密歇根新闻广播 中期选举失败是因为经济吗?

Judging by conventional wisdom and all-knowing polls, President Donald Trump¹ and his Republicans face a historic wipeout in the coming mid-term elections.

But if you accept the Clintonian notion that "it's the economy, stupid" such thinking may be just a bit too conventional.

Trump's economic czar, the former CNBC personality Larry Kudlow, breezed into town this week for a stop at the Detroit Economic Club. He was surprisingly armed with statistics making the case that America is undergoing the biggest growth boom since Ronald Reagan occupied the Oval.

Legions of Trump haters might not want to hear it, but ol' Larry may have a pointorseveral, actually.

Unemployment is plumbing² historic lows for most demographic groups – including those generally aligned³ with Democrats⁴. For the first time in a decade, the World Economic Forum⁵ named the United States the world's most competitive economy. Consumer and small-business confidence are strong.

There's more. Kudlow said the economy boasts seven million more job openings than thenumber of people unemployed⁶. Income after taxes and inflation is up three percent. And Federal Reserve banks in St. Louis and Atlanta predict third-quarter growth will top four percent, double what the critics predicted.

Kudlow says, quote, "ordinary folks are making money. For the first time in 20 years, the whole range of the workforce⁷ is prospering⁸. It's not just the top – it's everybody."

The calculation here is clear: an administration whose deal-maker-in-chief reduces almost every policy decision to a financial transaction is betting that fatter wallets will trump politics in the mid-terms. That a buoyant economy generating jobs is more important than the Russia investigation⁹ or Saudi Arabia's complicity in the death of a Washington Post columnist¹⁰ or the Supreme¹¹ Court battle over Justice Kavanaugh.

Kudlow's message: The good times are just getting started.

What this means for the hometown auto¹² industry is less clear. Interest rates are rising. Consumer demand for cars, trucks and SUVs is softening¹³. And Trump tariffs¹⁴ real andthreatened are causing some auto execs to whisper that dreaded¹⁶ word "downturn."

Kudlow's not buying it. Because the data doesn't support it. Because the autos are still making decent money. And because conceding the point would contradict the message he's delivering to the industrial heartland on behalf of the Trump White House.

What he calls "the American growth story" will "go on two, three or four years," he says a conclusion not universally shared by prognosticators predicting slower times by 2020just in time for the presidential campaign.

And in this town, the trade tension sparked by Trump's tariff¹⁵ wars isn't helpful, either. General Motors' No. 1 market is China. It's No. 2 for Ford¹⁷ Motor.

The president's hard-line tactics and their reliance on steel, aluminum¹⁸ and threatenedauto tariffs are eating into the automakers' bottom lines. Ford's CEO says they've alreadycost the Blue Oval one billion in profits.

Will that influence voters around here? Team Trump is betting no...with a little helpfrom the economy, stupid.

Daniel Howes is a columnist at The Detroit News. Views expressed in his essays are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Michigan Radio, its management or the station licensee, The University of Michigan.

1 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

2 plumbing   

n.水管装置；水暖工的工作；管道工程v.用铅锤测量（plumb的现在分词）；探究

参考例句：

• She spent her life plumbing the mysteries of the human psyche. 她毕生探索人类心灵的奥秘。
• They're going to have to put in new plumbing. 他们将需要安装新的水管。 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 aligned   

adj.对齐的，均衡的

参考例句：

• Make sure the shelf is aligned with the top of the cupboard.务必使搁架与橱柜顶端对齐。

4 democrats   

n.民主主义者，民主人士( democrat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The Democrats held a pep rally on Capitol Hill yesterday. 民主党昨天在国会山召开了竞选誓师大会。
• The democrats organize a filibuster in the senate. 民主党党员组织了阻挠议事。 来自《简明英汉词典》

5 forum   

n.论坛，讨论会

参考例句：

• They're holding a forum on new ways of teaching history.他们正在举行历史教学讨论会。
• The organisation would provide a forum where problems could be discussed.这个组织将提供一个可以讨论问题的平台。

6 unemployed   

adj.失业的，没有工作的；未动用的，闲置的

参考例句：

• There are now over four million unemployed workers in this country.这个国家现有四百万失业人员。
• The unemployed hunger for jobs.失业者渴望得到工作。

7 workforce   

n.劳动大军，劳动力

参考例句：

• A large part of the workforce is employed in agriculture.劳动人口中一大部分受雇于农业。
• A quarter of the local workforce is unemployed.本地劳动力中有四分之一失业。

8 prospering   

成功，兴旺( prosper的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• Our country is thriving and prospering day by day. 祖国日益繁荣昌盛。
• His business is prospering. 他生意兴隆。

9 investigation   

n.调查，调查研究

参考例句：

• In an investigation,a new fact became known, which told against him.在调查中新发现了一件对他不利的事实。
• He drew the conclusion by building on his own investigation.他根据自己的调查研究作出结论。

10 columnist   

n.专栏作家

参考例句：

• The host was interviewing a local columnist.节目主持人正在同一位当地的专栏作家交谈。
• She's a columnist for USA Today.她是《今日美国报》的专栏作家。

11 supreme   

adj.极度的，最重要的；至高的，最高的

参考例句：

• It was the supreme moment in his life.那是他一生中最重要的时刻。
• He handed up the indictment to the supreme court.他把起诉书送交最高法院。

12 auto   

n.(=automobile)(口语)汽车

参考例句：

• Don't park your auto here.别把你的汽车停在这儿。
• The auto industry has brought many people to Detroit.汽车工业把许多人吸引到了底特律。

13 softening   

变软，软化

参考例句：

• Her eyes, softening, caressed his face. 她的眼光变得很温柔了。它们不住地爱抚他的脸。 来自汉英文学 - 家（1-26） - 家（1-26）
• He might think my brain was softening or something of the kind. 他也许会觉得我婆婆妈妈的，已经成了个软心肠的人了。

14 tariffs   

关税制度； 关税( tariff的名词复数 )； 关税表； （旅馆或饭店等的）收费表； 量刑标准

参考例句：

• British industry was sheltered from foreign competition by protective tariffs. 保护性关税使英国工业免受国际竞争影响。
• The new tariffs have put a stranglehold on trade. 新的关税制对开展贸易极为不利。

15 tariff   

n.关税，税率；(旅馆、饭店等)价目表，收费表

参考例句：

• There is a very high tariff on jewelry.宝石类的关税率很高。
• The government is going to lower the tariff on importing cars.政府打算降低进口汽车的关税。

16 dreaded   

adj.令人畏惧的；害怕的v.害怕，恐惧，担心( dread的过去式和过去分词)

参考例句：

• The dreaded moment had finally arrived. 可怕的时刻终于来到了。
• He dreaded having to spend Christmas in hospital. 他害怕非得在医院过圣诞节不可。 来自《用法词典》

17 Ford   

n.浅滩，水浅可涉处；v.涉水，涉过

参考例句：

• They were guarding the bridge,so we forded the river.他们驻守在那座桥上，所以我们只能涉水过河。
• If you decide to ford a stream,be extremely careful.如果已决定要涉过小溪，必须极度小心。

18 aluminum   

n.(aluminium)铝

参考例句：

• The aluminum sheets cannot be too much thicker than 0.04 inches.铝板厚度不能超过0.04英寸。
• During the launch phase,it would ride in a protective aluminum shell.在发射阶段，它盛在一只保护的铝壳里。