2022年经济学人 滞后带来的拖累（1）

Finance & economics

财经板块

Inflation: The drag from lags

通货膨胀：滞后带来的拖累

Rates are rising at unprecedented¹ speed.

利率正以前所未有的速度上升。

How long until they bite?

在它们产生严重影响之前，还有多长时间？

If you want to impress central bankers, inject “long and variable lags” into a conversation and heave a heavy sigh.

如果你想给央行官员留下深刻印象，那就在对话中提到“漫长而多变的滞后”，然后沉重地叹一口气。

The phrase, coined by Milton Friedman, a Nobel-prizewinning economist³, is sophisticated shorthand for the delayed and uncertain effects of monetary⁴ policy.

这个词由诺贝尔奖得主、经济学家米尔顿·弗里德曼首创，是对货币政策的延迟和不确定效应的复杂缩写。

Raising rates, as most central banks are now doing, should lead to slower growth and lower inflation.

大多数央行现在正在实施的加息，应该会导致经济增长放缓和通胀降低。

But it can take time for the full impact to be felt.

但要感受到加息的全面影响还需要时间。

Hence Friedman’s idea of a long lag.

因此，弗里德曼提出了长期滞后的观点。

The variability, meanwhile, refers to the lack of a predictable interval⁵ between raise and result.

同时，可变性指的是无法预测加息和结果之间的差距。

Lags present an acute challenge at the moment.

目前，滞后是一个严峻的挑战。

Tightening⁶ in the past few decades has been gradual, helping⁷ to mitigate⁸ uncertainty⁹.

过去几十年的紧缩措施一直是渐进的，有助于降低不确定性。

This time central banks are furiously ratcheting up rates.

但这一次，各国央行都在疯狂地加息。

The Federal Reserve is on course to raise them from a floor of 0% to 4% by the end of this year, its steepest tightening in four decades.

美联储正按计划在今年年底前将利率从0%提高到4%，这是40年来最大幅度的紧缩。

Economists¹⁰ including Ben Bernanke, a former chairman of the Fed and a new Nobel laureate, estimate lags between monetary policy and inflation can last as long as two years.

美联储前主席、新任诺贝尔奖得主本·伯南克等经济学家估计，货币政策与通胀之间的滞后可能长达两年之久。

The result is that America may be digesting the jumbo rate rises of the past few months well into 2024, by which time the economic picture will look different.

其结果是，美国过去几个月大幅加息的影响可能会持续到2024年，到那时，经济形势将会发生变化。

This is one reason why some economists are calling for central banks to switch to smaller rate rises, if any.

这就是一些经济学家呼吁各国央行如果要加息，就采取小幅加息的原因之一。

They want policymakers to survey the impact thus far in order to avoid needlessly adding to future pain.

他们希望政策制定者调查迄今为止加息的影响，以避免徒增未来的痛苦。

Yet the mere¹¹ existence of lags cannot be an argument for inaction.

然而，存在滞后这一点不能成为不作为的理由。

They are a known unknown.

滞后是我们已知会出现的未知数。

Their precise duration may be uncertain but the fact that there will be a delay is well understood.

滞后持续的确切时间可能不确定，但滞后一定会出现这一点是众所周知的。

Any decent model contains assumptions about this.

任何像样的经济模型都会预设滞后。

Fed officials expect to shift from raising to cutting rates in 2024 and 2025.

美联储官员预计将在2024年和2025年从加息转向降息。

But they also expect inflation to continue to recede² in both those years—an indication of how lags are baked into their forecasts.

但他们也预计通胀将在这两年继续降低--这表明他们的预测是考虑到了滞后的。

1 unprecedented   

adj.无前例的，新奇的

参考例句：

• The air crash caused an unprecedented number of deaths.这次空难的死亡人数是空前的。
• A flood of this sort is really unprecedented.这样大的洪水真是十年九不遇。

2 recede   

vi.退(去)，渐渐远去；向后倾斜，缩进

参考例句：

• The colleges would recede in importance.大学的重要性会降低。
• He saw that the dirty water had begun to recede.他发现那污浊的水开始往下退了。

3 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

4 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

5 interval   

n.间隔，间距；幕间休息，中场休息

参考例句：

• The interval between the two trees measures 40 feet.这两棵树的间隔是40英尺。
• There was a long interval before he anwsered the telephone.隔了好久他才回了电话。

6 tightening   

上紧，固定，紧密

参考例句：

• Make sure the washer is firmly seated before tightening the pipe. 旋紧水管之前，检查一下洗衣机是否已牢牢地固定在底座上了。
• It needs tightening up a little. 它还需要再收紧些。

7 helping   

n.食物的一份&adj.帮助人的，辅助的

参考例句：

• The poor children regularly pony up for a second helping of my hamburger. 那些可怜的孩子们总是要求我把我的汉堡包再给他们一份。
• By doing this, they may at times be helping to restore competition. 这样一来, 他在某些时候,有助于竞争的加强。

8 mitigate   

vt.（使）减轻，（使）缓和

参考例句：

• The government is trying to mitigate the effects of inflation.政府正试图缓和通货膨胀的影响。
• Governments should endeavour to mitigate distress.政府应努力缓解贫困问题。

9 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

10 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

11 mere   

adj.纯粹的；仅仅，只不过

参考例句：

• That is a mere repetition of what you said before.那不过是重复了你以前讲的话。
• It's a mere waste of time waiting any longer.再等下去纯粹是浪费时间。