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Even after days of intense international pressure, Kenyan President Mwai Kibaki and his political rival, opposition¹ leader Raila Odinga, have yet to engage in dialogue to resolve a post-election dispute that has ignited ethnic² tensions and is threatening to divide the country. At the same time, President Kibaki has announced several members of a new Cabinet, despite previous efforts to form a national unity³ government with opposition leader Odinga. There is enormous pressure on both men to meet face-to-face and find a political solution that can quickly calm the nation.

尽管经历了几天强大的国际压力，肯尼亚总统齐贝吉和他的政治敌手反对党领袖奥廷加仍旧没有进行对话，以解决选举后的纠纷引发的族群紧张情势。这场纠纷可能导致国家分裂。两位领导人都受到巨大的压力，要他们举行面对面的会谈，寻求迅速使全国恢复平静的政治方案。

Several days of shuttle diplomacy⁴ conducted by influential⁵ figures such as South African Nobel laureate Desmond Tutu and U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Jendayi Frazer have failed to convince the opposition leader Raila Odinga to meet with President Kibaki.

南非的诺贝尔和平奖得主图图和美国主管非洲事务的助理国务卿弗雷泽等具有影响力的人士几天来的穿梭外交，仍然不能说服肯尼亚反对党领袖奥廷加和齐贝吉总统会晤。

On Tuesday, Mr. Odinga flatly rejected an offer by the Kenyan leader to meet at his official residence on Friday, saying Mr. Kibaki was using the planned meeting as a public relations gimmick⁶.

星期二，奥廷加直率地拒绝了肯尼亚领导人齐贝吉提出的星期五在他的官邸会晤的建议。奥廷加说，齐贝吉是在利用计划好的会晤来搞公关伎俩。

The head of the African Union, Ghanaian President John Kufuor, is also expected to lead mediation⁷ efforts in the coming days.

预料担任非盟主席的加纳总统库福尔也将在未来几天中发起一项调停努力。

A local political commentator⁸ and publisher Barrack Muluka says getting Mr. Kibaki, an ethnic Kikuyu, and Mr. Odinga, an ethnic Luo to the negotiating table would be a significant first step to ending the countrywide killing⁹ spree that has largely pitted ethnic Kikuyus against ethnic Luos and other tribes, who support the opposition.

当地政治评论员和发行人穆卢卡说，让基库尤族的齐贝吉和卢奥族的奥廷加开始谈判将是终止肯尼亚全国范围的屠杀行为具有意义的一步。这场屠杀使基库尤族、卢奥族以及其他支持反对党的部族相互敌对。

The violence killed as many as 600 people and displaced 255,000 others since December 30.

肯尼亚的暴力活动自从12月30日以来已经使多达600人丧生，并且导致25万5千人流离失所。

"If they engage constructively¹⁰, then the starting point would be how do we work together and beyond working together in the short term, how do we ensure that, in the future, this kind of situation does not happen again," said Muluka. "In the long term, they must talk about the possibility of working together in a transitional kind of arrangement that prepares the ground for the future."

穆卢卡说：“如果双方以建设性的态度参与谈判，那么起点将是我们如何共同努力，在短期努力的基础之上，如何保证在将来这类屠杀不再发生。从长远来看，他们必须讨论，通过一些过渡时期的安排，共同努力准备好未来合作的基础。”

Kenyans voted peacefully in record numbers in parliamentary and presidential elections on December 27. But the opposition says the final tally¹¹, giving Mr. Kibaki a narrow win over Raila Odinga, was rigged. The opposition has demanded the president's resignation and fresh elections to be held within the next three months.

12月27日，人数破纪录的肯尼亚选民和平地参与投票，进行议会和总统选举。但是反对党说，虽然最后的计票结果显示齐贝吉以微弱多数赢了奥廷加，但计票过程被认为受到操纵。反对党要求齐贝吉总统辞职，并且在3个月内重新举行选举。

International observers and allies, including the United States, agree that the vote count, conducted by Kenya's electoral commission, lacked credibility. The Kibaki government has resisted calls for an investigation¹², insisting that complaints about the election must first go through the courts.

国际观察人士和肯尼亚的友邦，包括美国在内，都认为由肯尼亚选举委员会的计票工作不可信。但是，齐贝吉总统的政府拒绝进行调查的呼吁，他们坚持说，有关选举的报怨必须先经过法院审理。

A former Kenyan parliament member Waihenya Kihoro says the country's judiciary is widely perceived as being biased¹³ toward the Kibaki government and would not be able to deliver an uncontested verdict.

肯尼亚前任议员基霍洛说，这个国家的司法系统被广泛认为偏向齐贝吉的政府，因而无法做出不受置疑的判决。

Kihoro says he believes the opposition demand of holding fresh elections quickly is also unrealistic because the much-criticized Electoral Commission of Kenya would have to be replaced an independent body and the process is likely to be time-consuming.

基霍洛说，他相信反对党要求尽快重新举行选举也不符合实际，因为广受批评的肯尼亚选举委员会必须先由一个独立的机构取代。这件事也会化费很长的时间。

"At the end of the day, if the problem has arisen because of flawed election, the remedy is a re-run of the elections, a power-sharing arrangement in the interim," said Kihoro. "The outcome of the elections was not acceptable not only to the opposition, but also to a majority of Kenyans because now, even people who voted for Kibaki feel very unhappy about what has happened."

基霍洛说：“说到底，如果因为选举的瑕疵而发生了问题，补救的办法就是重行选举。或者在过渡时期做权力分享的安排。这次选举的结果不但反对党不能接受，对大多数肯尼亚人民也是同样无法接受。因为现在，即使是当初投票给齐贝吉的人民，也因为已经发生的事件而觉得非常不高兴。”

A sociology professor at University of Nairobi, Paul Mbatia, predicts much of the violence and ethnic bloodletting will stop, if the two Kenyan leaders, who were once political allies, begin pursuing genuine reconciliation¹⁴ and reject tribalism.

"The moment they see these leaders together talking, that will have solved half of the problem," said Mbatia. "As long as they talk and as long as they can convince Kenyans that something is being worked out by the two parties, Kenyans will wait. But as long as they are just communicating through the media, the divide remains¹⁵ very wide and making it very clear that we are nowhere near a consensus¹⁶."

The United States says Kenya's political crisis will not be resolved simply by - in the words of Assistant Secretary of State Jendayi Frazer - dishing out political seats, but by addressing the root causes that triggered the unrest.

美国方面认为，正如助理国务卿弗雷泽所说的，肯尼亚的政治危机不是安排政治妥协就能解决的，而是要针对引发紊乱局势的根源对症下药。