2022年经济学人 曾经仁慈的美联储现在似乎要报复市场（1）

搜索

复制

Finance & economics

财经板块

Buttonwood: Wake-up call

梧桐树：警钟

The once-benevolent Fed now looks vengeful for markets

曾经仁慈的美联储现在似乎要报复市场

When stocks boomed early in the pandemic, an internet meme captured the madness of the moment.

疫情初期股市大涨，一张网络表情包捕捉到了那一刻的疯狂。

On the left-hand side of the image, a worried man exclaims that simply creating money cannot save the economy; on the right, a man representing the Federal Reserve replies “Haha money printer go brrr” while cranking out dollars.

在图片的左边，一个忧心忡忡的人惊呼道，仅靠造钱并不能拯救经济；在右边，一名代表美联储的男子一边大量印钞，一边回答道：“哈哈，印钞机开动”。

Joseph Politano, author of Apricitas, an economics newsletter, recently tweaked the meme to better fit the present situation.

经济学时事通讯《Apritas》的作者约瑟夫·波利塔诺最近稍稍改动了这张图，使其更符合当前的形势。

On the left, the worried man laments¹ that excessive monetary² tightening³ is increasing the risk of a recession; to the right, the Fed representative retorts “Haha money vacuum go brrr”, while hoovering up dollars.

图片左边，那位忧心忡忡的人哀叹，过度的货币紧缩正在增加经济衰退的风险；右边，代表美联储的人一边吸走美元，一边回嘴：“哈哈，吸钞器开动。”

In more analytical⁴, if less humorous, terms, another way of framing this shift is to ask whether the Fed put has become a Fed call.

如果正经一点，从更具分析性的角度来看，另一种描述这种转变的方式是：问一问美联储的看跌期权是否已经变为美联储看涨期权。

The concept of a Fed put dates back to the era of Alan Greenspan, a former chairman of the central bank.

美联储看跌期权的概念可以追溯到美联储前主席艾伦·格林斯潘的时代。

Starting with the stockmarket crash in 1987 and continuing for more than three decades, the Fed earned a reputation for easing policy, notably⁵ by cutting interest rates, whenever share prices plunged⁶.

1987年股市崩盘后的30多年里，美联储以实施宽松政策而闻名，尤其是股价一暴跌就实施的降息政策。

To traders this looks a bit like a put option, a basic hedging tool that sets a price floor for investments.

对于交易员来说，这看起来有点像看跌期权，这是一种为投资设定价格下限的基本对冲工具。

A Fed call would imply just the opposite: namely, that the central bank is in effect capping the market (similar to traders who sell call options on their stock holdings).

美联储看涨期权正相反，意味着：央行实际上为市场价格设定上限(类似于交易员出售所持股票的看涨期权)。

Steve Englander of Standard Chartered, a bank, laid out this provocative⁷ idea in a recent note to clients: “The Fed may push back against equity⁸ market gains until it is comfortable that disinflation is a lock—in other words, [there is] a Fed call.”

渣打银行的史蒂夫·英格兰德在最近给客户的一份报告中阐述了这一引人深思的想法：“在美联储确信通货紧缩已成定局之前，它可能会一直打压市场收益--换句话说，美联储看涨期权已经到来。”

This argument may, at first glance, seem rather crude.

乍一看，这种说法可能显得有些不成熟。

The Fed has long denied that it targets asset prices in setting monetary policy.

长期以来，美联储一直否认其在制定货币政策时有意影响资产价格。

Narrowly, its denials are credible⁹.

它的否认勉强还算可信。

Central bankers look at oodles of data, from real-time growth figures to surveys of inflation expectations.

央行官员们要看大量数据，从实时增长数据到通胀预期调查的数据。

They cannot afford to be swayed by swings in stocks.

他们承受不起股市波动的影响。

Moreover, share prices reflect many factors ranging from the overall economic outlook to corporate¹⁰ idiosyncrasies.

此外，股价能反映许多因素，大到整体经济前景，小到企业特质。

Why would the Fed target something that is so volatile¹¹ and only partially¹² responsive to its actions?

股价波动如此之大，美联储针对股价采取的措施也并非全部有效，美联储为什么要影响股价呢？

1 laments   

n.悲恸，哀歌，挽歌( lament的名词复数 )v.（为…）哀悼，痛哭，悲伤( lament的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• In the poem he laments the destruction of the countryside. 在那首诗里他对乡村遭到的破坏流露出悲哀。
• In this book he laments the slight interest shown in his writings. 在该书中他慨叹人们对他的著作兴趣微弱。 来自辞典例句

2 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

3 tightening   

上紧，固定，紧密

参考例句：

• Make sure the washer is firmly seated before tightening the pipe. 旋紧水管之前，检查一下洗衣机是否已牢牢地固定在底座上了。
• It needs tightening up a little. 它还需要再收紧些。

4 analytical   

adj.分析的；用分析法的

参考例句：

• I have an analytical approach to every survey.对每项调查我都采用分析方法。
• As a result,analytical data obtained by analysts were often in disagreement.结果各个分析家所得的分析数据常常不一致。

5 notably   

adv.值得注意地，显著地，尤其地，特别地

参考例句：

• Many students were absent,notably the monitor.许多学生缺席，特别是连班长也没来。
• A notably short,silver-haired man,he plays basketball with his staff several times a week.他个子明显较为矮小，一头银发，每周都会和他的员工一起打几次篮球。

6 plunged   

v.颠簸( plunge的过去式和过去分词 )；暴跌；骤降；突降

参考例句：

• The train derailed and plunged into the river. 火车脱轨栽进了河里。
• She lost her balance and plunged 100 feet to her death. 她没有站稳，从100英尺的高处跌下摔死了。

7 provocative   

adj.挑衅的，煽动的，刺激的，挑逗的

参考例句：

• She wore a very provocative dress.她穿了一件非常性感的裙子。
• His provocative words only fueled the argument further.他的挑衅性讲话只能使争论进一步激化。

8 equity   

n.公正，公平，（无固定利息的）股票

参考例句：

• They shared the work of the house with equity.他们公平地分担家务。
• To capture his equity,Murphy must either sell or refinance.要获得资产净值，墨菲必须出售或者重新融资。

9 credible   

adj.可信任的，可靠的

参考例句：

• The news report is hardly credible.这则新闻报道令人难以置信。
• Is there a credible alternative to the nuclear deterrent?是否有可以取代核威慑力量的可靠办法？

10 corporate   

adj.共同的，全体的；公司的，企业的

参考例句：

• This is our corporate responsibility.这是我们共同的责任。
• His corporate's life will be as short as a rabbit's tail.他的公司的寿命是兔子尾巴长不了。

11 volatile   

adj.反复无常的，挥发性的，稍纵即逝的，脾气火爆的；n.挥发性物质

参考例句：

• With the markets being so volatile,investments are at great risk.由于市场那么变化不定，投资冒着很大的风险。
• His character was weak and volatile.他这个人意志薄弱，喜怒无常。

12 partially   

adv.部分地，从某些方面讲

参考例句：

• The door was partially concealed by the drapes.门有一部分被门帘遮住了。
• The police managed to restore calm and the curfew was partially lifted.警方设法恢复了平静，宵禁部分解除。