2022年经济学人 何时该相信直觉？（1）

Business

商业版块

Bartleby: When to trust your gut¹

巴托比：何时该相信直觉

Deliberation is not always the best option

深思熟虑并不总是最佳选项

Humans have been honed over millions of years of evolution to respond to certain situations without thinking too hard.

经过数百万年的进化，人类已经被磨练得可以在不费力思考的情况下对某些情况做出反应。

If your ancestors spotted² movement in the undergrowth, they would run first and grunt³ questions later.

我们的祖先发现灌木丛中有动静时，都会先跑起来，然后再咕哝着问问题。

At the same time, the capacity to analyse and to plan is part of what distinguishes people from other animals.

然而，人类与其他动物的一个区别就是，人类有分析和计划的能力。

The question of when to trust your gut and when to test your assumptions—whether to think fast or slow, in the language of Daniel Kahneman, a psychologist—matters in the office as much as it does in the savannah.

什么时候该相信直觉，什么时候该验证假设--用心理学家丹尼尔·卡内曼的话来说，是快思考还是慢思考--这个问题在职场上，和在大草原上一样重要。

Deliberative thinking is the hallmark of a well-managed workplace.

深思熟虑是工作场所管理有方的标志。

Strategic overhauls⁴ and budget discussions are built on rounds of meetings, memos⁵, formulas and presentations.

一轮轮会议、备忘录、方案和演示是进行战略改革和预算讨论的基础。

Processes are increasingly designed to stamp out instinctive⁶ responses.

为了杜绝本能反应，有越来越多流程被设计出来。

From blind screening of job applicants⁷ to using “red-teaming” techniques to pick apart a firm’s plans, rigour trumps⁸ reflex.

小到盲选求职者，大到使用“红队策略”来打磨公司的计划，严谨都胜过本能反应。

Yet instinct also has its place.

不过，本能也有用武之地。

Some decisions are more connected to emotional responses and inherently less tractable⁹ to analysis.

有些判断就更多用到情绪反应，本质上难以通过分析下决断。

Does a marketing¹⁰ campaign capture the essence of your company, say, or would this person work well with other people in a team?

比如，判断营销活动是否充分体现了公司的本质，或是看一个人能否与团队中的其他人合作良好？

In sticky customer-service situations, intuition is often a better guide to how to behave than a script.

在棘手的客户服务情况下，直觉往往比脚本更能指导如何行事。

Gut instincts can also be improved (call it “probiotic management”).

直觉能力也能够得到提高(可以称之为“益生菌管理”)。

Plenty of research has shown that intuition becomes more unerring with experience.

大量研究表明，随着经验的积累，直觉会变得更加准确。

In one well-known experiment, conducted in 2012, volunteers were asked to assess whether a selection of designer handbags were counterfeit¹¹ or real.

在2012年的一项著名实验中，志愿者被要求判断一些名牌手袋的真伪。

Some were instructed to operate on instinct and others to deliberate over their decision.

实验要求一些人凭直觉判断，其他人则要深思熟虑后再做决定。

Intuition worked better for those who owned at least three designer handbags; indeed, it outperformed analysis.

对于至少拥有三个名牌手袋的人来说，依照直觉判断的正确率更高；事实上，直觉比分析更准确。

The more expert you become, the better your instincts tend to be.

越专业，直觉往往就越准确。

However, the real reason to embrace fast thinking is that it is, well, fast.

但是，选择快思考的真正原因就是：快。

Instinctive decision-making is often the only way to get through the day.

依照本能做决策往往是熬过一天的唯一方法。

Researchers at Cornell University once estimated that people make over 200 decisions a day about food alone.

康奈尔大学的研究人员曾经估算出，人们每天光是思考吃什么就会做出200多个决定。

The workplace is nothing but a succession of choices, a few big and many small: what to prioritise, when to intervene, whom to avoid in the lifts and, now, where to work each day.

构成职场的只不过是一连串选择，几个重大的加上许多个微小的：优先考虑什么，何时干预，在电梯里避开谁，以及现如今对于工作地点的选择。

1 gut   

n.[pl.]胆量；内脏；adj.本能的；vt.取出内脏

参考例句：

• It is not always necessary to gut the fish prior to freezing.冷冻鱼之前并不总是需要先把内脏掏空。
• My immediate gut feeling was to refuse.我本能的直接反应是拒绝。

2 spotted   

adj.有斑点的，斑纹的，弄污了的

参考例句：

• The milkman selected the spotted cows,from among a herd of two hundred.牛奶商从一群200头牛中选出有斑点的牛。
• Sam's shop stocks short spotted socks.山姆的商店屯积了有斑点的短袜。

3 grunt   

v.嘟哝；作呼噜声；n.呼噜声，嘟哝

参考例句：

• He lifted the heavy suitcase with a grunt.他咕噜着把沉重的提箱拎了起来。
• I ask him what he think,but he just grunt.我问他在想什麽，他只哼了一声。

4 overhauls   

v.彻底检查( overhaul的第三人称单数 )；大修；赶上；超越

参考例句：

• The plant overhauls 8 locomotive, manufactures and repairs 100 train vehicles annually. 年机车解体大修8部，修、制各类型铁路车辆百余辆。 来自互联网
• The wind turbine generator overhauls what is the standard flow? 风机检修的的标准流程是什么？ 来自互联网

5 memos   

n.备忘录( memo的名词复数 )；（美）内部通知

参考例句：

• Big shots get their dander up and memos start flying. 大人物们怒火中烧，备忘录四下乱飞。 来自辞典例句
• There was a pile of mail, memos and telephone messages on his desk. 他的办公桌上堆满着信件、备忘录和电话通知。 来自辞典例句

6 instinctive   

adj.(出于)本能的；直觉的；(出于)天性的

参考例句：

• He tried to conceal his instinctive revulsion at the idea.他试图饰盖自己对这一想法本能的厌恶。
• Animals have an instinctive fear of fire.动物本能地怕火。

7 applicants   

申请人，求职人( applicant的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• There were over 500 applicants for the job. 有500多人申请这份工作。
• He was impressed by the high calibre of applicants for the job. 求职人员出色的能力给他留下了深刻印象。

8 trumps   

abbr.trumpets 喇叭；小号；喇叭形状的东西；喇叭筒v.（牌戏）出王牌赢（一牌或一墩）( trump的过去式 )；吹号公告，吹号庆祝；吹喇叭；捏造

参考例句：

• On the day of the match the team turned up trumps. 比赛那天该队出乎意料地获得胜利。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Every time John is late getting home he trumps up some new excuse. 每次约翰晚回家都会编造个新借口。 来自《简明英汉词典》

9 tractable   

adj.易驾驭的；温顺的

参考例句：

• He was always tractable and quiet.他总是温顺、恬静。
• Gold and silver are tractable metals.金和银是容易加工的金属。

10 marketing   

n.行销，在市场的买卖，买东西

参考例句：

• They are developing marketing network.他们正在发展销售网络。
• He often goes marketing.他经常去市场做生意。

11 counterfeit   

vt.伪造，仿造；adj.伪造的，假冒的

参考例句：

• It is a crime to counterfeit money.伪造货币是犯罪行为。
• The painting looked old but was a recent counterfeit.这幅画看上去年代久远，实际是最近的一幅赝品。