密歇根新闻广播 两党制的终结?

 

Last weekend, Ohio Governor John Kasich became the latest to say it: "We may be beginning to see the end of a two-party system," he said on an ABC public affairs program, adding

"I'm starting to wonder if we are going to see a multi-party system at some point … because I don't think either party is answering people's deepest concerns and needs."

Those remarks might have been self-serving. Kasich, who two decades ago was seen as just another conservative congressman¹, has become the symbol of a supposed moderate Republican Party, or at least a rational and sane² alternative to what we have now.

There's been talk of Kasich running an independent campaign for President with Colorado Democratic Governor John Hickenlooper as his running mate.

Well, he's far from the first political figure to predict the demise³ of the two-party system, and he's been around a long time. He was an investment banker before serving many years in Congress. But when it comes to the two-party system, he's almost certainly wrong.

And here's why. Now, I think it's entirely⁴ possible we could have an independent candidate elected president in our lifetimes. We nearly did so in 1992, when for a while, H. Ross Perot led both major party candidates, and might well have won except for some extremely erratic⁵ behavior, including getting out of the race entirely for a time.

But here is what would happen the day after an independent were elected President – or for that matter, Governor of Michigan. They would immediately have to affiliate⁶ with one of the two major parties. An independent President Kasich would face a Congress with 535 members, all but two of whom are Republicans or Democrats⁷.

Without the support of a major party, his chances of getting any program enacted⁸ would be pretty close to absolute zero. This would be even truer in Lansing, where there's a distinct feeling that if one party said the sky was blue, the opposition⁹ would immediately oppose this.

The reason third parties are effectively shut out has to do with our system, which has evolved so that we think in dualistic terms; we have one party in power, and another opposing them, and every few years they switch. We have no history of multi-party coalitions¹⁰, as in Europe.

Changing this would take billions of dollars, and almost certainly decades.

Someone would have to create a new party and then work patiently to get its members elected to office at the state, local and congressional level. If it did meet with some success, the temptation would soon be overwhelming to merge¹¹ with one of the two major parties, perhaps in return for the major party changing its platform on the key issue or issues that mattered most to the insurgents¹².

Indeed, this is what has happened time and again throughout our history. The parties themselves have also changed. Sixty years ago, Vermont was the most Republican state in the union; Mississippi, totally Democratic. The opposite is now true.

American major parties are not especially ideological¹³, though both now are more than they used to be. Kasich isn't wrong about there being vast dissatisfaction with both parties. But capturing and transforming one has historically been the model for change.

And of course … someday I may be proven wrong.

Jack¹⁴ Lessenberry is Michigan Radio's Senior Political Analyst¹⁵. Views expressed in his essays are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Michigan Radio, its management or the station licensee, The University of Michigan.

1 Congressman   

n.（美）国会议员

参考例句：

• He related several anecdotes about his first years as a congressman.他讲述自己初任议员那几年的几则轶事。
• The congressman is meditating a reply to his critics.这位国会议员正在考虑给他的批评者一个答复。

2 sane   

adj.心智健全的，神志清醒的，明智的，稳健的

参考例句：

• He was sane at the time of the murder.在凶杀案发生时他的神志是清醒的。
• He is a very sane person.他是一个很有头脑的人。

3 demise   

n.死亡；v.让渡，遗赠，转让

参考例句：

• He praised the union's aims but predicted its early demise.他赞扬协会的目标，但预期这一协会很快会消亡。
• The war brought about the industry's sudden demise.战争道致这个行业就这么突然垮了。

4 entirely   

ad.全部地，完整地；完全地，彻底地

参考例句：

• The fire was entirely caused by their neglect of duty. 那场火灾完全是由于他们失职而引起的。
• His life was entirely given up to the educational work. 他的一生统统献给了教育工作。

5 erratic   

adj.古怪的，反复无常的，不稳定的

参考例句：

• The old man had always been cranky and erratic.那老头儿性情古怪,反复无常。
• The erratic fluctuation of market prices is in consequence of unstable economy.经济波动致使市场物价忽起忽落。

6 affiliate   

vt.使隶(附)属于；n.附属机构，分公司

参考例句：

• Our New York company has an affiliate in Los Angeles.我们的纽约公司在洛杉矶有一个下属企业。
• What is the difference between affiliate and regular membership?固定会员和附属会员之间的区别是什么？

7 democrats   

n.民主主义者，民主人士( democrat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The Democrats held a pep rally on Capitol Hill yesterday. 民主党昨天在国会山召开了竞选誓师大会。
• The democrats organize a filibuster in the senate. 民主党党员组织了阻挠议事。 来自《简明英汉词典》

8 enacted   

制定（法律），通过（法案）( enact的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• legislation enacted by parliament 由议会通过的法律
• Outside in the little lobby another scene was begin enacted. 外面的小休息室里又是另一番景象。 来自英汉文学 - 嘉莉妹妹

9 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

10 coalitions   

结合体，同盟( coalition的名词复数 )； （两党或多党）联合政府

参考例句：

• History testifies to the ineptitude of coalitions in waging war. 历史昭示我们，多数国家联合作战，其进行甚为困难。
• All the coalitions in history have disintegrated sooner or later. 历史上任何联盟迟早都垮台了。

11 merge   

v.(使)结合，(使)合并，(使)合为一体

参考例句：

• I can merge my two small businesses into a large one.我可以将我的两家小商店合并为一家大商行。
• The directors have decided to merge the two small firms together.董事们已决定把这两家小商号归并起来。

12 insurgents   

n.起义，暴动，造反( insurgent的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The regular troops of Baden joined the insurgents. 巴登的正规军参加到起义军方面来了。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Against the Taliban and Iraqi insurgents, these problems are manageable. 要对付塔利班与伊拉克叛乱分子，这些问题还是可以把握住的。 来自互联网

13 ideological   

a.意识形态的

参考例句：

• He always tries to link his study with his ideological problems. 他总是把学习和自己的思想问题联系起来。
• He helped me enormously with advice on how to do ideological work. 他告诉我怎样做思想工作，对我有很大帮助。

14 jack   

n.插座，千斤顶，男人；v.抬起，提醒，扛举；n.（Jake）杰克

参考例句：

• I am looking for the headphone jack.我正在找寻头戴式耳机插孔。
• He lifted the car with a jack to change the flat tyre.他用千斤顶把车顶起来换下瘪轮胎。

15 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。