-
(单词翻译:双击或拖选)
This is Scientific Americans 60-Second Science. I am Christopher Intagliata. Got a minute?
Wanna know what the most popular movies, albums and video games are? Ask the internet. But don't Google it. Check what other people Googled. That's the theory behind Google Flu Trends—which crunches1 search data to forecast flu prevalence. With admittedly mixed results.
Nevertheless, researchers have applied2 the idea to the stock market. They found that when searches related to business and politics go up, the market tends to take a dive. Queries3 for words like "election," "senate," and "CEO" are predictive of the downward trend—but not terms like "church," "earthquake" and "geometry."
Why the correlation4? The researchers say investors5 and the public may be more likely to search for information on business and government when they're concerned about the economy. And if confidence in the economy drops, so might stock prices. The findings appear in the Proceedings6 of the National Academy of Sciences.
Over time, the correlation weakened—a sign that traders may already be using Internet search data in automated7 trading algorithms.
"Generally speaking, if an opportunity like this is known, then the effect will diminish, and that's what we think we're seeing in the data we looked at, from 2004 to 2012." Lead author Chester Curme, a research fellow at the Warwick Business School.
And before you head over to Google Trends, he says, keep this in mind: "If somebody knows that other traders use this method, then a predatory trader could manipulate search volumes on Google artificially in order to deceive other traders." As they say in the biz: past performance does not guarantee future results.
Thanks for the minute, for Scientific Americans 60-Second Science. I am Christopher Intagliata.
点击收听单词发音
1 crunches | |
n.(突发的)不足( crunch的名词复数 );需要做出重要决策的困难时刻;紧要关头;嘎吱的响声v.嘎吱嘎吱地咬嚼( crunch的第三人称单数 );嘎吱作响;(快速大量地)处理信息;数字捣弄 | |
参考例句: |
|
|
2 applied | |
adj.应用的;v.应用,适用 | |
参考例句: |
|
|
3 queries | |
n.问题( query的名词复数 );疑问;询问;问号v.质疑,对…表示疑问( query的第三人称单数 );询问 | |
参考例句: |
|
|
4 correlation | |
n.相互关系,相关,关连 | |
参考例句: |
|
|
5 investors | |
n.投资者,出资者( investor的名词复数 ) | |
参考例句: |
|
|
6 proceedings | |
n.进程,过程,议程;诉讼(程序);公报 | |
参考例句: |
|
|
7 automated | |
a.自动化的 | |
参考例句: |
|
|