美国国家公共电台 NPR Publishers' Dilemma: Judge A Book By Its Data Or Trust The Editor's Gut?

Publishers' Dilemma¹: Judge A Book By Its Data Or Trust The Editor's Gut²?

KELLY MCEVERS, HOST:

Publishing is a notoriously risky³ business. A publishing house might give a first-time author a six-figure deal, and then the book flops⁴. It's always been hard to predict what will sell. But publishers are now getting some help from data that tells them how readers read. NPR's Lynn Neary reports it's a development that makes some people nervous.

LYNN NEARY, BYLINE⁵: Alan Rinzler has a long history in publishing. Starting as an editor in 1962, he worked with some greats, including Toni Morrison, and ushered⁶ in some of that era's classics - "Bury My Heart At Wounded Knee" and "Manchild In The Promised Land." Now a freelance editor, Rinzler says publishing a book is not just a business decision. It's an act of love.

ALAN RINZLER: It really is. Editors fall in love with books. They see something in it that resonates for them personally, and they become passionate⁷ about it. They really have no idea whether or not the book will sell. It's strictly⁸ an intuition, an instinct.

NEARY: Of course most books don't make any money. It's the 20-80 rule, says Rinzler. Profits from 20, maybe even 10, percent of books support the 80 or 90 percent that don't sell. So some publishers think relying solely⁹ on instinct is just not enough.

DOMINIQUE RACCAH: Data is better than your gut. Yes, I have said that.

NEARY: Dominique Raccah is publisher and CEO of Sourcebooks, a company that's been described as data-driven, a description Raccah does not dispute. Raccah says sales data has been available for a while, but now she has access to a different kind of information.

RACCAH: Up to very recently, we really didn't have any insights into how readers were behaving with books in terms of their reading patterns or their reading of a specific book. All of that was kind of missing.

NEARY: Digital books made it possible to track the way people read, and companies like Amazon and Apple could gather that data but didn't share it with publishers. Now a number of businesses have sprung up that specialize in reader analytics, and they are sharing their findings. Andrew Rhomberg is the founder¹⁰ of Jellybooks, a London-based company which began gathering¹¹ reader data to help publishers with marketing¹² decisions.

ANDREW RHOMBERG: But since then, publishers have discovered they can use it for all sorts of other reasons like, why did a book that we launched not really sell despite having big expectations for it? Or if it's a first-time author who seems to be selling well, are people really reading that author? And they will buy the second book.

NEARY: To figure that out, Jellybooks recruits readers by offering free e-books in exchange for allowing the company to collect reading data. It tracks whether or not the reader finishes the book. Most don't get halfway¹³ through. Jellybooks also measures how long it takes to read a book and asks those who do finish it if they would recommend it. Sometimes, Rhomberg says, the results are surprising.

RHOMBERG: Once you have the data that says 90 percent of readers gave up after three chapters, it's pretty clear. On the other hand, there are books where the editor said, this is a lovely, lovely book, and she couldn't convince anybody in house. Then it turns out readers just devour¹⁴ it.

NEARY: Rhomberg says no publisher has cancelled a book based on Jellybook's data, but Alan Rinzler is wary¹⁵. He points to Toni Morrison's first book, "The Bluest Eye," which he edited. A lot of people found the subject matter - rape¹⁶ and incest - offensive.

RINZLER: I think people given that book under reader analytics would have put it down pretty quick, and publishers might have said, this will never sell.

NEARY: Rinzler says little is known about the readers recruited by Jellybooks books, their personal tastes or their reading preferences.

RINZLER: They're identified as female 51 or male 39. If I was publishing the book or if I was the author, I wouldn't really care much what those people thought.

RACCAH: There isn't a lot to fear here. This is a data point.

NEARY: Publisher Dominique Raccah...

RACCAH: I think that's one of the big distinctions that one needs to make in this space - is whether you think that data is actually the decider or whether you actually are simply using data as one of the forms of information that you use.

NEARY: Raccah says publishers regularly have conversations with authors about works in progress or their sales numbers, and this new data is just one more thing to add to the mix. But it's essential, she says, to respect the writer's point of view.

RACCAH: They are the fundamental creator of the work, and for me, data is a methodology to help inform creativity, not a methodology for stifling¹⁷ it or for creating something other.

NEARY: Publishing a book will always be a gamble, says Raccah, and gut instinct will always play a role in choosing what books to publish. But now that it's possible to collect real data on the way people read, that will become part of the process as well. Lynn Neary, NPR News, Washington.

1 dilemma   

n.困境，进退两难的局面

参考例句：

• I am on the horns of a dilemma about the matter.这件事使我进退两难。
• He was thrown into a dilemma.他陷入困境。

2 gut   

n.[pl.]胆量；内脏；adj.本能的；vt.取出内脏

参考例句：

• It is not always necessary to gut the fish prior to freezing.冷冻鱼之前并不总是需要先把内脏掏空。
• My immediate gut feeling was to refuse.我本能的直接反应是拒绝。

3 risky   

adj.有风险的，冒险的

参考例句：

• It may be risky but we will chance it anyhow.这可能有危险，但我们无论如何要冒一冒险。
• He is well aware how risky this investment is.他心里对这项投资的风险十分清楚。

4 flops   

n.失败( flop的名词复数 )v.（指书、戏剧等）彻底失败( flop的第三人称单数 )；（因疲惫而）猛然坐下；（笨拙地、不由自主地或松弛地）移动或落下；砸锅

参考例句：

• a pair of flip-flops 一双人字拖鞋
• HPC environments are often measured in terms of FLoating point Operations Per Second (FLOPS) . HPC环境通常以每秒浮点运算次数(FLOPS)加以度量。 来自互联网

5 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

6 ushered   

v.引，领，陪同( usher的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The secretary ushered me into his office. 秘书把我领进他的办公室。
• A round of parties ushered in the New Year. 一系列的晚会迎来了新年。 来自《简明英汉词典》

7 passionate   

adj.热情的，热烈的，激昂的，易动情的，易怒的，性情暴躁的

参考例句：

• He is said to be the most passionate man.据说他是最有激情的人。
• He is very passionate about the project.他对那个项目非常热心。

8 strictly   

adv.严厉地，严格地；严密地

参考例句：

• His doctor is dieting him strictly.他的医生严格规定他的饮食。
• The guests were seated strictly in order of precedence.客人严格按照地位高低就座。

9 solely   

adv.仅仅，唯一地

参考例句：

• Success should not be measured solely by educational achievement.成功与否不应只用学业成绩来衡量。
• The town depends almost solely on the tourist trade.这座城市几乎完全靠旅游业维持。

10 Founder   

n.创始者，缔造者

参考例句：

• He was extolled as the founder of their Florentine school.他被称颂为佛罗伦萨画派的鼻祖。
• According to the old tradition,Romulus was the founder of Rome.按照古老的传说，罗穆卢斯是古罗马的建国者。

11 gathering   

n.集会，聚会，聚集

参考例句：

• He called on Mr. White to speak at the gathering.他请怀特先生在集会上讲话。
• He is on the wing gathering material for his novels.他正忙于为他的小说收集资料。

12 marketing   

n.行销，在市场的买卖，买东西

参考例句：

• They are developing marketing network.他们正在发展销售网络。
• He often goes marketing.他经常去市场做生意。

13 halfway   

adj.中途的，不彻底的，部分的；adv.半路地，在中途，在半途

参考例句：

• We had got only halfway when it began to get dark.走到半路，天就黑了。
• In study the worst danger is give up halfway.在学习上，最忌讳的是有始无终。

14 devour   

v.吞没；贪婪地注视或谛听，贪读；使着迷

参考例句：

• Larger fish devour the smaller ones.大鱼吃小鱼。
• Beauty is but a flower which wrinkle will devour.美只不过是一朵，终会被皱纹所吞噬。

15 wary   

adj.谨慎的，机警的，小心的

参考例句：

• He is wary of telling secrets to others.他谨防向他人泄露秘密。
• Paula frowned,suddenly wary.宝拉皱了皱眉头，突然警惕起来。

16 rape   

n.抢夺，掠夺，强奸；vt.掠夺，抢夺，强奸

参考例句：

• The rape of the countryside had a profound ravage on them.对乡村的掠夺给他们造成严重创伤。
• He was brought to court and charged with rape.他被带到法庭并被指控犯有强奸罪。

17 stifling   

a.令人窒息的

参考例句：

• The weather is stifling. It looks like rain. 今天太闷热，光景是要下雨。
• We were stifling in that hot room with all the windows closed. 我们在那间关着窗户的热屋子里，简直透不过气来。