密歇根新闻广播 对汽车的不确定性迫近

 

By this time, the long-running auto¹ boom was supposed to be coming to an end.

Quick, someone tell that to the truck and SUV buyers who powered the annual selling rate last month to 17.5 million vehicles. That's according to a Morgan Stanley estimate. If that's evidence of a slowdown, Detroit and its foreign-owned rivals would like more of the same, please.

With apologies to the ol' Clinton war room, "It's the economy, stupid." Low unemployment and a buoyant job market, still-cheap credit and a vehicle fleet averaging 11 years old, keep extending the streak². It's the longest-running one since Detroit's Golden Age in the 1960s. Tax cuts helped, too.

But complications loom³. President Donald Trump⁴'s proposed policy shifts on trade and emissions⁵ rules imperil the industry's momentum⁶. They could end the industry's job creation and spoil the alleged⁷ love affair between the president and the industrial heartland that got him elected.

Turmoil⁸ like this begets⁹ uncertainty¹⁰ – exactly what business doesn't want. Business craves¹¹ certainty because it makes long-term investment decisions. But the administration's policy gyrations on steel tariffs¹³, on levies¹⁴ for imported vehicles and parts, deliver nothing but uncertainty.

That's not good – no matter who is president. Business leaders, financial markets and foreign governments hate unpredictable decision-making. But that's precisely¹⁵ the style Trump has brought to the Oval Office – and delivered with mixed results.

It's also the reality the world's automakers must manage.

However…

Trump's trade worldview highlights a point too often dismissed by traditionalists who back the post-World War II consensus¹⁶ on global trade. And it's this: Times have changed. The U.S.-backed Marshall Plan that helped former enemies like Germany and Japan rebuild their economies is long gone – even if some of the assumptions behind it remain.

Germany is the undisputed economic powerhouse of the European Union. Japan's automakers a generation ago throttled¹⁷ their Detroit rivals, and foreign brands now claim 55% of the rich U.S. market. China's economy is second only to the United States.

In the Trumpian worldview, it doesn't matter that European car buyers simply are not clamoring to buy more American-made vehicles. What matters is that German, Swedish and British models bound for the U.S. are assessed a 2.5% tariff¹² … and American metal gets hit four times higher at 10%.

Doesn't matter that a company like General Motors built four million cars last year in China. What matters is that Chinese-built vehicles sent to the U.S. carry a 2.5% tariff … and American-built vehicles bound for China pay a 15% levy¹⁸ … reduced in May from 25%.

Look, with government-mandated plans to dominate a dozen global industries by 2025, can China credibly¹⁹ be considered a "developing" economy? The sensible answer is, of course, no.

That's why Trump's tariffs enjoy more than token support – at least until their unintended consequences bite more deeply into autos and agriculture, Harley-Davidson motorcycles and Kentucky bourbon distillers.

We don't yet know whether Trump's trade tactics and emissions roll-backs will, quote, "help" the auto industry. But automakers are learning their road to prosperity is littered with bumps and uncertainty. It's the new normal.

Daniel Howes is a columnist²⁰ at The Detroit News. Views expressed in his essays are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Michigan Radio, its management or the station licensee, The University of Michigan.

1 auto   

n.(=automobile)(口语)汽车

参考例句：

• Don't park your auto here.别把你的汽车停在这儿。
• The auto industry has brought many people to Detroit.汽车工业把许多人吸引到了底特律。

2 streak   

n.条理，斑纹，倾向，少许，痕迹；v.加条纹，变成条纹，奔驰，快速移动

参考例句：

• The Indians used to streak their faces with paint.印第安人过去常用颜料在脸上涂条纹。
• Why did you streak the tree?你为什么在树上刻条纹？

3 loom   

n.织布机，织机；v.隐现，(危险、忧虑等)迫近

参考例句：

• The old woman was weaving on her loom.那位老太太正在织布机上织布。
• The shuttle flies back and forth on the loom.织布机上梭子来回飞动。

4 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

5 emissions   

排放物( emission的名词复数 )； 散发物（尤指气体）

参考例句：

• Most scientists accept that climate change is linked to carbon emissions. 大多数科学家都相信气候变化与排放的含碳气体有关。
• Dangerous emissions radiate from plutonium. 危险的辐射物从钚放散出来。

6 momentum   

n.动力，冲力，势头；动量

参考例句：

• We exploit the energy and momentum conservation laws in this way.我们就是这样利用能量和动量守恒定律的。
• The law of momentum conservation could supplant Newton's third law.动量守恒定律可以取代牛顿第三定律。

7 alleged   

a.被指控的，嫌疑的

参考例句：

• It was alleged that he had taken bribes while in office. 他被指称在任时收受贿赂。
• alleged irregularities in the election campaign 被指称竞选运动中的不正当行为

8 turmoil   

n.骚乱，混乱，动乱

参考例句：

• His mind was in such a turmoil that he couldn't get to sleep.内心的纷扰使他无法入睡。
• The robbery put the village in a turmoil.抢劫使全村陷入混乱。

9 begets   

v.为…之生父( beget的第三人称单数 )；产生，引起

参考例句：

• It begets at least seven standard type offspring from such matings. 这类交配中生下至少七个标准型后代。 来自辞典例句
• Violence begets violence until the innocent perish with the guilty. 暴力招致暴力直到这因罪行而无缘无故的毁灭。 来自电影对白

10 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

11 craves   

渴望，热望( crave的第三人称单数 )； 恳求，请求

参考例句：

• The tree craves calm but the wind will not drop. 树欲静而风不止。
• Victory would give him a passport to the riches he craves. 胜利将使他有机会获得自己梦寐以求的财富。

12 tariff   

n.关税，税率；(旅馆、饭店等)价目表，收费表

参考例句：

• There is a very high tariff on jewelry.宝石类的关税率很高。
• The government is going to lower the tariff on importing cars.政府打算降低进口汽车的关税。

13 tariffs   

关税制度； 关税( tariff的名词复数 )； 关税表； （旅馆或饭店等的）收费表； 量刑标准

参考例句：

• British industry was sheltered from foreign competition by protective tariffs. 保护性关税使英国工业免受国际竞争影响。
• The new tariffs have put a stranglehold on trade. 新的关税制对开展贸易极为不利。

14 levies   

（部队）征兵( levy的名词复数 )； 募捐； 被征募的军队

参考例句：

• At that time, taxes and levies were as many as the hairs on an ox. 那时，苛捐杂税多如牛毛。
• Variable levies can insulate farmers and consumers from world markets. 差价进口税可以把农民和消费者与世界市场隔离开来。

15 precisely   

adv.恰好，正好，精确地，细致地

参考例句：

• It's precisely that sort of slick sales-talk that I mistrust.我不相信的正是那种油腔滑调的推销宣传。
• The man adjusted very precisely.那个人调得很准。

16 consensus   

n.(意见等的)一致，一致同意，共识

参考例句：

• Can we reach a consensus on this issue?我们能在这个问题上取得一致意见吗？
• What is the consensus of opinion at the afternoon meeting?下午会议上一致的意见是什么？

17 throttled   

v.扼杀( throttle的过去式和过去分词 )；勒死；使窒息；压制

参考例句：

• He throttled the guard with his bare hands. 他徒手掐死了卫兵。
• The pilot got very low before he throttled back. 飞行员减速之前下降得很低。 来自《简明英汉词典》

18 levy   

n.征收税或其他款项，征收额

参考例句：

• They levy a tax on him.他们向他征税。
• A direct food levy was imposed by the local government.地方政府征收了食品税。

19 credibly   

ad.可信地；可靠地

参考例句：

• I am credibly informed that. 由可靠方面听说。
• An effective management software ensures network to run credibly. 一个高效的网管软件是网络运行的可靠保证。

20 columnist   

n.专栏作家

参考例句：

• The host was interviewing a local columnist.节目主持人正在同一位当地的专栏作家交谈。
• She's a columnist for USA Today.她是《今日美国报》的专栏作家。