时代周刊:贻害全球的保护主义(1)

PROTECTIONISM'S FALSE PROMISE

保护主义的虚假承诺

Much of the criticism leveled against globalization today

当下，全球化之所以被批判，很大程度上

is related to the idea that it enriches the few, leaving the many behind.

都跟全球化只充实了个别人的腰包，大多数人都被甩在了后面这样一种观点有关。

The people making this argument frequently advocate for the wholesale¹ abandonment of globalization—

持这种论点的人常常主张全盘抛弃全球化——

which would put the very existence of an international agenda at risk.

而这样的做法是会危及国际事务的根本存在的。

It is understandable that policymakers are responding to their electorates²' grievances³.

政策制定者会响应选民的不满也是情有可原。

While some people have benefited from globalization, large pockets of society have suffered—

因为虽然有些人享受到了全球化的红利，但对从发展中国家的农民，

from farmers in the developing world to manufacturing and industrial workers in the West.

到西方国家制造业及工业从业者的很大一部分群体而言，全球化都是一场磨难。

But these frustrations⁴ have less to do with the ideal of globalization itself

但跟政客们近几十年来推行的简化版的全球化相比，

than the lite version that politicians have implemented⁵ over recent decades.

他们的挫折与全球化这一理想本身并无太大关系。

Regrettably, governments across the globe are pivoting⁶ today toward lesser⁷ political and economic models.

令人遗憾的是，各国政府如今都在朝着越来越少的政治和经济模式发展。

These will offer quick wins but over the long term will reduce growth,

这样做确实能收获立竿见影的成效，但从长远来看，反而会抑制增长，

increase poverty and spur more political and social unrest.

加剧贫困并引发更多的政治动荡和社会动荡。

Rather than address its shortcomings, this will only entrench⁸ the inferior form of globalization.

这样做非但不能弥补全球化的不足，反而会进一步巩固次等形式的全球化。

If the world continues on this isolationist path, three major shifts will happen.

如果国际社会继续走这条孤立主义道路，未来将发生三个重大变化。

First, a more siloed world will force businesses to adopt increasingly local and decreasingly global models.

变化之一，国际社会进一步走向孤立，迫使企业越来越多地采用本地化模式、越来越少地采用全球化模式。

In essence, they will be more likely to rely on local and regional capital—

企业大体上都会更倾向于依赖地方和地区资本——

and less likely to be centrally run from leading financial centers such as New York City, Tokyo and London.

而不是由纽约、东京和伦敦等主要金融中心集中管理。

This change will significantly alter how businesses fund themselves,

这一变化将显著改变企业的融资方式，

how they structure costs and how they view the proposition of long-term growth.

改变他们的成本规划方式以及他们看待长期增长这一命题的方式。

They will be less able to access the global capital that is necessary to fund investments and grow companies—

企业获得为资助投资和增长所必需的全球资本的能力就会打折——

reducing their opportunities to hire people and invest in communities.

企业雇佣员工和投资社区的机会也会随之减少。

Second, there will be short-term deflation and then long-term inflation.

其次，届时将出现短期通缩和长期通胀。

We've already begun to observe the former.

据我们观察，前者现在已经出现了。

Low energy costs, low wages and indeed the low price of money itself (reflected in low interest rates)

能源成本低，工资低，甚至货币本身的价格也低(反映在利率低上)

indicate a prevailing⁹ deflationary world, though they all have notably¹⁰ risen recently.

这些都表明通货紧缩仍在继续，尽管近期上述三者的水平都已明显上涨。

As for the latter, the persistence¹¹ of low inflation has defied warnings of a sharp uptick

就长期通胀来说，低通胀的持续已经打破了

that date as far back as 2009, right after the financial crisis.

早在2009年金融危机爆发后就已出现的通胀率大幅上涨的警告。

1 wholesale   

n.批发；adv.以批发方式；vt.批发，成批出售

参考例句：

• The retail dealer buys at wholesale and sells at retail.零售商批发购进货物，以零售价卖出。
• Such shoes usually wholesale for much less.这种鞋批发出售通常要便宜得多。

2 electorates   

全体选民( electorate的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The assembly's 15 seats have electorates as small as 190. 大会的15个议席只有很少的190选民参加。
• Restricting hedge funds is something they can sell to their electorates. 限制对冲基金是他们能够向选民兜售的东西。

3 grievances   

n.委屈( grievance的名词复数 )；苦衷；不满；牢骚

参考例句：

• The trade union leader spoke about the grievances of the workers. 工会领袖述说工人们的苦情。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
• He gave air to his grievances. 他申诉了他的冤情。 来自《简明英汉词典》

4 frustrations   

挫折( frustration的名词复数 )； 失败； 挫败； 失意

参考例句：

• The temptation would grow to take out our frustrations on Saigon. 由于我们遭到挫折而要同西贡算帐的引诱力会增加。
• Aspirations will be raised, but so will frustrations. 人们会产生种种憧憬，但是种种挫折也会随之而来。

5 implemented   

v.实现( implement的过去式和过去分词 )；执行；贯彻；使生效

参考例句：

• This agreement, if not implemented, is a mere scrap of paper. 这个协定如不执行只不过是一纸空文。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• The economy is in danger of collapse unless far-reaching reforms are implemented. 如果不实施影响深远的改革，经济就面临崩溃的危险。 来自辞典例句

6 pivoting   

n.绕轴旋转，绕公共法线旋转v.（似）在枢轴上转动( pivot的现在分词 )；把…放在枢轴上；以…为核心，围绕（主旨）展开

参考例句：

• Here is a neat YouTube video showing the Gyro's pivoting mechanism. 这里是一个整洁的YouTube视频显示陀螺仪的旋转机制。 来自互联网
• Dart pivoting is widely used in the gannent pattern design. 省道转移的原理在服装纸样设计中应用十分广泛。 来自互联网

7 lesser   

adj.次要的，较小的；adv.较小地，较少地

参考例句：

• Kept some of the lesser players out.不让那些次要的球员参加联赛。
• She has also been affected,but to a lesser degree.她也受到波及，但程度较轻。

8 entrench   

v.使根深蒂固；n.壕沟；防御设施

参考例句：

• A series of measures were designed to entrench democracy and the rule of law.采取一系列措施旨在巩固民主和法制。
• These dictators have entrenched themselves politically and are difficult to move.这些独裁者在政治上已经站稳了脚跟，很难推翻他们。

9 prevailing   

adj.盛行的；占优势的；主要的

参考例句：

• She wears a fashionable hair style prevailing in the city.她的发型是这个城市流行的款式。
• This reflects attitudes and values prevailing in society.这反映了社会上盛行的态度和价值观。

10 notably   

adv.值得注意地，显著地，尤其地，特别地

参考例句：

• Many students were absent,notably the monitor.许多学生缺席，特别是连班长也没来。
• A notably short,silver-haired man,he plays basketball with his staff several times a week.他个子明显较为矮小，一头银发，每周都会和他的员工一起打几次篮球。

11 persistence   

n.坚持，持续，存留

参考例句：

• The persistence of a cough in his daughter puzzled him.他女儿持续的咳嗽把他难住了。
• He achieved success through dogged persistence.他靠着坚持不懈取得了成功。