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Voters in Pakistan are set to go to the polls Monday in elections for the lower house of parliament and the four provincial¹ assemblies. The elections and their aftermath hold potential dangers for a nation that has been through a series of crises recently, including the murder of a popular opposition² figure.

巴基斯坦的选民将于下星期一前往投票站，选举议会下院的议员以及四个省级议会的议员。巴基斯坦近来经历了一连串危机，包括深得民心的反对党领袖布托被刺杀。议会选举中和选后期间，仍包含潜在的危险。

In the past year, Pakistan has been rattled³ by a power struggle between the judiciary and the president, the armed occupation of a mosque⁴ by Islamic militants⁵ in the heart of the capital, the imposition of emergency rule, a surge in suicide bombings, a growing insurgency⁶ in tribal⁷ lands, and the assassination⁸ of the country's best-known opposition figure.

过去一年来，巴基斯坦一直处在在司法系统和总统的权力斗争之中。这期间发生了一系列事件，包括激进分子在首都中心占领清真寺、当局实施紧急状态、自杀炸弹袭击的次数增加、部落地区叛军活动增多、巴基斯坦最著名的反对党人物被刺杀等。

Recent independent polls of Pakistani voters reflect wide dissatisfaction with President Pervez Musharraf, pessimism⁹ about their economic situation, insecurity about personal safety, and deep cynicism about the fairness of the elections.

最近在巴基斯坦选民中进行的独立民调，反映出对穆沙拉夫广泛的不满和对经济问题、个人安全问题的悲观，以及对选举公平性的嘲讽。

One poll by the U.S.-based International Republican Institute has Mr. Musharraf's approval rating at only 15 percent.

一项由美国的国际共和研究所主办的民调显示，穆沙拉夫的支持率只有15%。

Mr. Musharraf is not on the ballot¹⁰, having been re-elected in November by a national assembly and four provincial assemblies packed with his supporters, but his party, the PMLQ., is. Its primary opponents are the Pakistan Peoples Party, the PPP, the party of assassinated¹¹ former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, and the PMLN, headed by Nawaz Sharif, another former prime minister who was once Ms. Bhutto's chief political rival.

穆沙拉夫的名字并不在选票上，他已经于去年11月，在由他的支持者控制的国民议会和四个省议会的选举中，当选连任巴基斯坦总统。但是他的政党巴基斯坦穆斯林联盟(领袖派)参加了竞选。他们的主要竞争对手包括被暗杀的布托的巴基斯坦人民党以及由前总理谢里夫领导的巴基斯坦穆斯林联盟(谢里夫派)。谢里夫曾经是布托的头号政敌。

The International Republican Institute's Middle East and North Africa Programs deputy director, Scott Mastic, says the assassination of Ms. Bhutto on Dec. 27 has had a clear effect on voters.

美国国际共和研究所的中东及北非项目的副主任马斯蒂克说，布托遇刺对选民的影响是明显的。

"You could say there is even a sort of groundswell of public sympathy, I would say, in the aftermath of the assassination, and that is translated into support for the PPP," said Scott Mastic. "On the whole, though, support for opposition parties, including PMLN. and PPP, is just much higher right now than support for the governing coalition¹² of parties."

马斯蒂克说：“我认为，你可以说那是刺杀事件之后激起的大众同情，这种同情已经化作对巴基斯坦人民党的支持。总体来说，反对党，包括巴基斯坦穆斯林联盟(谢里夫派)和巴基斯坦人民党受到的支持，都高于执政联盟得到的支持。”

The opposition has accused pro-Musharraf forces of trying to manipulate the election's outcome. And, according to the IRI poll, 79 percent of surveyed voters believe the elections will have been rigged if Mr. Musharraf's party wins the most seats.

反对派谴责支持穆沙拉夫的军队试图操控选举结果。同时，根据国际共和研究所的调查，接受调查的79%的投票者认为，如果穆沙拉夫的政党赢得最多的席位，选举就一定有舞弊存在。

A longtime associate of Ms. Bhutto's who collaborated¹³ with her on her just-published final book, Mark Siegel, tells VOA such figures make massive vote fraud very difficult.

布托女士的长期合作者、同布托合作帮助她发表最后一本书的西格尔说，这样大规模的选举舞弊非常难以实施。

"The magnitude of the rigging will have to be so grand that the whole world would see that the election would be illegitimate," he said. "You know, Benazir always thought that Musharraf would try to rig. But under these conditions, she would probably say that he could not rig it enough to steal the election completely."

西格尔说：“如果相信选举结果被操控这种说法，那么舞弊的规模如此之大，全世界都会认为整个选举都是非法的。布托一直都认为穆沙拉夫试图操控选举。但是在这些条件下，她可能会说，穆沙拉夫不可能将选举操控到窃取全部议席的程度。”

The polls have struck a raw nerve with Mr. Musharraf, who while reiterating¹⁵ his pledge of fair elections, sharply denounced the surveys by international organizations.

这次民意调查触及到穆沙拉夫的痛处，他重申对公正选举的承诺，同时强烈谴责国际组织做出的调查。

"Declaring winning parties, candidates, is malicious¹⁶," he said. "It is malicious. It disturbs our peace. It cannot be done. It must not be done because you are giving unnecessary hopes, expectations, raising expectations of parties and people."

穆沙拉夫说，“宣布获胜的政党和获胜的候选人是有恶意的。这侵扰了我们的和平。不能这样做。一定不能这样做。因为这样做等于是给人们没有必要的希望、期待。抬高政党和人民的期望。”

Most analysts¹⁷ say that if the vote is legitimate¹⁴, the PPP will emerge with the largest number of seats and form a coalition that will put up longtime party stalwart Makhdoom Amin Fahim as the candidate for prime minister.

大多数分析人士说，如果投票是合法的，巴基斯坦人民党将是获得最多席位的政党，并将组建联合政府，推选该党长期以来的强势人物马赫杜姆为总理候选人。

But a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, Daniel Markey, points out the past bitter rivalry¹⁸ between the Bhutto and Sharif parties indicates the coalition could prove fractious and unsteady.

但是，外交关系委员会的高级研究员马基指出，布托和谢里夫领导的两个政党在过去针锋相对的斗争，预示了联合政府将是派系对立和不稳定的。

"In the event that you did get an opposition sweep, both the PPP and PMLN would feel an obligation to get rid of Musharraf," he said. "But both of them would also recognize in the back of their minds that as soon as they get rid of him, they will be at each others' throats. They have no love for each other. And they will be looking past that initial decision, past the Musharraf decision, to decide what is good for them as parties. And they may decide that keeping him around is more beneficial than removing him right away."

马基说，“在选举中你确实会看到人民党和穆斯林联盟(谢里夫派)会感到有责任赶走穆沙拉夫。但是，双方同时也在内心深处承认，一旦他们赶走穆沙拉夫，他们很快就会互相争斗起来。他们彼此没有好感。同时他们会抛弃最初的决定，抛弃穆沙拉夫的决定，来判定究竟哪些东西对自己的党有利。他们可能会决定，让穆沙拉夫留任，可能比把他赶下台更有利。”

And, analysts add, the army will be waiting and watching from the sidelines, ready to intervene if it feels necessary, as it has for much of Pakistan's 60 years of existence.

同时，分析人士说，军队将待命，从旁观察，如果他们认为有必要干涉政局，就一定会行动。就象军方在巴基斯坦建国以来的60年来的一贯作法一样。