密歇根新闻广播 寒冷的冬季降至

 

It's that time of year: the days are getting shorter, the temperature is dropping, and Michiganders are beginning to (reluctantly) accept that winter is near.

The last two winters have been overall warmer on average, but with multiple periods of polar vortex, or extremely frigid¹ temperatures.

So what does this upcoming winter have in store? Snowy and warm, with a chance of polar vortex.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric² Association (NOAA) released their annual winter forecast Thursday.

It looks like we have a better chance of a harsh winter than we do for a typical or even mild winter, says NOAA meteorologist Rich Pollman.

NOAA forecasts predict above-normal precipitation throughout the Great Lakes region.

Every winter has snow, says Pollman. This winter looks like we're going to have at least average snow, with the potential for a little bit more than that. So plan on a typical winter, and we won't be surprised by anything.

Meteorologist Jeff Masters is the co-founder of Weather Underground. He says predicting long-term winter weather is especially difficult during the neutral phase of the El Nino.

Masters says, When there is an ongoing³ El Ni?o or La Ni?a event going on — which cause large-scale warming or cooling of the waters of the Eastern Pacific Ocean, thus affecting long-term climate patterns — we can make more confident predictions on what the winter weather will be like.

Instead, other factors are used to predict winter weather conditions, such as the sunspot cycle.

We are currently at a deep minimum in the sunspot cycle, says Masters, and we've seen in the past that such occurrences tend to promote what we call blocking events in January and February, areas of high pressure that set up over Greenland, blocking the jet stream flow, and forcing cold air to funnel⁴ southwards into the Midwest and Eastern U.S. in the notorious polar vortex events with extreme cold.

Another important factor in winter weather is the Arctic Oscillation (AO), which is the atmospheric circulation pattern around the Arctic. But the AO doesn't help scientists with long-term predictions.

The Arctic Oscillation can only be forecasted about two to four weeks in advance," Pollman says. "So how that sets up during our winter months, we might be able to give a two week heads-up notice, maybe a four week heads-up notice when that polar vortex is gonna be swinging through.

And with frost and some snow already in the forecast, it might be wise to dig out your winter gear now.

1 frigid   

adj.寒冷的，凛冽的；冷淡的；拘禁的

参考例句：

• The water was too frigid to allow him to remain submerged for long.水冰冷彻骨，他在下面呆不了太长时间。
• She returned his smile with a frigid glance.对他的微笑她报以冷冷的一瞥。

2 atmospheric   

adj.大气的，空气的；大气层的；大气所引起的

参考例句：

• Sea surface temperatures and atmospheric circulation are strongly coupled.海洋表面温度与大气环流是密切相关的。
• Clouds return radiant energy to the surface primarily via the atmospheric window.云主要通过大气窗区向地表辐射能量。

3 ongoing   

adj.进行中的，前进的

参考例句：

• The problem is ongoing.这个问题尚未解决。
• The issues raised in the report relate directly to Age Concern's ongoing work in this area.报告中提出的问题与“关心老人”组织在这方面正在做的工作有直接的关系。

4 funnel   

n.漏斗；烟囱；v.汇集

参考例句：

• He poured the petrol into the car through a funnel.他用一个漏斗把汽油灌入汽车。
• I like the ship with a yellow funnel.我喜欢那条有黄烟囱的船。