美国国家公共电台 NPR From Ancient Greece, Lessons On The Risk Of A Modern, Accidental War

 

RACHEL MARTIN, HOST:

What is the most serious threat to the U.S., a resurgent Russia, Islamic State terrorism, a nuclear Iran? Maybe it's none of the above. It could be something called the Thucydides Trap. NPR national security correspondent Greg Myre explains.

GREG MYRE, BYLINE: To consider the dangers in America's future, let's go back more than 2,000 years to ancient Greece. Sparta with the established power, but Athens was rising fast. Sparta wanted to preserve its status, while Athens felt it should be dominant. The result was a disastrous conflict that ravaged both sides in the Peloponnesian War. The writer Thucydides summed it up this way.

GRAHAM ALLISON: "It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made the war inevitable."

MYRE: He's being quoted here by Harvard professor Graham Allison, who says this insight remains relevant. It's only the players that change. Today, China is rising. The U.S. is the reigning superpower. Allison puts it like this.

ALLISON: When a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, stuff happens, bad stuff. So alarm bells should sound extreme danger ahead.

MYRE: Allison calls this the Thucydides Trap. He made a splash with this idea a couple years ago and has a book coming out this month. He studied 16 cases of rising powers challenging ruling powers over the past five centuries. Twelve times, the result was war. In the other four, conflict was avoided but only with concessions by both sides. Here's what he's watching now.

ALLISON: Today, North Korea, Cuban missile crisis in slow motion.

MYRE: Like that 1962 drama between the U.S. and the Soviet Union, North Korea is a potential flashpoint between the U.S. and China. North Korea is working on a missile that could reach the U.S. It could achieve this at some point in President Trump's term.

The president says he won't allow it and has warned of possible military action. But a U.S. strike would rattle China, which has long propped up North Korea. Allison says the collapse of the North Korean regime could create a mad dash between the U.S. and Chinese militaries to secure that country's nuclear arsenal.

ALLISON: And I think that's one scenario for getting Americans and Chinese fighting each other.

MYRE: Now, before we go further, we need to issue a disclaimer on grand strategic theories. They're not always right, not by a long shot. Journalist and author John Pomfret has followed China's rise since going there as a student in 1980.

His recent book documents more than two centuries of the U.S.-China relationship. He believes trade and other ties are a counterweight that's likely to keep the U.S.-China competition from turning into a military conflict.

JOHN POMFRET: That integration, and it's not just economic. It's also cultural, educational, as well. I think that mitigates significantly against this idea that, oh, conflict between these two great powers is inevitable.

MYRE: Still, Thucydides has shown remarkable staying power as a military analyst. Here's Trump's national security adviser, H.R. McMaster, talking about him last November.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

H R MCMASTER: In the 1990s, I mean, it became conventional wisdom - right? - that future war was going to be great. It was going to be fast, cheap, efficient. It didn't acknowledge war's enduring political danger, the fact that people fight for the same reasons Thucydides identified 2,500 years ago - fear, honor and interest.

MYRE: And if these theories sound too wonky, you can always get strategic guidance from that classic 1987 movie "The Princess Bride."

(SOUNDBITE OF FILM, "THE PRINCESS BRIDE")

WALLACE SHAWN: (As Vizzini) You fool, you fell victim to one of the classic blunders. The most famous is never get involved in a land war in Asia.

MYRE: So there's that to consider, as well. Greg Myre, NPR News, Washington.