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全新版大学英语听说教程第四册 unit12

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Unit 12

Part B

Opinion Polls

Man: Do you know the thing that's always struck me as odd about opinion polls?

Woman: What's that?

Man: The percentages. Like recently there was a survey about what people thought about traffic, and petrol prices, and public car parks. In some car parks it now costs something like 5 pounds to park a car for half an hour.

Woman: Yeah, but I don't see what you're getting at.

Man: What I mean is the percentages in the results. So there might be 70% of people who complained about high petrol prices, and 60% who want to see the traffic reduced, and 65% who think car park charges are too high. Does that mean that there are 35% who actually think the charges are OK and would even be prepared to pay more, and another 30% who think petrol prices are OK? I mean that's absurd. I don't know anyone who doesn't think they're too high.

Woman: Well, actually I think we should pay more.

Man: Come on, you're joking.

Woman: No, seriously. I think we should pay more for petrol, even twice as much maybe, and certainly far more for inner city car parks.

Man: But why?

Woman: More taxes should be charged on petrol, I think, to discourage people from using cars, and a kind of graded charging system for car parks depending on how far they are from the city center.

Man: What do you mean?

Woman: Well, if you park your car quite far from the city center then you pay a nominal1 amount as a kind of reward for not polluting the city center. Well, the closer you get to the center, the more you are penalized3. Prices in the center should be totally prohibitive. I mean with an efficient bus or tram service there's no excuse for using cars.

Man: Yeah, but you can't penalize2 people who don't use their car to go into town. I mean if you doubled the price of petrol, it would cost people a fortune to go anywhere, even on short trips, and especially on holidays.

Woman: Don't use your car then. Use a train.

Man: But what about lorries? I mean they use a lot of petrol to transport goods from one place to another.

Woman: So what's to stop these goods being transported by train or even via canal?

Man: Well, anyway, I still can't believe that 30% of those people who said car park charges were OK all think the same as you.

Woman: Well, maybe that's where you are wrong. Just think about what I've said and you'll realize that perhaps it's not so stupid as it sounds.

 

 

 

Questions:

 

1. What items are surveyed in the opinion poll mentioned in the conversation?

2. What does the man find absurd about the survey?

3. Which of the following best reflects the woman's view about car parking?

4. Which problem is the woman most concerned about according to the conversation?

5. Which of the following describes the man's attitude toward opinion polls?

 

   

Part C

How These Pollsters Do Those Polls

     Voters can become weary of polls as a campaign winds down, and in public, candidates invariably declare that they ignore them -- at least, the candidates who are losing. But the fact is, pollsters are good and getting better.

     Most election-eve polls in 1992 predicted the voting percentages eventually won by Clinton, Bush and Perot well within the sampling margin5 of error. Of some 300 such polls, none projected Bush or Perot as the winner.

     Typically, these polls are generated by telephone interviews with 600 to 1,000 "likely voters", who are 18 or older, as determined6 by answers to initial questions. The phone numbers are selected as random7 digits8 by a phone-dialing computer.

     Hypothetically, almost every person in America has an equal chance of being called since most households have phones. The samples may seem small, but the techniques used in polls are proven enough to be regularly accepted as evidence by the courts when election results are legally challenged. No sample is as accurate as interviewing 100 percent of the people in an election district, of course. A "sampling error" or "margin of error" accompanies every significant result. It is the largest possible difference that could exist between a random national sample and a poll that asked 200 million Americans the same questions. A 3 percent sampling error, for example, means that if a poll predicts that a candidate will get 45 percent of the vote, he may probably get 42 to 48 percent of the vote.

     Often, after a random sample is collected, it's compared with US Census9 statistics to determine the degree of agreement before the poll is finalized10. This can help polling professionals correct anomalies so that they can get clients that pay them the big bucks11.

     The "exit polls" that play a key part in election night drama in American homes are even more accurate than other forecasts because the specially4 trained interviewers are using respondents who are known voters.

 

 

 

 

Questions:

 

1. How is a typical election poll conducted in the US?

2. How large is the sample for a typical election poll?

3. If a poll shows a 50% support for a candidate with a 3% margin of error, what would be the probable percentage of support for him?

4. Why are "exit polls" especially accurate?

5. What is the passage mainly about?

 

Part D

Use of Public Opinion Polls

 

     Public opinion polls are regularly conducted and published in many countries. They measure not only support for political parties but also public opinion on a wide range of social and political issues. They are frequently published in major newspapers and are generally accepted as useful tools by businesses, political organizations, the mass media and government, and academic research groups. Hundreds of public polling firms operate around the world. The Gallup Poll and Harris Poll are among the best known in the US.

     In business, polls are used to test consumers' preferences and to discover what gives a product its appeal. Responses to commercial polls help businesses in planning marketing12 and advertising13 strategies and in making changes in a product to increase its sales.

     In politics, polls are used to obtain information about voters' attitudes toward issues and candidates, to put forward candidates with winning potential, and to plan campaigns. Polling organizations have also been successful in predicting the outcome of elections. By polling voters on Election Day, it is often possible to determine the probable winner even before the voting booths close.

     Newspapers, magazines, radio and television are heavy users of public opinion polling information, especially political information that helps to predict election results or measure the popularity of government officials and candidates. The public's attitude toward various social, economic, and international issues is also considered newsworthy.

     Governments use opinion polls to find out public sentiment about issues of interest. They also use polling methodology to determine unemployment rates, crime rates, and other social and economic indicators14.

     Opinion polls have also been employed extensively in academic research, particularly in the social sciences. They have been valuable in studying delinquency, socialization, political attitudes, and economic behavior. Among the prominent organizations that primarily serve academic research purposes are the Survey Research Center at the University of Michigan and the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago.

 

 

 

Questions:

 

1. By whom are public opinion polls generally accepted as useful tools?

2. For what are opinion polls used by businesses?

3. For what are opinion polls used in politics?

4. For what are opinion polls used by governments?

5. What new media are heavy users of the information from opinion polls?

6. For what are opinion polls used in academic research?


点击收听单词发音收听单词发音  

1 nominal Y0Tyt     
adj.名义上的;(金额、租金)微不足道的
参考例句:
  • The king was only the nominal head of the state. 国王只是这个国家名义上的元首。
  • The charge of the box lunch was nominal.午餐盒饭收费很少。
2 penalize nSfzm     
vt.对…处以刑罚,宣告…有罪;处罚
参考例句:
  • It would be unfair to penalize those without a job.失业人员待遇低下是不公平的。
  • The association decided not to penalize you for the race.赛马协会决定对你不予处罚。
3 penalized c88c37e7a177d0a347c36794aa587e91     
对…予以惩罚( penalize的过去式和过去分词 ); 使处于不利地位
参考例句:
  • You will be penalized for poor spelling. 你拼写不好将会受到处罚。
  • Team members will be penalized for lateness. 队员迟到要受处罚。
4 specially Hviwq     
adv.特定地;特殊地;明确地
参考例句:
  • They are specially packaged so that they stack easily.它们经过特别包装以便于堆放。
  • The machine was designed specially for demolishing old buildings.这种机器是专为拆毁旧楼房而设计的。
5 margin 67Mzp     
n.页边空白;差额;余地,余裕;边,边缘
参考例句:
  • We allowed a margin of 20 minutes in catching the train.我们有20分钟的余地赶火车。
  • The village is situated at the margin of a forest.村子位于森林的边缘。
6 determined duszmP     
adj.坚定的;有决心的
参考例句:
  • I have determined on going to Tibet after graduation.我已决定毕业后去西藏。
  • He determined to view the rooms behind the office.他决定查看一下办公室后面的房间。
7 random HT9xd     
adj.随机的;任意的;n.偶然的(或随便的)行动
参考例句:
  • The list is arranged in a random order.名单排列不分先后。
  • On random inspection the meat was found to be bad.经抽查,发现肉变质了。
8 digits a2aacbd15b619a9b9e5581a6c33bd2b1     
n.数字( digit的名词复数 );手指,足趾
参考例句:
  • The number 1000 contains four digits. 1000是四位数。 来自《简明英汉词典》
  • The number 410 contains three digits. 数字 410 中包括三个数目字。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
9 census arnz5     
n.(官方的)人口调查,人口普查
参考例句:
  • A census of population is taken every ten years.人口普查每10年进行一次。
  • The census is taken one time every four years in our country.我国每四年一次人口普查。
10 finalized 73d0ccbca69b94ee4cd7fc367a8ac9fc     
vt.完成(finalize的过去式与过去分词形式)
参考例句:
  • The draft of this article has been finalized [done]. 这篇文章已经定稿。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
  • The draft was revised several times before it was finalized. 稿子几经删改才定下来。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
11 bucks a391832ce78ebbcfc3ed483cc6d17634     
n.雄鹿( buck的名词复数 );钱;(英国十九世纪初的)花花公子;(用于某些表达方式)责任v.(马等)猛然弓背跃起( buck的第三人称单数 );抵制;猛然震荡;马等尥起后蹄跳跃
参考例句:
  • They cost ten bucks. 这些值十元钱。
  • They are hunting for bucks. 他们正在猎雄兔。 来自《简明英汉词典》
12 marketing Boez7e     
n.行销,在市场的买卖,买东西
参考例句:
  • They are developing marketing network.他们正在发展销售网络。
  • He often goes marketing.他经常去市场做生意。
13 advertising 1zjzi3     
n.广告业;广告活动 a.广告的;广告业务的
参考例句:
  • Can you give me any advice on getting into advertising? 你能指点我如何涉足广告业吗?
  • The advertising campaign is aimed primarily at young people. 这个广告宣传运动主要是针对年轻人的。
14 indicators f46872fc1b5f08e9d32bd107be1df829     
(仪器上显示温度、压力、耗油量等的)指针( indicator的名词复数 ); 指示物; (车辆上的)转弯指示灯; 指示信号
参考例句:
  • The economic indicators are better than expected. 经济指标比预期的好。
  • It is still difficult to develop indicators for many concepts used in social science. 为社会科学领域的许多概念确立一个指标仍然很难。
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