美国国家公共电台 NPR How Fast Did The Economy Grow? Forecasts Are All Over The Place

 

RACHEL MARTIN, HOST:

This coming Friday, the U.S. Commerce Department will release a report card on how the U.S. economy is doing. The second quarter gross domestic product, or GDP, is one of the most anticipated numbers this year. It's going to give us an early read on how big of an impact the president's tax cuts are having, for example. This year, though, forecasts for the number are all over the board. NPR's Jim Zarroli reports.

JIM ZARROLI, BYLINE¹: In the summer of 2008, economists³ at the New York Federal Reserve Bank saw something disturbing. The statistical⁴ model they used to predict where the economy was headed, called the Nowcast, was giving off warning signs. Fed economist² Andrea Tambalotti.

ANDREA TAMBALOTTI: All the data turned negative quite quickly and quite abruptly⁵ and the Nowcast picked that up. And when you see the Nowcast sort of plunging⁶, then you know that something is wrong.

ZARROLI: What was happening, of course, was the Great Recession, and the Nowcast gave Fed officials a little extra time to prepare for it. The Nowcast was once only released internally, but a couple of years ago, Fed officials began publishing it online.

TAMBALOTTI: We think that it's helpful for the public at large to see these numbers and understand what we do.

ZARROLI: As of this week, the Nowcast is predicting that the U.S. economy grew by a middling 2.7 percent during the second quarter. And then there's the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow. Like the others, it's compiled by crunching⁷ a lot of economic data, says Fed economist Pat Higgins.

PAT HIGGINS: So it'll be things like retail⁸ sales, international trade, manufacturing shipments.

ZARROLI: And right now, the Atlanta Fed's number is strikingly different than the New York Fed's. It's forecasting a blockbuster GDP of 4 1/2 percent. If you like President Trump⁹'s policies, that's the estimate you quote right now. Donald Trump Jr. bragged¹⁰ about the Atlanta Fed numbers on social media, and Treasury¹¹ Secretary Steve Mnuchin recently trumpeted¹² the Atlanta number on CNBC.

(SOUNDBITE OF CNBC BROADCAST)

STEVEN MNUCHIN: We're expecting a big second quarter GDP number.

ZARROLI: These aren't the only growth estimates being published. Major banks and private firms put out their own numbers. Obviously, all of these numbers can't be accurate, but Andrea Tambalotti says these estimates shouldn't be looked at as competing. Instead, he says, they complement¹³ each other.

TAMBALOTTI: We together can have a better sense of, you know, again, is the economy doing well or is the economy not doing so well? Which is what everybody in the end is really interested in.

ZARROLI: Tambalotti says the economy is enormous and ultimately unmeasurable. He says all of these forecasts should be seen as an imperfect baseline. Even the official GDP number released by the Commerce Department is intelligent speculation¹⁴, and it will be updated as new data comes in, says Pat Higgins.

HIGGINS: The initial numbers are based kind of on incomplete data, so, you know, a year or two from now, you know, the actual estimate could change a lot.

ZARROLI: In fact, the government can come back after a few years and revise the numbers. There have been times when the U.S. economy was actually in recession and no one knew for sure until much later. Still, the GDP report that comes out this Friday is the number that generates headlines and moves markets. Tambalotti calls it the custodian¹⁵ of the true number. And in a sense, that's the only number that matters. Jim Zarroli, NPR News.

[POST-BROADCAST CORRECTION: In the audio of this story, as well as in a previous Web version, we incorrectly say that the New York Federal Reserve Bank had used its Nowcast model to predict the 2008 financial crisis. In fact, the Nowcast was not created until after the Great Recession, but economists later determined¹⁶ that the model would have alerted them to the coming recession had it been used at the time.]

(SOUNDBITE OF MARCUS MILLER'S "DOWN TO THE HEARTH")

1 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

2 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

3 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

4 statistical   

adj.统计的，统计学的

参考例句：

• He showed the price fluctuations in a statistical table.他用统计表显示价格的波动。
• They're making detailed statistical analysis.他们正在做具体的统计分析。

5 abruptly   

adv.突然地，出其不意地

参考例句：

• He gestured abruptly for Virginia to get in the car.他粗鲁地示意弗吉尼亚上车。
• I was abruptly notified that a half-hour speech was expected of me.我突然被通知要讲半个小时的话。

6 plunging   

adj.跳进的，突进的v.颠簸( plunge的现在分词 )；暴跌；骤降；突降

参考例句：

• War broke out again, plunging the people into misery and suffering. 战祸复发，生灵涂炭。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• He is plunging into an abyss of despair. 他陷入了绝望的深渊。 来自《简明英汉词典》

7 crunching   

v.嘎吱嘎吱地咬嚼( crunch的现在分词 )；嘎吱作响；（快速大量地）处理信息；数字捣弄

参考例句：

• The horses were crunching their straw at their manger. 这些马在嘎吱嘎吱地吃槽里的草。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The dog was crunching a bone. 狗正嘎吱嘎吱地嚼骨头。 来自《简明英汉词典》

8 retail   

v./n.零售；adv.以零售价格

参考例句：

• In this shop they retail tobacco and sweets.这家铺子零售香烟和糖果。
• These shoes retail at 10 yuan a pair.这些鞋子零卖10元一双。

9 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

10 bragged   

v.自夸，吹嘘( brag的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• He bragged to his friends about the crime. 他向朋友炫耀他的罪行。
• Mary bragged that she could run faster than Jack. 玛丽夸口说她比杰克跑得快。 来自《简明英汉词典》

11 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

12 trumpeted   

大声说出或宣告（trumpet的过去式与过去分词形式）

参考例句：

• Soldiers trumpeted and bugled. 士兵们吹喇叭鸣号角。
• The radio trumpeted the presidential campaign across the country. 电台在全国范围大力宣传总统竞选运动。

13 complement   

n.补足物，船上的定员；补语；vt.补充，补足

参考例句：

• The two suggestions complement each other.这两条建议相互补充。
• They oppose each other also complement each other.它们相辅相成。

14 speculation   

n.思索，沉思；猜测；投机

参考例句：

• Her mind is occupied with speculation.她的头脑忙于思考。
• There is widespread speculation that he is going to resign.人们普遍推测他要辞职。

15 custodian   

n.保管人，监护人；公共建筑看守

参考例句：

• Benitez believes his custodian is among the top five in world football.贝尼特斯坚信他的门将是当今足坛最出色的五人之一。
• When his father died his uncle became his legal custodian.他父亲死后，他叔叔成了他的法定监护人。

16 determined   

adj.坚定的；有决心的

参考例句：

• I have determined on going to Tibet after graduation.我已决定毕业后去西藏。
• He determined to view the rooms behind the office.他决定查看一下办公室后面的房间。