商业报道:投资银行时代结束

Investment banks' squeezed

Ladenburg Thalman's managing director sees weak bank earnings¹ for 1-2 years during the change to a commercial-bank model.

You have been in this industry for a while, uh, through a lot, this is certainly a shocking time. Why do you think that Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley would make an announcement like this, with this timing²?

Well, I think there were a few reasons. The first one was that last week they couldn’t refund³ their debt. In other words, because so many investors⁴ questioned the value of their assets, the people who were supposed to roll over their debt wouldn’t do it. They just didn’t have confidence in the companies. And therefore, the companies needed assistance immediately from the United States Treasury⁵, which I believe is forthcoming with Mr. Paulson’s new plan. Second point was that they knew that they were gonna be regulated, because virtually, every person in Congress has indicated pretty clearly that they want to regulate the investment banking⁶ business, you know, when the next Congress comes to meet. Thirdly, they wanted to show stability, they wanted to show that they US government was controlling them, that they had deposits that would be backed by the FDIC. In other words, they wanted to show some degree of solidity, so they took the step to do what was inevitable⁷, in my estimation.

Dick, was this the only option really facing Morgan and Goldman, I mean, Would we have seen a run on the bank within a week or two if this hadn’t happened?

I think so. Well, I think you were seeing a run on the bank, and I think that the actions that the Treasury took is what stopped the run on the bank, as oppose to, you know, their declarations of being bank holding companies. I think because they are bank holding companies, it makes it easier for the Treasury to buy assets from them, which probably wouldn’t have been that easy if they remained strictly⁸ investment banking companies.

This has to lower/ their risk-reward profile, so when we look ahead to quarterly earnings reports, I mean, are we going to see shrinking profit for these stocks because of that?

Well, yeah, I mean, you are gonna see the fact that, but this would have happened anywhere, right? In other words, the companies are de-leveraging, they are getting smaller and smaller because people don’t want to give them money. Alright, so that another fact is / when you de-leverage a balance sheet, your earnings are gonna be substantially less. Also, you’re in a cycle which is very negative at the present time, which means that there just isn’t business out there. You can’t do IPOs, you can’t bring in new private equity⁹ deals, prime brokers¹⁰ business, you’re shrinking, you can’t do mortgage deals, so earnings are gonna be very weak for at least a year, maybe two years for these companies, whether they are bank holding companies or not. The fact that they are bank holding companies, I think, creates a little bit more stability to their earnings but they’re just not gonna have good earnings for quite some time.

1 earnings   

n.工资收人；利润，利益，所得

参考例句：

• That old man lives on the earnings of his daughter.那个老人靠他女儿的收入维持生活。
• Last year there was a 20% decrease in his earnings.去年他的收入减少了20%。

2 timing   

n.时间安排，时间选择

参考例句：

• The timing of the meeting is not convenient.会议的时间安排不合适。
• The timing of our statement is very opportune.我们发表声明选择的时机很恰当。

3 refund   

v.退还，偿还；n.归还，偿还额，退款

参考例句：

• They demand a refund on unsatisfactory goods.他们对不满意的货品要求退款。
• We'll refund your money if you aren't satisfied.你若不满意，我们愿意退款给你。

4 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

5 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

6 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

7 inevitable   

adj.不可避免的，必然发生的

参考例句：

• Mary was wearing her inevitable large hat.玛丽戴着她总是戴的那顶大帽子。
• The defeat had inevitable consequences for British policy.战败对英国政策不可避免地产生了影响。

8 strictly   

adv.严厉地，严格地；严密地

参考例句：

• His doctor is dieting him strictly.他的医生严格规定他的饮食。
• The guests were seated strictly in order of precedence.客人严格按照地位高低就座。

9 equity   

n.公正，公平，（无固定利息的）股票

参考例句：

• They shared the work of the house with equity.他们公平地分担家务。
• To capture his equity,Murphy must either sell or refinance.要获得资产净值，墨菲必须出售或者重新融资。

10 brokers   

n.（股票、外币等）经纪人( broker的名词复数 )；中间人；代理商；（订合同的）中人v.做掮客（或中人等）( broker的第三人称单数 )；作为权力经纪人进行谈判；以中间人等身份安排…

参考例句：

• The firm in question was Alsbery & Co., whiskey brokers. 那家公司叫阿尔斯伯里公司，经销威士忌。 来自英汉文学 - 嘉莉妹妹
• From time to time a telephone would ring in the brokers' offices. 那两排经纪人房间里不时响着叮令的电话。 来自子夜部分