美国国家公共电台 NPR Anab Jain: Can A Glimpse Of Tomorrow, Change Our Decisions Today?

 

GUY RAZ, HOST:

It's the TED¹ Radio Hour from NPR. I'm Guy Raz.

So imagine being able to go into the future just to, you know, get a glimpse of what things might be like. And say you walk into a home.

ANAB JAIN: It's a small apartment, really small.

RAZ: And at first, things feel pretty familiar.

JAIN: There's a radio show going on.

(SOUNDBITE OF FAINT, UNINTELLIGIBLE² AUDIO)

JAIN: There are newspapers. There's a sofa. There are some lights. And then you start listening to the radio show, and you start hearing about, you know, shipping³ lanes being closed because of Arctic icebergs⁴ melting. You know, you start to understand that this is sounding slightly unfamiliar⁵.

(SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC)

JAIN: And then you walk through what feels like a sort of a maze⁶ corridor. But this is basically got the sound of a drone, like (imitating drone buzzing) buzzing sound - and, like, musical sound of water drops. And this is basically an elaborate contraption of fogponic machines, which are basically metal stacks, and they use fog - so not even soil or water - to grow food.

And you walk out. You see the cityscape outside. You see a bit of unrest. You see some protests. And the idea that we want to give people is that you walk in feeling like everything's fine, then you go through a moment of feeling real fear and anxiety as you begin to see the evidences that suggest that the world has gone completely crazy.

(SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC)

RAZ: But actually, it hasn't - at least not yet anyway - because that whole thing - it's a simulation of the future in the present, and it's run by Anab Jain.

JAIN: So my name is Anab Jain. And I am a designer and co-founder of a London-based design studio, Superflux.

RAZ: So her job is basically to scare you, to game out what the future might look like, a future with climate change and social inequality, government surveillance and even food scarcity⁷. And Anab thinks that experiencing those futures⁸ can shake us out of our complacency.

JAIN: So we create concrete prototypes - films, media pieces, artifacts - that actually give people a very emotional, concrete experiential perspective of that future so you could actually touch a part of that future.

It means to think about possibilities. It means to be able to think about how and in what way might different potential futures unfold and what might it mean to make journeys into those futures. What might we see? What might we hear? What might we breathe even? And the idea being that embracing that sort of uncertainty⁹ that comes with going into different futures knowing that you might come across things you don't like or completely disagree with, means that you come back more aware of your present and more determined¹⁰ to make a difference.

(SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC)

RAZ: The stuff we've mostly thought of as science fiction is increasingly becoming a reality, equal parts inspiring and despairing. From data collection to gene¹¹ editing to artificial intelligence, all these things are getting better and faster and cheaper. And there's no going back. But if we wanted to, could we change the trajectory¹²? Well, on the show today, Future Consequences, ideas about the actions we take right now and the impact they'll have tomorrow and beyond.

(SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC)

RAZ: For Anab Jain the story we're writing for ourselves today, unless we're careful, might not have a happy ending.

JAIN: I kind of recently have been seeing a lot more messy, darker futures. But we are doing a lot of work around climate change. We're looking at food insecurities and what it would mean to live in a Western world where we are no longer having food on the go, buy one get one free from supermarkets - where we have moved into society which is opposed to abundance society. And in that particular future, what we are trying to do is figure out what it would mean to find the tools and the techniques to be able to not just combat that but to kind of live quite happily in that future. And so what we want to do now is we're thinking about visiting futures that can bring back hope or that can bring back tools to cope with that dystopia.

(SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC)

RAZ: Here's Anab Jain on the TED stage.

(SOUNDBITE OF TED TALK)

JAIN: Earlier this year, the government of the United Arab Emirates invited us to help them shape their country's energy strategy all the way up to 2050. Based on the government's econometric data, we created this large city model and visualized¹³ many possible futures on it.

So as I was excitably taking a group of government officials and members of energy companies through one sustainable future on our model, one of the participants told me, I cannot imagine that in the future, people will stop driving cars and start using public transport. And then he said, there's no way I can tell my own son to stop driving his car.

But we were prepared for this reaction. Working with scientists in a chemistry lab in my home city in India, we had created approximate samples of what the air would be like in 2030 if our behavior stays the same. And so I walked the group over to this object that emits vapor¹⁴ from those air samples. Just one whiff of the noxious¹⁵ polluted air from 2030 brought home the point that no amount of data can. This is not the future you would want your children to inherit. The next day, the government made a big announcement. They would be investing billions of dollars in renewables.

(SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC)

RAZ: Wait - they actually could breathe in what the air would...

JAIN: Yeah.

RAZ: ...Be like if they did this thing?

JAIN: Yeah, yeah.

RAZ: Wow. And so that was pretty dirty air, presumably.

JAIN: To be honest, it was almost too dangerous.

RAZ: Wow. And so you have these people breathing in this air. And they're saying, we do not want this.

JAIN: I think it played a part. I think there are many factors. Of course, there's a lot of data to suggest that we should not be polluting our planet. But quite often - well, most of the times, we don't seem to be doing anything about it.

RAZ: Yeah - because there's this disconnect - right? - between the things we know we have to do. Like why many people don't exercise, they don't eat well and the fact that we don't do them.

JAIN: Yeah. I think there are a few things at play. One is the idea that - the more data we have around us, I think we have cultivated a kind of a practice of data spectatorship. So we look at that data, and we look at beautiful visualizations. And we look at graphs, and we look at metrics. If we just become spectators, we don't kind of understand the deeper stories that need to be told around that data that actually connect directly to our lives. So there's a disconnect there.

(SOUNDBITE OF TED TALK)

JAIN: For a recent project called Drone Aviary¹⁶, we were interested in exploring what it would mean to live with drones in our cities. Let's imagine we are living in a city with drones like the Nightwatchman. It patrols the streets, often spotted¹⁷ in the evenings and at nights. Now, what if you could see the world through its eyes? See how it constantly logs every resident of our neighborhood, logging the kids who play football in the no-ballgame area and marking them as statutory nuisances. Its glaring presence is so overpowering, I can't help but stare at it. But it feels like each time I look at it, it knows a little more about me, like it keeps touching¹⁸ on these Ryanair adverts¹⁹ at me, as if it knows about the holiday I'm planning. I'm not sure if I find this mildly entertaining or just entirely²⁰ invasive.

Whilst drones like Nightwatchman, in these particular forms, are not real yet, most elements of our drone future are in fact very real today. For instance, facial recognition systems are everywhere - in our phones, even in our thermostats²¹ and in cameras around our cities - keeping a record of everything we do, whether it's an advertisement we glanced at or a protest we attended. These things are here, and we often don't understand how they work and what their consequences could be.

(SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC)

JAIN: So just a quick, like, a disclaimer before I go further is that this is a potential...

RAZ: Right, a scenario²². Right.

JAIN: ...Future. This is not a prediction. We are exploring one possibility. I imagine that alongside this kind of breadth of technological²³ acceleration²⁴, we have big challenges around climate change and social inequality. So if you sort of put these kind of big challenges together, which they will collide and intersect with each other, you'll probably find that, actually, you have a lot more weather uncertainty, you have food shortages. So you might be walking with your smartphone, but I don't know how much connectivity you'll have. People would be stealing food off each other. You know, there'd be those kind of challenges.

RAZ: Yeah, I mean - so let's talk about something that's very real now, especially in Western countries, which is income inequality. They're just huge and growing gaps between wealthy people and people who are struggling just to feed their families. I mean, how do you gain that out in the future? What does that future look like?

JAIN: Terrifying. I think that is actually one of the biggest challenges, I think, social inequality. And in fact, I hate to use that term as well because I don't think it's the right way of describing the situation we've found ourselves in. Because of climate change, I think those who have the least power to affect the future are going to be the worst affected²⁵. And you're seeing that. You're seeing some of the biggest swaths of people are being forced to emigrate and migrate in war-torn regions. A lot of the background around those conflicts is climate change related. So if you're going to find that those who have the power and those who have the capacity to stay out of these conflicts will be the most powerful. But increasingly, majority of the people will be swept into this conflict around social inequality.

RAZ: You know, I think about all these consequences and of the decisions and actions that we take today. And - I have to admit, I feel somewhat disempowered, and I have a platform. I mean, I have this show...

JAIN: Yeah.

RAZ: ...And you have a platform. And...

JAIN: Yeah.

RAZ: ...Yet, I feel powerless. Do you know what I mean? It's almost like - there's almost a paralysis²⁶. Like, you think about it. You know these things are happening. And you think, I don't know what to do.

JAIN: This is a - you know when I was saying this is totally - I feel that all the time. And I think, you know, the real challenge here is to understand where power lies - because once we begin to understand that, we can understand it in relation to our powerlessness and that actually every individual does have some power. We do have the power of our voice, of our work, of the decisions we make, of the things we choose not to buy. I think it's just because those small actions have not been quantified to mean anything. But they do.

(SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC)

RAZ: Anab Jain is a designer and co-founder of the London-based design studio Superflux. You can see her full talk at ted.com.

In a moment, don't freak out just yet because we'll hear how leaps in technology could mean a better life for all of us. I'm Guy Raz, and you're listening to the TED Radio Hour from NPR.

(SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC)

1 ted   

vt.翻晒，撒，撒开

参考例句：

• The invaders gut ted the village.侵略者把村中财物洗劫一空。
• She often teds the corn when it's sunny.天好的时候她就翻晒玉米。

2 unintelligible   

adj.无法了解的，难解的，莫明其妙的

参考例句：

• If a computer is given unintelligible data, it returns unintelligible results.如果计算机得到的是难以理解的数据，它给出的也将是难以理解的结果。
• The terms were unintelligible to ordinary folk.这些术语一般人是不懂的。

3 shipping   

n.船运（发货，运输，乘船）

参考例句：

• We struck a bargain with an American shipping firm.我们和一家美国船运公司谈成了一笔生意。
• There's a shipping charge of ￡5 added to the price.价格之外另加五英镑运输费。

4 icebergs   

n.冰山，流冰( iceberg的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The drift of the icebergs in the sea endangers the ships. 海上冰山的漂流危及船只的安全。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The icebergs towered above them. 冰山高耸于他们上方。 来自辞典例句

5 unfamiliar   

adj.陌生的，不熟悉的

参考例句：

• I am unfamiliar with the place and the people here.我在这儿人地生疏。
• The man seemed unfamiliar to me.这人很面生。

6 maze   

n.迷宫，八阵图，混乱，迷惑

参考例句：

• He found his way through the complex maze of corridors.他穿过了迷宮一样的走廊。
• She was lost in the maze for several hours.一连几小时，她的头脑处于一片糊涂状态。

7 scarcity   

n.缺乏，不足，萧条

参考例句：

• The scarcity of skilled workers is worrying the government.熟练工人的缺乏困扰着政府。
• The scarcity of fruit was caused by the drought.水果供不应求是由于干旱造成的。

8 futures   

n.期货，期货交易

参考例句：

• He continued his operations in cotton futures.他继续进行棉花期货交易。
• Cotton futures are selling at high prices.棉花期货交易的卖价是很高的。

9 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

10 determined   

adj.坚定的；有决心的

参考例句：

• I have determined on going to Tibet after graduation.我已决定毕业后去西藏。
• He determined to view the rooms behind the office.他决定查看一下办公室后面的房间。

11 gene   

n.遗传因子，基因

参考例句：

• A single gene may have many effects.单一基因可能具有很多种效应。
• The targeting of gene therapy has been paid close attention.其中基因治疗的靶向性是值得密切关注的问题之一。

12 trajectory   

n.弹道，轨道

参考例句：

• It is not difficult to sketch the subsequent trajectory.很容易描绘出它们最终的轨迹。
• The path followed by a projectile is called its trajectory.抛物体所循的路径称为它的轨道。

13 visualized   

直观的，直视的

参考例句：

• I had visualized scientists as bearded old men. 我曾经把科学家想像成长满胡子的老人。
• "I visualized mangled and inadequate branches for my fires. 我想像中出现了砍得乱七八糟的树枝子，供不上壁炉烧的。 来自名作英译部分

14 vapor   

n.蒸汽，雾气

参考例句：

• The cold wind condenses vapor into rain.冷风使水蒸气凝结成雨。
• This new machine sometimes transpires a lot of hot vapor.这部机器有时排出大量的热气。

15 noxious   

adj.有害的，有毒的；使道德败坏的，讨厌的

参考例句：

• Heavy industry pollutes our rivers with noxious chemicals.重工业产生的有毒化学品会污染我们的河流。
• Many household products give off noxious fumes.很多家用产品散发有害气体。

16 aviary   

n.大鸟笼，鸟舍

参考例句：

• There are many different kinds of birds in the aviary.大鸟笼里有很多不同种类的鸟。
• There was also an aviary full of rare birds.那里面还有装满稀有鸟类的鸟舍。

17 spotted   

adj.有斑点的，斑纹的，弄污了的

参考例句：

• The milkman selected the spotted cows,from among a herd of two hundred.牛奶商从一群200头牛中选出有斑点的牛。
• Sam's shop stocks short spotted socks.山姆的商店屯积了有斑点的短袜。

18 touching   

adj.动人的，使人感伤的

参考例句：

• It was a touching sight.这是一幅动人的景象。
• His letter was touching.他的信很感人。

19 adverts   

advertisements 广告，做广告

参考例句：

• the adverts on television 电视广告
• The adverts are not very informative. 这些广告并没有包含太多有用信息。

20 entirely   

ad.全部地，完整地；完全地，彻底地

参考例句：

• The fire was entirely caused by their neglect of duty. 那场火灾完全是由于他们失职而引起的。
• His life was entirely given up to the educational work. 他的一生统统献给了教育工作。

21 thermostats   

n.恒温（调节）器( thermostat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• This is the basic operating principle of many thermostats. 这是许多恒温箱的基本工作原理。 来自辞典例句
• Thermostats can be used to regulate the temperature of a room. 恒温器可用来调节室内温度。 来自辞典例句

22 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。

23 technological   

adj.技术的；工艺的

参考例句：

• A successful company must keep up with the pace of technological change.一家成功的公司必须得跟上技术变革的步伐。
• Today,the pace of life is increasing with technological advancements.当今， 随着科技进步，生活节奏不断增快。

24 acceleration   

n.加速，加速度

参考例句：

• All spacemen must be able to bear acceleration.所有太空人都应能承受加速度。
• He has also called for an acceleration of political reforms.他同时呼吁加快政治改革的步伐。

25 affected   

adj.不自然的，假装的

参考例句：

• She showed an affected interest in our subject.她假装对我们的课题感到兴趣。
• His manners are affected.他的态度不自然。

26 paralysis   

n.麻痹(症)；瘫痪(症)

参考例句：

• The paralysis affects his right leg and he can only walk with difficulty.他右腿瘫痪步履维艰。
• The paralysis affects his right leg and he can only walk with difficulty.他右腿瘫痪步履维艰。