密歇根新闻广播 将要消失的独立选民

 

Are you persuadable? A persuadable voter, that is. The research says, probably not.

There's new research by political scientists at Berkeley and Stanford that says voters in general election campaigns are largely unpersuaded by political ads. And a lot of political pros¹ say this matches with their experience in recent years.

The theory is that voters, even ones who say they're independent, are so locked into their partisan² habits that they're not going to switch sides.

Now, to be clear, we are talking here about November partisan elections. It appears advertising³, flyers, and door knocking can still change minds in primaries, nonpartisan elections, and ballot⁴ proposals.

Corwin D Smidt, a Michigan State University political science professor, calls this increasingly rare species of persuadables "the floating voter."

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"In regard to the persuasion⁵ effect," he says, "partisanship⁷ is very strong right now, and this is in relation to my research, even people who claim to be independent show remarkably⁸ strong partisan attitudes. In fact, independents today seem to be more partisan than, say, strong partisans⁶ in the 60s and the 70s."

Now, professor Smidt says that doesn't mean there's no role for ads, flyers, and one-on-one voter contact leading into the November elections.

But those tactics, to be effective, need to be directed more at getting supporters to the polls on Election Day rather than trying to persuade the center to tip one way or the other.

That helps to explain why Republican Attorney General Bill Schuette - who is running for governor in Michigan - has attached himself so strongly to President Trump⁹. Trump is pretty unpopular right now among the general public but he's still popular among Republicans.

And Democrats¹⁰, if they turn out, are probably not going to be persuaded to cross over and support Schuette or whoever the Republican nominee¹¹ is.

That also helps to explain why Democrats are getting behind a statewide campaign to boost the minimum wage in Michigan. It's popular with their base.

But how about independents? Well, they may call themselves independent. That is not aligned¹² with either - or any - party. But that's not how they're behaving.

Plenty of surveys show that even people who call themselves "independent" still stick with one party across most of the ballot in election after election.

But, even though true independents are becoming fewer and fewer, in a state like Michigan, they can be consequential¹³. Just look at the margins¹⁴ here in last year's presidential race. Michigan was very, very close. It is fair to say that every vote counted. And every vote helped determine the course of history.

Which is why persuasion tactics in the general election aren't going away. There's a saying in politics that 70 percent of what you do in a campaign doesn't matter. You just don't know which 70 percent until after a campaign is over.

1 pros   

abbr.prosecuting 起诉；prosecutor 起诉人；professionals 自由职业者；proscenium （舞台）前部n.赞成的意见( pro的名词复数 )；赞成的理由；抵偿物；交换物

参考例句：

• The pros and cons cancel out. 正反两种意见抵消。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
• We should hear all the pros and cons of the matter before we make a decision. 我们在对这事做出决定之前，应该先听取正反两方面的意见。 来自《简明英汉词典》

2 partisan   

adj.党派性的；游击队的；n.游击队员；党徒

参考例句：

• In their anger they forget all the partisan quarrels.愤怒之中，他们忘掉一切党派之争。
• The numerous newly created partisan detachments began working slowly towards that region.许多新建的游击队都开始慢慢地向那里移动。

3 advertising   

n.广告业；广告活动 a.广告的；广告业务的

参考例句：

• Can you give me any advice on getting into advertising? 你能指点我如何涉足广告业吗?
• The advertising campaign is aimed primarily at young people. 这个广告宣传运动主要是针对年轻人的。

4 ballot   

n.（不记名）投票，投票总数，投票权；vi.投票

参考例句：

• The members have demanded a ballot.会员们要求投票表决。
• The union said they will ballot members on whether to strike.工会称他们将要求会员投票表决是否罢工。

5 persuasion   

n.劝说；说服；持有某种信仰的宗派

参考例句：

• He decided to leave only after much persuasion.经过多方劝说，他才决定离开。
• After a lot of persuasion,she agreed to go.经过多次劝说后，她同意去了。

6 partisans   

游击队员( partisan的名词复数 )； 党人； 党羽； 帮伙

参考例句：

• Every movement has its partisans. 每一运动都有热情的支持者。
• He was rescued by some Italian partisans. 他被几名意大利游击队员所救。

7 Partisanship   

n. 党派性, 党派偏见

参考例句：

• Her violent partisanship was fighting Soames's battle. 她的激烈偏袒等于替索米斯卖气力。
• There was a link of understanding between them, more important than affection or partisanship. ' 比起人间的感情，比起相同的政见，这一点都来得格外重要。 来自英汉文学

8 remarkably   

ad.不同寻常地，相当地

参考例句：

• I thought she was remarkably restrained in the circumstances. 我认为她在那种情况下非常克制。
• He made a remarkably swift recovery. 他康复得相当快。

9 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

10 democrats   

n.民主主义者，民主人士( democrat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The Democrats held a pep rally on Capitol Hill yesterday. 民主党昨天在国会山召开了竞选誓师大会。
• The democrats organize a filibuster in the senate. 民主党党员组织了阻挠议事。 来自《简明英汉词典》

11 nominee   

n.被提名者；被任命者；被推荐者

参考例句：

• His nominee for vice president was elected only after a second ballot.他提名的副总统在两轮投票后才当选。
• Mr.Francisco is standing as the official nominee for the post of District Secretary.弗朗西斯科先生是行政书记职位的正式提名人。

12 aligned   

adj.对齐的，均衡的

参考例句：

• Make sure the shelf is aligned with the top of the cupboard.务必使搁架与橱柜顶端对齐。

13 consequential   

adj.作为结果的，间接的；重要的

参考例句：

• She was injured and suffered a consequential loss of earnings.她受了伤因而收入受损。
• This new transformation is at least as consequential as that one was.这一新的转变至少和那次一样重要。

14 margins   

边( margin的名词复数 )； 利润； 页边空白； 差数

参考例句：

• They have always had to make do with relatively small profit margins. 他们不得不经常设法应付较少的利润额。
• To create more space between the navigation items, add left and right margins to the links. 在每个项目间留更多的空隙，加左或者右的margins来定义链接。