2022年经济学人 各经济体之间的共识越来越一致

Finance & economics

财经版块

Economics

经济

The new consensus¹

新的共识

A new study finds that economies are agreeing with each other more

一项新的研究发现，各经济体之间的共识越来越一致

Observers have long poked² fun at the inability of the economics profession to make up its mind.

长期以来，观察家们一直嘲笑经济学专家无法做出决定。

"If parliament were to ask six economists³ for an opinion, seven would come back," runs one version of an old joke.

“如果议会征求六位经济学家的意见，会返回七种意见，”一个古老笑话这样写道。

Yet the gibes⁴ may be losing their force.

然而，这些嘲笑可能正在失去效力。

A new paper, by Doris Geide-Stevenson and Alvaro La Parra Perez of Weber State University, finds that economists are agreeing with each other more on a number of policy-related questions.

韦伯州立大学的Doris Geide-Stevenson和Alvaro La Parra Perez的一篇新论文中指出，经济学家在一些与政策相关的问题上更加一致。

The paper publishes the results of the latest wave of a survey of economists that has been conducted roughly once a decade since 1976 (though the results of the first wave are not entirely⁵ comparable with later ones).

这篇论文公布了最新一波经济学家调查的结果，该调查自1976年以来大约每十年进行一次（尽管第一波调查的结果完全比不上后面的调查结果）。

Members of the American Economic Association were asked whether they agreed with a number of propositions, ranging from the economic impact of minimum-wage increases to the desirability of universal health insurance.

美国经济协会成员被问及是否同意一些主张，包含提高最低工资对经济的影响，以及全民医疗保险的可取性等。

Based on the frequency of responses, the researchers devised an index that captured the degree of consensus on each question.

根据回答的频率，研究人员设计了一个指数来捕捉每个问题的共识程度。

The results suggest that the extent of consensus has risen significantly.

结果表明，共识的程度明显上升。

Economists were in strong agreement on about a third of the propositions in the latest wave, compared with around 15% in 2011 and less than 10% in 1990.

经济学家对最新一轮经济浪潮中约三分之一的主张持强烈一致意见，而2011年这一比例约为15%，1990年则不到10%。

Respondents were more united on their diagnosis⁶ of economic problems.

受访者对经济问题的诊断更加一致。

And, strikingly, more of them were convinced of the need for muscular policy.

而且，令人吃惊的是，他们中更多的人相信有必要采取强硬的政策。

Inequality was a growing concern.

不平等问题日益引起关注。

The share of respondents who wholly or somewhat agreed that the distribution of income in America should be more equal rose from 68% in 2000 to 86% in 2020-21.

完全或部分同意美国收入分配应该更加平等的受访者比例从2000年的68%上升到2020-21年的86%。

Fully⁷ 85% thought corporate⁸ power was too concentrated.

足足有85%的人认为公司权力过于集中。

Another worry was climate change, which most agreed posed a big risk to the economy.

另一个令人担忧的问题是气候变化，大多数人都认为这对经济构成了很大的威胁。

(Both questions were asked for the first time in the latest wave.)

（这两个问题都是在最新一波中首次提出的。）

Unsurprisingly, given their views on market power, respondents' support for a vigorous use of antitrust policy has increased markedly over the past two decades.

关于受访者对市场力量的看法完全在意料之中，他们对大力使用反垄断政策的支持在过去20年里显著增加。

Another notable change was in the enthusiasm for fiscal⁹ activism.

另一个值得注意的变化是对财政激进主义的热情。

More economists thought that the Federal Reserve alone could not manage the business cycle—perhaps consistent with the decline in its policy rate towards zero—and were keener on a bigger role for government.

更多的经济学家认为，仅靠美联储无法管理商业周期——或许与其政策利率降至零的趋势一致——他们更希望让政府发挥更大的作用。

More of them also agreed that fiscal policy could have important economic effects, both during downturns and over the long term.

他们中更多的人还认为，无论是在经济低迷时期还是在长期看来，财政政策都可能产生重要的经济影响。

The dismal¹⁰ science has not become entirely harmonious¹¹, though.

然而，这门沉闷的科学并没有变得完全和谐。

Economists were slightly more split on the consequences of lowering income and capital-gains taxes in the latest wave, with roughly half of respondents agreeing with the propositions put to them by the researchers, and the rest disagreeing.

经济学家对最近一轮减税浪潮中降低所得税和资本利得税的后果，看法略有分歧，大约一半的受访者同意研究人员提出的主张，其余的人则不同意。

Enough room, still, for healthy debate.

不过，仍有足够的空间进行有益的辩论。

1 consensus   

n.(意见等的)一致，一致同意，共识

参考例句：

• Can we reach a consensus on this issue?我们能在这个问题上取得一致意见吗？
• What is the consensus of opinion at the afternoon meeting?下午会议上一致的意见是什么？

2 poked   

v.伸出( poke的过去式和过去分词 )；戳出；拨弄；与（某人）性交

参考例句：

• She poked him in the ribs with her elbow. 她用胳膊肘顶他的肋部。
• His elbow poked out through his torn shirt sleeve. 他的胳膊从衬衫的破袖子中露了出来。 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

4 gibes   

vi.嘲笑，嘲弄（gibe的第三人称单数形式）

参考例句：

• He smarted under the gibes of his fellows. 他因受同伴的嘲笑而苦恼。 来自辞典例句
• Don' t make gibes about her behavior. 别嘲笑她的行为。 来自辞典例句

5 entirely   

ad.全部地，完整地；完全地，彻底地

参考例句：

• The fire was entirely caused by their neglect of duty. 那场火灾完全是由于他们失职而引起的。
• His life was entirely given up to the educational work. 他的一生统统献给了教育工作。

6 diagnosis   

n.诊断，诊断结果，调查分析，判断

参考例句：

• His symptoms gave no obvious pointer to a possible diagnosis.他的症状无法作出明确的诊断。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做一次彻底的调查分析。

7 fully   

adv.完全地，全部地，彻底地；充分地

参考例句：

• The doctor asked me to breathe in,then to breathe out fully.医生让我先吸气，然后全部呼出。
• They soon became fully integrated into the local community.他们很快就完全融入了当地人的圈子。

8 corporate   

adj.共同的，全体的；公司的，企业的

参考例句：

• This is our corporate responsibility.这是我们共同的责任。
• His corporate's life will be as short as a rabbit's tail.他的公司的寿命是兔子尾巴长不了。

9 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

10 dismal   

adj.阴沉的，凄凉的，令人忧郁的，差劲的

参考例句：

• That is a rather dismal melody.那是一支相当忧郁的歌曲。
• My prospects of returning to a suitable job are dismal.我重新找到一个合适的工作岗位的希望很渺茫。

11 harmonious   

adj.和睦的，调和的，和谐的，协调的

参考例句：

• Their harmonious relationship resulted in part from their similar goals.他们关系融洽的部分原因是他们有着相似的目标。
• The room was painted in harmonious colors.房间油漆得色彩调和。