美国国家公共电台 NPR Michael Specter: What Happens When We Ignore Scientific Consensus?

 

GUY RAZ, HOST:

It's the TED¹ Radio Hour from NPR. I'm Guy Raz. And on the show today, ideas about truth, lies and denial. I want to start by asking about this word denialism. What is it - what's your definition of it?

MICHAEL SPECTER: Denialism is something that is kind of rejecting an obvious truth for a much more comfortable lie.

RAZ: This is Michael Specter. He's a staff writer at The New Yorker and the author of a book called "Denialism."

SPECTER: I tend to write about science in society, often genetics, sometimes the environment, public health.

RAZ: Actually, to be more specific, he writes a lot about climate change, vaccines³ and GMOs. So you can imagine what his email inbox looks like. And when Michael gave his TED talk back in 2010, he was really mad. He was mad about all the denialism out there.

(SOUNDBITE OF TED TALK)

SPECTER: People wrap themselves in their beliefs. And they do it so tightly that you can't set them free. Not even the truth will set them free. And listen, everyone's entitled to their opinion. They're even entitled to their opinion about progress. But you know what you're not entitled to? You're not entitled to your own facts. Sorry, you're not. And this took me a while...

RAZ: This talk actually ends on kind of a hopeful note that things are going to get better, that people are going to agree on facts again. But if you ask Michael today, seven years later...

SPECTER: Oh, I think it's much worse today. I don't see how we couldn't say it's worse than it was when I gave that talk. And that, to me, is very distressing⁴.

RAZ: Here's more of Michael Specter from the TED stage.

(SOUNDBITE OF TED TALK)

SPECTER: Vaccines, modern medicine, our ability to feed billions of people, those are triumphs of the scientific method. And to my mind, the scientific method is one of the great accomplishments⁵ of humanity. A kid born in New Delhi today can expect to live as long as the richest man in the world did 100 years ago. I mean, think about that. It's an incredible thought.

And why is it true? Smallpox⁶. Smallpox killed billions of people on this planet. It's gone. It's vanished. We vanquished⁷ it. In the rich world, diseases that threatened millions of us just a generation ago, no longer exist hardly. Diphtheria, rubella, polio, does anyone even know what those things are? But here's the thing that keeps me up at night.

We're on the verge⁸ of amazing, amazing events in many fields. And yet, I actually think we'd have to go back hundreds, 300 years, before the Enlightenment to find a time when we battled progress, when we fought about these things more vigorously and on more fronts than we do now. This guy was a hero, Jonas Salk. He took one of the worst scourges⁹ of mankind away from us - polio, poof, gone. That guy in the middle, not so much.

His name is Paul Offit. He just developed a rotavirus vaccine² with a bunch of other people. It'll save the lives of 400, 500,000 kids in the developing world every year. Pretty good, right? Well, it's good, except that Paul goes around talking about vaccines and says how valuable they are. When Paul speaks in a public hearing, he can't testify without armed guards.

He gets called at home because people like to tell them that they remember where his kids go to school. And why? Because Paul made a vaccine.

RAZ: Let's talk about facts for a moment. What are the facts about vaccines, about the measles¹⁰ vaccine, the MMR vaccine, the polio vaccine? What are the facts about them?

SPECTER: The facts are that in general, they are incredibly, incredibly safe. And that if you gave 100 million children the basic set of vaccines and then you took 100 million children and didn't get them, enormous numbers of the unvaccinated would be sick and die. And the ones who were vaccinated¹² would be fine. Now, if you vaccinate¹¹ 100 million people, a couple people's immune system are going to go haywire as a result.

For those people and for their parents, that's a tragedy. And it is ridiculous to pretend it isn't. But it's also ridiculous not to do the math, which includes a numerator and a denominator because when you talk about vaccines, you have to say, is there a risk? And the answer is always yes. But you also have to ask what the risk of not doing things is. And the risk of not doing something like vaccinating¹³ your children is enormous.

RAZ: So there are millions of people who take issue with this idea that vaccines are safe, who have the same access to all the data and facts that you have and I have but who have come to a completely different conclusion. So what explains it? Why?

SPECTER: Well, I think we have to step away just from vaccines. I think this is true in many areas of life now. And people can see radically¹⁴ different things and take radically different things out of the same data. And part of it is fear. I think we're afraid of losing control of our world. People are anxious that they can't control their lives. And so they want to say no.

RAZ: Do you think that - I mean, often times people who deny things that you might view as just painfully obvious truths, they claim to be skeptics. And skepticism is a widely accepted, you know, scientific perspective.

SPECTER: It's a requirement.

RAZ: Yeah.

SPECTER: The problem with skepticism is it's getting a bad name. Skepticism is questioning - the scientific method is one in which you try things out and then you try to poke¹⁵ holes in it. And you assume you will be able to poke holes in it. And if you do, then, great, this doesn't work. And if it does work, you use that until you find something better. And for the last 400 years, that system, it has brought us the modern world. It has - the changes are very dramatic and we sometimes act as if things are getting worse. And they're not.

RAZ: Like, for example, when it comes to genetically¹⁶ engineered foods or GMOs, it's another topic where Michael says the scientific consensus¹⁷ is pretty clear.

(SOUNDBITE OF TED TALK)

SPECTER: Every single thing we eat, every grain of rice, every sprig of parsley, every Brussels sprout¹⁸ has been modified by man. You know, there weren't tangerines in the Garden of Eden. There wasn't any cantaloupe. There weren't Christmas trees. We made it all. We made it over the last 11,000 years. And some of it worked and some of it didn't. We got rid of the stuff that didn't. Now we can do it in a more precise way.

And there are risks, absolutely. But why are we fighting it? Well, the things I constantly hear are too many chemicals, pesticides¹⁹, hormones²⁰. We don't want companies patenting life. We don't want companies owning seeds. And you know what my response to all of that is? Yes, you're right. Let's fix it. It's true. We've got a huge food problem. But this isn't science.

This has nothing to do with science. It's law, it's morality, it's patent stuff. The idea that we should not allow science to do its job because we're afraid is really very deadening. And it's preventing millions of people from prospering²¹.

I have students at Bard²² College where I sometimes teach. And the first question I ever ask any of them is how many of you try to avoid eating GMOs? And they pretty much all raise their hands. And I say, fine. And then I say, how many of you have heard of vitamin A rice? It's a rice that's been infused with a vitamin it doesn't have. And if it is fed to hundreds of thousands and millions of kids in Southeast Asia and Africa, they wouldn't go blind.

And that is not owned by any company. The patent is free. There is no profit-making motive²³ attached to it in any way whatsoever²⁴. And when I ask students what they think about that, they all say, wow, that's great. So I say, fine, well, now we're all pro-GMO in this class. And we have to work out the details.

RAZ: I mean, it seems like a lot of mistrust and denialism and projection²⁵ of science isn't really about the science at all. But it's more about rejecting authority and institutions and power.

SPECTER: Yeah, I think that's true. And I think that's understandable. People have been lied to. They know that corporations don't always tell the truth. They know that governments don't always tell the truth. But I also think there's a solution. And it's a very difficult solution, but it's the only solution, which is education. And I hate to pick on scientists because I spend a lot of time around them.

They don't reach out very much. I mean, I've been writing about this for now decades. And if there's one thing I can promise you, facts are not enough. They don't - I won't say they don't matter. But they're not enough. You need to connect with people on a basic level about things. And when you do that, they respond. But we don't sit down and talk to them. We just preach.

RAZ: Michael Specter. He writes for The New Yorker. His book is called "Denialism." You can see his entire talk at ted.com.

(SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC)

1 ted   

vt.翻晒，撒，撒开

参考例句：

• The invaders gut ted the village.侵略者把村中财物洗劫一空。
• She often teds the corn when it's sunny.天好的时候她就翻晒玉米。

2 vaccine   

n.牛痘苗，疫苗；adj.牛痘的，疫苗的

参考例句：

• The polio vaccine has saved millions of lives.脊髓灰质炎疫苗挽救了数以百万计的生命。
• She takes a vaccine against influenza every fall.她每年秋季接种流感疫苗。

3 vaccines   

疫苗，痘苗( vaccine的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• His team are at the forefront of scientific research into vaccines. 他的小组处于疫苗科研的最前沿。
• The vaccines were kept cool in refrigerators. 疫苗放在冰箱中冷藏。

4 distressing   

a.使人痛苦的

参考例句：

• All who saw the distressing scene revolted against it. 所有看到这种悲惨景象的人都对此感到难过。
• It is distressing to see food being wasted like this. 这样浪费粮食令人痛心。

5 accomplishments   

n.造诣；完成( accomplishment的名词复数 )；技能；成绩；成就

参考例句：

• It was one of the President's greatest accomplishments. 那是总统最伟大的成就之一。
• Among her accomplishments were sewing,cooking,playing the piano and dancing. 她的才能包括缝纫、烹调、弹钢琴和跳舞。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》

6 smallpox   

n.天花

参考例句：

• In 1742 he suffered a fatal attack of smallpox.1742年，他染上了致命的天花。
• Were you vaccinated against smallpox as a child?你小时候打过天花疫苗吗？

7 vanquished   

v.征服( vanquish的过去式和过去分词 )；战胜；克服；抑制

参考例句：

• She had fought many battles, vanquished many foes. 她身经百战，挫败过很多对手。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• I vanquished her coldness with my assiduity. 我对她关心照顾从而消除了她的冷淡。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》

8 verge   

n.边，边缘；v.接近，濒临

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• She was on the verge of bursting into tears.她快要哭出来了。

9 scourges   

带来灾难的人或东西，祸害( scourge的名词复数 )； 鞭子

参考例句：

• Textile workers suffer from three scourges -- noise, dust and humidity. 纱厂工人的三大威胁，就是音响、尘埃和湿气。 来自汉英文学 - 现代散文
• Believe, if Internet remains great scourges, also won't have present dimensions. 相信，如果互联网仍然是洪水猛兽，也不会有现在的规模。

10 measles   

n.麻疹，风疹，包虫病，痧子

参考例句：

• The doctor is quite definite about Tom having measles.医生十分肯定汤姆得了麻疹。
• The doctor told her to watch out for symptoms of measles.医生叫她注意麻疹出现的症状。

11 vaccinate   

vt.给…接种疫苗；种牛痘

参考例句：

• Local health officials then can plan the best times to vaccinate people.这样，当地的卫生官员就可以安排最佳时间给人们接种疫苗。
• Doctors vaccinate us so that we do not catch smallpox.医生给我们打预防针使我们不会得天花。

12 vaccinated   

[医]已接种的，种痘的，接种过疫菌的

参考例句：

• I was vaccinated against tetanus. 我接种了破伤风疫苗。
• Were you vaccinated against smallpox as a child? 你小时候打过天花疫苗吗？

13 vaccinating   

给…接种疫苗( vaccinate的现在分词 )； 注射疫苗，接种疫苗

参考例句：

• At first blush, vaccinating the wolves against rabies seems a simple solution. 乍一看来，为狼群注射防狂犬病疫苗是一种简单的办法。
• Also vaccinating children against misers (measles) has saved many lives. 还有，给儿童进行疫苗接种防止麻疹也挽救了许多生命。

14 radically   

ad.根本地，本质地

参考例句：

• I think we may have to rethink our policies fairly radically. 我认为我们可能要对我们的政策进行根本的反思。
• The health service must be radically reformed. 公共医疗卫生服务必须进行彻底改革。

15 poke   

n.刺，戳，袋；vt.拨开，刺，戳；vi.戳，刺，捅，搜索，伸出，行动散慢

参考例句：

• We never thought she would poke her nose into this.想不到她会插上一手。
• Don't poke fun at me.别拿我凑趣儿。

16 genetically   

adv.遗传上

参考例句：

• All the bees in the colony are genetically related. 同一群体的蜜蜂都有亲缘关系。
• Genetically modified foods have already arrived on American dinner tables. 经基因改造加工过的食物已端上了美国人的餐桌。 来自英汉非文学 - 生命科学 - 基因与食物

17 consensus   

n.(意见等的)一致，一致同意，共识

参考例句：

• Can we reach a consensus on this issue?我们能在这个问题上取得一致意见吗？
• What is the consensus of opinion at the afternoon meeting?下午会议上一致的意见是什么？

18 sprout   

n.芽，萌芽；vt.使发芽，摘去芽；vi.长芽，抽条

参考例句：

• When do deer first sprout horns?鹿在多大的时候开始长出角？
• It takes about a week for the seeds to sprout.这些种子大约要一周后才会发芽。

19 pesticides   

n.杀虫剂( pesticide的名词复数 )；除害药物

参考例句：

• vegetables grown without the use of pesticides 未用杀虫剂种植的蔬菜
• There is a lot of concern over the amount of herbicides and pesticides used in farming. 人们对农业上灭草剂和杀虫剂的用量非常担忧。 来自《简明英汉词典》

20 hormones   

n. 荷尔蒙，激素 名词hormone的复数形式

参考例句：

• This hormone interacts closely with other hormones in the body. 这种荷尔蒙与体內其他荷尔蒙紧密地相互作用。
• The adrenals produce a large per cent of a man's sex hormones. 肾上腺分泌人体的大部分性激素。

21 prospering   

成功，兴旺( prosper的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• Our country is thriving and prospering day by day. 祖国日益繁荣昌盛。
• His business is prospering. 他生意兴隆。

22 bard   

n.吟游诗人

参考例句：

• I'll use my bard song to help you concentrate!我会用我的吟游诗人歌曲帮你集中精神！
• I find him,the wandering grey bard.我发现了正在徘徊的衰老游唱诗人。

23 motive   

n.动机，目的；adv.发动的，运动的

参考例句：

• The police could not find a motive for the murder.警察不能找到谋杀的动机。
• He had some motive in telling this fable.他讲这寓言故事是有用意的。

24 whatsoever   

adv.（用于否定句中以加强语气）任何；pron.无论什么

参考例句：

• There's no reason whatsoever to turn down this suggestion.没有任何理由拒绝这个建议。
• All things whatsoever ye would that men should do to you,do ye even so to them.你想别人对你怎样，你就怎样对人。

25 projection   

n.发射，计划，突出部分

参考例句：

• Projection takes place with a minimum of awareness or conscious control.投射在最少的知觉或意识控制下发生。
• The projection of increases in number of house-holds is correct.对户数增加的推算是正确的。