美国国家公共电台 NPR U.S. Economy Surges To A 4.1 Percent Growth Pace In 2nd Quarter

 

NOEL KING, HOST:

President Trump¹ has been promising² that his economic policies are going to launch our economy into overdrive. He's even predicted the country will achieve about twice the growth rate of recent years, up around 4 percent sustained annual growth.

Now, many economists⁴ think we may actually see a blockbuster growth rate like this when we get the latest reading on the gross domestic product, or GDP, later this morning. NPR's Chris Arnold has been following all of this. He joins us now.

Hi, Chris.

CHRIS ARNOLD, BYLINE⁵: Good morning, Noel.

KING: All right. So why is this number so important?

ARNOLD: Well, a strong number coming right now - if it's up well above 3 percent annual growth, that would show that the economy is stronger than it's been in at least a few years. And there's also been some fanfare⁶ around this. The president was out yesterday saying, I'm expecting a big number. His treasury⁷ secretary was out a few weeks ago saying this is going to be a big number. So you know, there is some anticipation⁸.

And like you said, a lot of economists think that the stars have kind of aligned⁹ here over the past few months, and we very well may see a very impressive number. Ian Shepherdson is the chief economist³ with Pantheon Macroeconomics. He's anticipating a number up above 4.5 percent. That would be very big. Here's how he explains it.

IAN SHEPHERDSON: What's really happened here is a convergence of favorable factors, which, you know, sometimes happens - in any given quarter, anything can happen. And it just means that all the major components¹⁰ of GDP - so that's consumption, business spending, government spending, foreign trades - all those things together have gone in the right direction.

ARNOLD: Of course, the bigger question is, how long can things keep moving in the right direction that quickly?

KING: Right. OK. So when you talk to economists, what do they say about that?

ARNOLD: That's the big question. Of course, you know, if the U.S. economy really did sort of double in growth from 2 percent to 4 percent, that might sound like a small change. But it's really - it would be huge, as they say. I mean, it would mean living standards for many Americans, higher wages, better public services as the government raked in more taxes. But don't get too excited about this because most economists do not expect that to happen past this quarter, certainly growth not at 4 percent or anything like that.

KING: Which is deeply disappointing - why don't they expect more good news?

ARNOLD: You know, a bunch of factors are involved in this report that are sort of one-offs. Just one example of this is there's this kind of perverse¹¹ situation where we're in this trade fight with China. So ahead of tariffs¹² going into effect on soybeans, China bought tons and tons of soybeans, I mean, so many soybeans that it actually moved the scale on our overall economic growth.

KING: Wow.

ARNOLD: But now that the tariffs are in effect, that's going to reverse, right? And we're going to have a lot fewer, if any, soybeans going to China. So you know, that's going to be a drag instead of a boost - and several other factors like that that just mean that this is probably not going to be repeated.

KING: And what about the tax cut that was passed by Republicans? Is that contributing here?

ARNOLD: It does look like it's giving a boost to consumer spending. But the biggest impact from that happens, you know, right - or happened right when people started seeing these boosts to their paychecks. So that's already happened. We're not going to be getting a big raise in our pay month after month after month. So you know, we've probably seen the big hit from - the big boost from that in growth. So tax cuts, one-time distortions like the soybeans - one of the economists I talked to said this past quarter was like, quote, "a sugar high that probably won't last too long."

KING: (Laughter) NPR's Chris Arnold. Thanks so much, Chris.

ARNOLD: Thanks, Noel.

1 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

2 promising   

adj.有希望的，有前途的

参考例句：

• The results of the experiments are very promising.实验的结果充满了希望。
• We're trying to bring along one or two promising young swimmers.我们正设法培养出一两名有前途的年轻游泳选手。

3 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

4 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

5 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

6 fanfare   

n.喇叭；号角之声；v.热闹地宣布

参考例句：

• The product was launched amid much fanfare worldwide.这个产品在世界各地隆重推出。
• A fanfare of trumpets heralded the arrival of the King.嘹亮的小号声宣告了国王驾到。

7 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

8 anticipation   

n.预期，预料，期望

参考例句：

• We waited at the station in anticipation of her arrival.我们在车站等着，期待她的到来。
• The animals grew restless as if in anticipation of an earthquake.各种动物都变得焦躁不安，像是感到了地震即将发生。

9 aligned   

adj.对齐的，均衡的

参考例句：

• Make sure the shelf is aligned with the top of the cupboard.务必使搁架与橱柜顶端对齐。

10 components   

（机器、设备等的）构成要素，零件，成分； 成分( component的名词复数 )； [物理化学]组分； [数学]分量； （混合物的）组成部分

参考例句：

• the components of a machine 机器部件
• Our chemistry teacher often reduces a compound to its components in lab. 在实验室中化学老师常把化合物分解为各种成分。

11 perverse   

adj.刚愎的；坚持错误的，行为反常的

参考例句：

• It would be perverse to stop this healthy trend.阻止这种健康发展的趋势是没有道理的。
• She gets a perverse satisfaction from making other people embarrassed.她有一种不正常的心态，以使别人难堪来取乐。

12 tariffs   

关税制度； 关税( tariff的名词复数 )； 关税表； （旅馆或饭店等的）收费表； 量刑标准

参考例句：

• British industry was sheltered from foreign competition by protective tariffs. 保护性关税使英国工业免受国际竞争影响。
• The new tariffs have put a stranglehold on trade. 新的关税制对开展贸易极为不利。