise its potential. With luck, the dire⁹ predictions made by the Pentagon and others may turn out to be as reliable as a misread Mayan calendar.

　　由于深陷国内各种问题以及改革不力的窘境，墨西哥也有可能错失眼前的机遇。但是种种迹象表明，其潜力已被开发。若一切顺利，五角大楼等等关于墨西哥的消极预言可能也终将和遭误解的玛雅日历那般不靠谱。

　　Preparing to lead Mexico into this brightening future is the party most associated with its past. The Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) ran Mexico without interruption for most of the 20th century, silencing opposition¹⁰ through a mixture of co-option, corruption¹¹ and occasional violence. Only in 2000 did it give up its grip on power to the conservative National Action Party (PAN), which fielded two presidents in succession: Vicente Fox, a former executive at Coca-Cola, and Felipe Calderon, a lawyer whose father was a founding member of the party. On December 1st Mr Calderon will hand over the presidency¹² to the PRI’s Enrique Pena Nieto, who won a clear election victory on July 1st. A handsome 46-year-old with a gift for communication, Mr Pena claims to be the opposite of the crooked¹³ party men who ran the country in its pre-democratic days. But will the change be more than superficialn？

　　带领墨西哥走向光明的重任落在其历史悠久的党派上。“革命制度党”（PRI）就曾领导了墨西哥不间断地度过20世纪的大半，期间该党通过游说拉拢、贪污行贿、时而付诸暴力的手段，让反对派偃旗息鼓。直到2000年，该党才选择退位，由保守派的“国家行动党”（PAN）当政，期间先后轮替了两位总统：曾任可口可乐（Coca-Cola）首席执行的福克斯（Vicente Fox）和担任律师的国家行动党元老子弟卡尔德隆（Felipe Calderon）。今年12月1日，卡尔德隆总统即将让位给革命制度党的裴纳尼托（Enrique Pena Nieto），后者于今年6月1日的选举中大获全胜。46岁的裴纳尼托外表俊朗、善于演讲。他自称将与那些“墨西哥前民主时期”当政的狡猾政客背道而驰。但他所宣称的改革究竟能否触及核心？

　　Mr Pena says his priority is to make the economy grow faster in order to reduce poverty. Nearly half the population are poor, many of them in the south (see map). To achieve more rapid growth he will need to introduce a series of big economic reforms, some of which Mr Calderon attempted during his presidency, only to see them get stuck in Mexico’s cantankerous¹⁴ Congress.

　　裴纳尼托表示，他将优先推进经济增长，以减少贫困。墨西哥约半数人口处于贫穷状态，大部分集中在南部（见地图）。为此，裴纳尼托需引入一系列经济改革，这些措施在卡尔德隆总统执政期间也曾受到推行，但却堵在争论不休的国会之中。翻译：沈骜

　　1.run out of 用完；耗尽

　　例句:The aircraft will run out of fuel in another hour.

　　飞机再过一小时燃料就将用完。

　　2.turns out 证明是；结果是

　　例句:The speed of light turns out to be nature's speed limit.

　　光速原来是自然界的速度极限。

　　3.in order to 为了

　　例句:Economize¹⁵ in order to make one's money spin out until next payday.

　　节省花钱以维持到下一次发薪。

　　4.economic reform 经济改革

　　例句:China's tariff¹⁶ policy was to promote economic reform and opening of the economy.

　　中国的关税政策的目的是促进经济改革和经济开放。

1 ominously   

adv.恶兆地，不吉利地；预示地

参考例句：

• The wheels scooped up stones which hammered ominously under the car. 车轮搅起的石块，在车身下发出不吉祥的锤击声。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Mammy shook her head ominously. 嬷嬷不祥地摇着头。 来自飘（部分）

2 renewal   

adj.(契约)延期，续订，更新，复活，重来

参考例句：

• Her contract is coming up for renewal in the autumn.她的合同秋天就应该续签了。
• Easter eggs symbolize the renewal of life.复活蛋象征新生。

3 serially   

adv.连续地，连续刊载地

参考例句：

• A method of device interconnection for determining interruptpriority by connecting the interrupt sources serially. 设备互连的一种方式，通过与中断源串连的顺序确定设备的中断优先级。 来自辞典例句
• BATCH PROCESSING:Execution of programs serially with no interactive processing. 批处理：程序执行是连续的，无交互式处理。 来自互联网

4 trumped   

v.（牌戏）出王牌赢（一牌或一墩）( trump的过去分词 )；吹号公告，吹号庆祝；吹喇叭；捏造

参考例句：

• That woman trumped up various baseless charges against him. 那个女人捏造种种毫无根据的罪名指控他。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Several of his colleagues trumped up a complaint to get him removed from the job. 他的几位同事诬告他，使他丟掉了工作。 来自《简明英汉词典》

5 exodus   

v.大批离去，成群外出

参考例句：

• The medical system is facing collapse because of an exodus of doctors.由于医生大批离去，医疗系统面临崩溃。
• Man's great challenge at this moment is to prevent his exodus from this planet.人在当前所遇到的最大挑战，就是要防止人从这个星球上消失。

6 alleviated   

减轻，缓解，缓和( alleviate的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• It is always completely alleviated by total gastrectomy. 全胃切除永远完全缓解症状。
• Toxicity problem in manufacturing and storage might be alleviated by coating beryllium with aluminum. 但如果用铝包覆铍，则可避免加工过程中及储存期间的中毒问题。

7 albeit   

conj.即使；纵使；虽然

参考例句：

• Albeit fictional,she seemed to have resolved the problem.虽然是虚构的，但是在她看来好象是解决了问题。
• Albeit he has failed twice,he is not discouraged.虽然失败了两次，但他并没有气馁。

8 squander   

v.浪费，挥霍

参考例句：

• Don't squander your time in reading those dime novels.不要把你的时间浪费在读那些胡编乱造的廉价小说上。
• Every chance is precious，so don't squander any chance away!每次机会都很宝贵，所以不要将任何一个白白放走。

9 dire   

adj.可怕的，悲惨的，阴惨的，极端的

参考例句：

• There were dire warnings about the dangers of watching too much TV.曾经有人就看电视太多的危害性提出严重警告。
• We were indeed in dire straits.But we pulled through.那时我们的困难真是大极了，但是我们渡过了困难。

10 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

11 corruption   

n.腐败，堕落，贪污

参考例句：

• The people asked the government to hit out against corruption and theft.人民要求政府严惩贪污盗窃。
• The old man reviled against corruption.那老人痛斥了贪污舞弊。

12 presidency   

n.总统(校长，总经理)的职位(任期)

参考例句：

• Roosevelt was elected four times to the presidency of the United States.罗斯福连续当选四届美国总统。
• Two candidates are emerging as contestants for the presidency.两位候选人最终成为总统职位竞争者。

13 crooked   

adj.弯曲的；不诚实的，狡猾的，不正当的

参考例句：

• He crooked a finger to tell us to go over to him.他弯了弯手指，示意我们到他那儿去。
• You have to drive slowly on these crooked country roads.在这些弯弯曲曲的乡间小路上你得慢慢开车。

14 cantankerous   

adj.爱争吵的，脾气不好的

参考例句：

• He met a crabbed,cantankerous director.他碰上了一位坏脾气、爱争吵的主管。
• The cantankerous bus driver rouse on the children for singing.那个坏脾气的公共汽车司机因为孩子们唱歌而骂他们。

15 economize   

v.节约，节省

参考例句：

• We're going to have to economize from now on. 从现在开始，我们不得不节约开支。
• We have to economize on water during the dry season. 我们在旱季不得不节约用水。

16 tariff   

n.关税，税率；(旅馆、饭店等)价目表，收费表

参考例句：

• There is a very high tariff on jewelry.宝石类的关税率很高。
• The government is going to lower the tariff on importing cars.政府打算降低进口汽车的关税。