英语听力精选进阶版 14478

Researchers explain goalkeepers' mistake

Goalkeepers are lucky because strikers aren't aware of statistics, say researchers

Summary

1 August 2014

Goalkeepers facing penalty shootouts make a predictable mistake that could influence the outcome, say researchers. Psychologists who analysed World Cups and European championships over 36 years found that after three kicks in the same direction, the keepers were more likely to throw themselves the opposite way. The research has been published in the journal Current Biology.

Reporter:

Matt McGrath

Report

If a tossed coin comes up 'heads', ten times in a row, is it more or less likely to show 'tails' on the next throw? 

If you think it must be tails, you are falling for the gambler's fallacy, the idea that sequences of results are connected. And you're not alone. 

Some of the world's top goalkeepers are prone¹ to making the same mistake. 

Researchers from University College London analysed videos of penalty shootouts at every World Cup since 1976. They found that after three kicks in a row towards the same side of the goal, on the next shot the goalkeeper dived for the opposite side 69% of the time. 

This small but statistically² significant pattern could be enough to win shootouts. But so far the goalkeepers have been lucky. Penalty takers are under such pressure to score, they've failed to notice and take advantage of the flaw.

1 prone   

adj.(to)易于…的，很可能…的；俯卧的

参考例句：

• Some people are prone to jump to hasty conclusions.有些人往往作出轻率的结论。
• He is prone to lose his temper when people disagree with him.人家一不同意他的意见,他就发脾气。

2 statistically   

ad.根据统计数据来看，从统计学的观点来看

参考例句：

• The sample of building permits is larger and therefore, statistically satisfying. 建筑许可数的样本比较大，所以统计数据更令人满意。
• The results of each test would have to be statistically independent. 每次试验的结果在统计上必须是独立的。