2022年经济学人 欧洲为什么害怕量化紧缩？（2）

In parts of Europe’s financial system, QT looks increasingly urgent.

在欧洲部分金融体系中，QT看起来越来越紧迫。

The continent’s financial firms borrow and lend 11.5trn euros ($12trn) every year in its “repo” markets, in which the firms post bonds as collateral¹ in return for short-term funding.

欧洲大陆的金融公司每年会在其回购市场借贷11.5万亿欧元(12万亿美元)。在回购市场上，这些公司可以将债券作为抵押品，以换取短期资金。

The market is so big in part because policymakers encouraged its growth in the early days of the euro zone, hoping that German and Greek bonds would change hands on the same terms.

这个市场之所以如此庞大，部分原因是政策制定者在欧元区成立初期曾鼓励其发展，希望德国和希腊债券能以相同的条件易手。

This dream of a uniform repo market died during Europe’s debt crisis a decade ago, when companies thought Irish and Portuguese² bonds were so risky³ that they stopped swapping⁴ them altogether, ultimately widening spreads.

这种统一回购市场的梦想在10年前的欧债危机期间破灭了，当时各企业认为爱尔兰和葡萄牙的债券风险太大，于是它们完全停止了债券交换，最终导致差距扩大。

But it has left legions of lightly regulated traders ravenous⁵ for German bunds.

但这使得大批监管宽松的交易员对德国国债如饥似渴。

Since 2015 the ECB has scooped⁶ up bonds, starving these traders of collateral.

2015年以来，欧洲央行一直在大举买入债券，导致这些交易员缺乏抵押品。

Recent rate rises have worsened the shortage.

最近的加息又加剧了这种短缺。

Higher rates push down bond prices.

更高的利率压低了债券价格。

Because it is the value of bonds which matters when posting collateral, a given transaction now requires more bonds.

由于在提供抵押品时，债券的价值才是最重要的，所以特定交易现在需要更多债券。

The higher rates go, the worse the problem.

利率越高，问题就越严重。

German bonds have become so scarce that traders betting on yields have bid up their price.

德国债券变得如此稀缺，以至于押注收益率的交易员抬高了它们的价格。

In September yields on some short-term bonds, half of which are on the ECB’s balance-sheet, fell 1.1 percentage points below interbank interest rates, to their lowest since the euro-zone crisis.

9月份，一些短期债券(其中一半在欧洲央行的资产负债表上)的收益率比银行间利率低了1.1个百分点，降至欧元区危机以来的最低水平。

Though high rates in Italy might mess with monetary⁷ policy, cheap borrowing in Germany could undermine the inflation fight.

尽管意大利的高利率可能会扰乱货币政策，但德国的低息借贷可能会削弱对抗通胀的能力。

The ECB’s policymakers are thus caught in something of a bind⁸.

因此，欧洲央行的政策制定者陷入了某种困境。

Rapid QT would release short-term German bunds from its balance-sheet, ease Europe’s shortage of collateral and placate⁹ inflation hawks¹⁰.

快速QT会从德国资产负债表中释放短期国债，缓解欧洲抵押品短缺的问题，并安抚通胀鹰派。

But it would also threaten to widen spreads on long-term debt that—in a nightmare scenario¹¹ like the euro-zone crisis—could be pushed still wider by traders turned off by risky peripheral¹² collateral.

但它也有可能会扩大长期债务的差距，就像欧元区危机那样的噩梦一样，被高风险的外围抵押品吓跑的交易员可能会导致差距进一步扩大。

Delaying QT protects the periphery¹³.

推迟QT可以保护外围。

It does so at the cost of raising the financial stakes.

不过这样的代价是增加金融风险。

1 collateral   

adj.平行的；旁系的；n.担保品

参考例句：

• Many people use personal assets as collateral for small business loans.很多人把个人财产用作小额商业贷款的抵押品。
• Most people here cannot borrow from banks because they lack collateral.由于拿不出东西作为抵押，这里大部分人无法从银行贷款。

2 Portuguese   

n.葡萄牙人；葡萄牙语

参考例句：

• They styled their house in the Portuguese manner.他们仿照葡萄牙的风格设计自己的房子。
• Her family is Portuguese in origin.她的家族是葡萄牙血统。

3 risky   

adj.有风险的，冒险的

参考例句：

• It may be risky but we will chance it anyhow.这可能有危险，但我们无论如何要冒一冒险。
• He is well aware how risky this investment is.他心里对这项投资的风险十分清楚。

4 swapping   

交换，交换技术

参考例句：

• The slow swapping and buying of horses went on. 马匹的买卖和交换就是这样慢慢地进行着。
• He was quite keen on swapping books with friends. 他非常热衷于和朋友们交换书籍。

5 ravenous   

adj.极饿的，贪婪的

参考例句：

• The ravenous children ate everything on the table.饿极了的孩子把桌上所有东西吃掉了。
• Most infants have a ravenous appetite.大多数婴儿胃口极好。

6 scooped   

v.抢先报道( scoop的过去式和过去分词 )；（敏捷地）抱起；抢先获得；用铲[勺]等挖（洞等）

参考例句：

• They scooped the other newspapers by revealing the matter. 他们抢先报道了这件事。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The wheels scooped up stones which hammered ominously under the car. 车轮搅起的石块，在车身下发出不吉祥的锤击声。 来自《简明英汉词典》

7 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

8 bind   

vt.捆，包扎；装订；约束；使凝固；vi.变硬

参考例句：

• I will let the waiter bind up the parcel for you.我让服务生帮你把包裹包起来。
• He wants a shirt that does not bind him.他要一件不使他觉得过紧的衬衫。

9 placate   

v.抚慰，平息(愤怒)

参考例句：

• He never attempts to placate his enemy.他从不企图与敌人和解。
• Even a written apology failed to placate the indignant hostess.甚至一纸书面道歉都没能安抚这个怒气冲冲的女主人。

10 hawks   

鹰( hawk的名词复数 )； 鹰派人物，主战派人物

参考例句：

• Two hawks were hover ing overhead. 两只鹰在头顶盘旋。
• Both hawks and doves have expanded their conditions for ending the war. 鹰派和鸽派都充分阐明了各自的停战条件。

11 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。

12 peripheral   

adj.周边的，外围的

参考例句：

• We dealt with the peripheral aspects of a cost reduction program.我们谈到了降低成本计划的一些外围问题。
• The hotel provides the clerk the service and the peripheral traveling consultation.旅舍提供票务服务和周边旅游咨询。

13 periphery   

n.(圆体的)外面；周围

参考例句：

• Geographically, the UK is on the periphery of Europe.从地理位置上讲，英国处于欧洲边缘。
• The periphery of the retina is very sensitive to motion.视网膜的外围对运动非常敏感。