美国国家公共电台 NPR Auto Industry Healthy Enough To Withstand Next Downturn, Analysts Say

 

DAVID GREENE, HOST:

2017 was yet another good year for the auto¹ industry, but this year may not be as strong. Automakers report February sales today, and analysts³ are predicting sales will remain flat after years of strong growth. But NPR's Sonari Glinton reports that the auto industry is in better shape to survive the next economic downturn.

SONARI GLINTON, BYLINE⁴: Things have been good in the car industry for quite a while. 2017 was one of the best years ever, but it was a comedown from all-time records.

MARK SCARPELLI: I can tell you that coming off a plateau in the last couple years for sure.

GLINTON: That's Mark Scarpelli. Now, he runs the Raymond Auto Group, a group of dealerships in the Chicago suburbs, with his father Raymond Sr. and his brother Raymond Jr. Scarpelli says with the forecast for slowing sales for 2018, normally he'd be worried. But he says the car companies are making much more money off of each car. They cut labor⁶ costs. They're more efficient. All that has caught on, he says.

SCARPELLI: Same could go for local automobile⁷ dealers⁵ such as ours. We have made sure that we keep our budgets in line - marketing⁸, inventory⁹, handling costs. You know, we carry what we need. We don't go in excess to carry things on our lot.

GLINTON: Scarpelli says one of the reasons the industry is doing well is that the customers are buying SUV and trucks, and those are really profitable.

SCARPELLI: You know, there has been a seismic¹⁰ change in our industry in people's wants and needs. You know, a few years back, the sedan or a coupe was quite popular.

GLINTON: All that cash coming in from SUVs and trucks means that employees of General Motors, Ford¹¹ and Fiat¹² Chrysler group all took home fat profit-sharing checks. Kristin Dziczek is with the Center for Automotive Research.

KRISTIN DZICZEK: I'm just going to pull up my profit-sharing spreadsheet here, if you don't mind, to put it in some perspective of where we've been over time. Just take a second here - sorry.

GLINTON: OK, while she looks for the answer, it's actually $11,750 for General Motors assembly line workers. And that represents about 30 percent of their salary for the lower paid workers. But those are not higher wages. Dziczek says holding down salaries and relying on profit-sharing means that the companies can cut costs or make changes in production without resorting first to massive layoffs¹³. Dziczek says there are a whole list of things to be worried about in the near future. Consumer credit appears to be slowing, and the default rate on auto loans is rising, and gas prices are at their highest since 2014, and that could hurt an industry increasingly dependent on SUVs and trucks. Despite all that, Dziczek says about the car companies...

DZICZEK: They're much, much more ready to weather a downturn in automotive sales.

GLINTON: Jessica Caldwell is an analyst² with edmunds.com. She says the car companies have become nimbler and more responsive to consumer tastes. Caldwell says today's SUVs are more fuel efficient, making them more immune to the price at the pump. She says car companies are in a very good position to survive a downturn or even a recession. But coming changes in technology, the self-driving car thing, that could be a whole different story.

JESSICA CALDWELL: And now we're looking at something that's so much larger. You know, can my business essentially¹⁴ stay relevant in the next two decades? Which I don't think was ever a fear in the past 20 years.

GLINTON: Apparently¹⁵, the car business can't take anything for granted - not anymore.

Sonari Glinton, NPR News.

(SOUNDBITE OF TIDES FROM NEBULA'S "HIGGS BOSON")

1 auto   

n.(=automobile)(口语)汽车

参考例句：

• Don't park your auto here.别把你的汽车停在这儿。
• The auto industry has brought many people to Detroit.汽车工业把许多人吸引到了底特律。

2 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

3 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

4 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

5 dealers   

n.商人( dealer的名词复数 )；贩毒者；毒品贩子；发牌者

参考例句：

• There was fast bidding between private collectors and dealers. 私人收藏家和交易商急速竞相喊价。
• The police were corrupt and were operating in collusion with the drug dealers. 警察腐败，与那伙毒品贩子内外勾结。

6 labor   

n.劳动，努力，工作，劳工；分娩；vi.劳动，努力，苦干；vt.详细分析；麻烦

参考例句：

• We are never late in satisfying him for his labor.我们从不延误付给他劳动报酬。
• He was completely spent after two weeks of hard labor.艰苦劳动两周后，他已经疲惫不堪了。

7 automobile   

n.汽车，机动车

参考例句：

• He is repairing the brake lever of an automobile.他正在修理汽车的刹车杆。
• The automobile slowed down to go around the curves in the road.汽车在路上转弯时放慢了速度。

8 marketing   

n.行销，在市场的买卖，买东西

参考例句：

• They are developing marketing network.他们正在发展销售网络。
• He often goes marketing.他经常去市场做生意。

9 inventory   

n.详细目录，存货清单

参考例句：

• Some stores inventory their stock once a week.有些商店每周清点存货一次。
• We will need to call on our supplier to get more inventory.我们必须请供应商送来更多存货。

10 seismic   

a.地震的，地震强度的

参考例句：

• Earthquakes produce two types of seismic waves.地震产生两种地震波。
• The latest seismic activity was also felt in northern Kenya.肯尼亚北部也感觉到了最近的地震活动。

11 Ford   

n.浅滩，水浅可涉处；v.涉水，涉过

参考例句：

• They were guarding the bridge,so we forded the river.他们驻守在那座桥上，所以我们只能涉水过河。
• If you decide to ford a stream,be extremely careful.如果已决定要涉过小溪，必须极度小心。

12 fiat   

n.命令，法令，批准；vt.批准，颁布

参考例句：

• The opening of a market stall is governed by municipal fiat.开设市场摊位受市政法令管制。
• He has tried to impose solutions to the country's problems by fiat.他试图下令强行解决该国的问题。

13 layoffs   

临时解雇( layoff的名词复数 )； 停工，停止活动

参考例句：

• Textile companies announced 2000 fresh layoffs last week. 各纺织公司上周宣布再次裁员两千人。
• Stock prices broke when the firm suddenly announced layoffs. 当公司突然宣布裁员时，股票价格便大跌

14 essentially   

adv.本质上，实质上，基本上

参考例句：

• Really great men are essentially modest.真正的伟人大都很谦虚。
• She is an essentially selfish person.她本质上是个自私自利的人。

15 apparently   

adv.显然地；表面上，似乎

参考例句：

• An apparently blind alley leads suddenly into an open space.山穷水尽，豁然开朗。
• He was apparently much surprised at the news.他对那个消息显然感到十分惊异。