密歇根新闻广播 密歇根民主党来年处境更难

 

A year ago, I was talking to Matt Grossman, the pollster and political scientist at Michigan State University. Like most of us, he didn’t expect Donald Trump¹ would win. But he told me that if he did, 2018 would be a horrible year for Michigan Republicans.

Traditionally, the party holding the White House does badly in midterm elections – look at what happened to Democrats² in 2010 or Republicans in 2006. On top of that, Michigan Republicans have their own special problems, Flint being only the biggest.

Republicans have controlled every branch of state government for the last seven years, and can't reasonably blame the powerless Democrats for anything.

So on paper, you might expect Democrats to score a clean sweep of statewide offices next year.

The election is still a year away, and if we've learned anything, it is that anything can happen in a year. But right now, the Democrats don't look as strong as you might think, partly because they believe they have to lock themselves into an “ethnically balanced” ticket, which has often meant throwing their chances away.

There are two items of good news for them.

First, term limits mean all the Republican incumbents³ have to retire. Second, the GOP doesn't seem likely to be very competitive for Secretary of State. The likely Democratic nominee⁴, former Wayne State University law dean Jocelyn Benson, is formidably qualified⁵ and well-funded.

So far, the only Republican candidates are minor-leaguers. But the attorney general's race is one where the old Democratic dilemma⁶ threatens to again derail them. Of the three main possibilities, Dana Nessel stands out as incredibly strong.

She was a tough Wayne County prosecutor⁷ who put away auto⁸ thieves and child molesters, and then was the successful lead attorney in the 2014 April DeBoer and Jayne Rowse adoption⁹ case that helped lead to the U.S. Supreme¹⁰ Court deciding that same-sex couples have the right to marry.

State Senator Steve Bieda, D-Warren, has also been very effective despite being in the minority, successfully getting a bill passed to compensate¹¹ those wrongfully convicted and imprisoned¹².

Nevertheless, many feel the nominee is bound to be Patrick Miles, the former federal district attorney for western Michigan. Miles has not been an impressive campaigner, and is virtually unknown in metropolitan¹³ Detroit. But party orthodoxy says one of their statewide nominees¹⁴ has to be black, and he fits that bill.

When it comes to the governor's race, it seems likely that former State Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer will be the nominee, despite a flurry of national interest in Abdul El-Sayed, who people outside Michigan think could be the nation's first Muslim governor, and the eccentric businessman Shri Thanedar, who has dumped more than $5 million of his own money into a quixotic campaign.

Whitmer might easily beat Governor Rick Snyder. But he's not running. Michigan Attorney General Bill Schuette is the likely Republican nominee, and he's been running against Snyder as much as against the Democrats.

Schuette's been in politics since Whitmer was in grade school, and it's clear he will attempt to define her as the second coming of Jennifer Granholm: charismatic but ineffective.

So far, she hasn't established herself as a major force outside Lansing. This may well change. But if Democrats thought next year would be easy, they may need to think a little harder.

Correction—an earlier version of this commentary named "Jayne DeBoer and April Rowse." Their names are April DeBoer and Jayne Rowse. It's been corrected above.

Jack¹⁵ Lessenberry is Michigan Radio's Senior Political Analyst¹⁶. Views expressed in his essays are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Michigan Radio, its management or the station licensee, The University of Michigan.

1 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

2 democrats   

n.民主主义者，民主人士( democrat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The Democrats held a pep rally on Capitol Hill yesterday. 民主党昨天在国会山召开了竞选誓师大会。
• The democrats organize a filibuster in the senate. 民主党党员组织了阻挠议事。 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 incumbents   

教区牧师( incumbent的名词复数 )； 教会中的任职者

参考例句：

• In general, incumbents have a 94 percent chance of being reelected. 通常现任官员有94%的几率会再次当选。
• This arangement yields a wonderful gain to incumbents. 这种安排为在职人员提供了意外的得益。

4 nominee   

n.被提名者；被任命者；被推荐者

参考例句：

• His nominee for vice president was elected only after a second ballot.他提名的副总统在两轮投票后才当选。
• Mr.Francisco is standing as the official nominee for the post of District Secretary.弗朗西斯科先生是行政书记职位的正式提名人。

5 qualified   

adj.合格的，有资格的，胜任的，有限制的

参考例句：

• He is qualified as a complete man of letters.他有资格当真正的文学家。
• We must note that we still lack qualified specialists.我们必须看到我们还缺乏有资质的专家。

6 dilemma   

n.困境，进退两难的局面

参考例句：

• I am on the horns of a dilemma about the matter.这件事使我进退两难。
• He was thrown into a dilemma.他陷入困境。

7 prosecutor   

n.起诉人；检察官，公诉人

参考例句：

• The defender argued down the prosecutor at the court.辩护人在法庭上驳倒了起诉人。
• The prosecutor would tear your testimony to pieces.检查官会把你的证言驳得体无完肤。

8 auto   

n.(=automobile)(口语)汽车

参考例句：

• Don't park your auto here.别把你的汽车停在这儿。
• The auto industry has brought many people to Detroit.汽车工业把许多人吸引到了底特律。

9 adoption   

n.采用，采纳，通过；收养

参考例句：

• An adoption agency had sent the boys to two different families.一个收养机构把他们送给两个不同的家庭。
• The adoption of this policy would relieve them of a tremendous burden.采取这一政策会给他们解除一个巨大的负担。

10 supreme   

adj.极度的，最重要的；至高的，最高的

参考例句：

• It was the supreme moment in his life.那是他一生中最重要的时刻。
• He handed up the indictment to the supreme court.他把起诉书送交最高法院。

11 compensate   

vt.补偿，赔偿；酬报 vi.弥补；补偿；抵消

参考例句：

• She used her good looks to compensate her lack of intelligence. 她利用她漂亮的外表来弥补智力的不足。
• Nothing can compensate for the loss of one's health. 一个人失去了键康是不可弥补的。

12 imprisoned   

下狱，监禁( imprison的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• He was imprisoned for two concurrent terms of 30 months and 18 months. 他被判处30个月和18个月的监禁，合并执行。
• They were imprisoned for possession of drugs. 他们因拥有毒品而被监禁。

13 metropolitan   

adj.大城市的，大都会的

参考例句：

• Metropolitan buildings become taller than ever.大城市的建筑变得比以前更高。
• Metropolitan residents are used to fast rhythm.大都市的居民习惯于快节奏。

14 nominees   

n.被提名者，被任命者( nominee的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• She's one of the nominees. 她是被提名者之一。 来自超越目标英语 第2册
• A startling number of his nominees for senior positions have imploded. 他所提名的高级官员被否决的数目令人震惊。 来自互联网

15 jack   

n.插座，千斤顶，男人；v.抬起，提醒，扛举；n.（Jake）杰克

参考例句：

• I am looking for the headphone jack.我正在找寻头戴式耳机插孔。
• He lifted the car with a jack to change the flat tyre.他用千斤顶把车顶起来换下瘪轮胎。

16 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。