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The madness has begun: March Madness brackets are out. Lots of time and money go into those basketball pools, all a result of the national obsession¹ with brackets.

It turns out, though, that you'll have a better chance of having a successful March Madness bracket by flipping² a coin.

Professor Dae Hee Kwak, an assistant professor of Sports Management at the University of Michigan's School of Kinesiology, recently published a study in the Journal of Gambling³ Studies.

In conducting this study, he focused on what he calls "winning confidence." That's the confidence a person has when filling out a bracket.

In his first study, he examined whether the act of filling out a bracket itself shores up a person's confidence. One group was given an already-filled-out bracket, while the other was given a blank bracket to fill out themselves. Adjusting for participants' prior basketball knowledge, he then asked participants to rate the likelihood that their bracket would win from 1-100%.

Kwak said those who filled out their brackets were confident they would win, but it wasn't clear whether confidence had an impact on the overall result of those brackets.

He conducted a second study that involved betting. As gambling literature would predict, the "high confidence" groups bet 2.6 times more than "low confidence" groups.

However, according to the data gathered, people who reported high confidence did not outperform those with low confidence.

Flipping a coin

In 2011, Kwak conducted a study to determine whether someone flipping a coin would have a better chance with the bracket than someone with expert knowledge.

In 2011, not one of the top seeds made it into the Final Four.

"In the same year that we conducted this study, three basketball analysts⁵ from ESPN.com, Sports Illustrated⁶, and CBS Sports, they got their own predictions on the Final Four and only one analyst⁴ out of three got one team out of four correct," Kwak said. "So 11/12 teams were incorrect, but we would not argue that those analysts are less knowledgeable⁷ than the basketball average fans."

"I think it depends on how many upsets we have, but that's something that we can't really predict in advance."

-Lindsey Scullen, Michigan Radio Newsroom

1 obsession   

n.困扰，无法摆脱的思想(或情感)

参考例句：

• I was suffering from obsession that my career would be ended.那时的我陷入了我的事业有可能就此终止的困扰当中。
• She would try to forget her obsession with Christopher.她会努力忘记对克里斯托弗的迷恋。

2 flipping   

讨厌之极的

参考例句：

• I hate this flipping hotel! 我讨厌这个该死的旅馆！
• Don't go flipping your lid. 别发火。

3 gambling   

n.赌博；投机

参考例句：

• They have won a lot of money through gambling.他们赌博赢了很多钱。
• The men have been gambling away all night.那些人赌了整整一夜。

4 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

5 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

6 illustrated   

adj. 有插图的，列举的 动词illustrate的过去式和过去分词

参考例句：

• His lecture was illustrated with slides taken during the expedition. 他在讲演中使用了探险时拍摄到的幻灯片。
• The manufacturing Methods: Will be illustrated in the next chapter. 制作方法将在下一章说明。

7 knowledgeable   

adj.知识渊博的；有见识的

参考例句：

• He's quite knowledgeable about the theatre.他对戏剧很有心得。
• He made some knowledgeable remarks at the meeting.他在会上的发言颇有见地。