个性化时代还没有到来

 　　As 2014 drew to a close, I became one of the last baby boomers to turn 50. Or possibly, I became one of the first Generation Xers to reach that milestone¹. Depending where you draw the line, either I am about to enjoy the fruits of half a century of increasing affluence² and entitlement, having climbed to the top of the hierarchy³ I help sustain; or I am entering a period of resentment⁴ about my smug elders’ lockhold on the best jobs and homes and the damage they have inflicted⁵ on the environment and humankind.

　　到2014年年底，我成为了婴儿潮一代中最后一批步入50岁的人。或者说，我成为了X一代(Generation X)中首批到达50岁的人。根据不同的分界线，我或者是作为维持社会阶层结构并爬上了顶端的人，即将享受半个世纪以来日益增长的财富和福利的果实；或者是，对自命不凡的长者牢牢占据了最好的工作和房子、并对环境和人类造成损害，我开始步入一段愤怒的时期。

　　I am part of Generation Cusp. Businesses that treat me as a boomer will vex⁶ me with advertisements for products intended for grumpy pensioners⁷ (the oldest members of the postwar birth bulge⁸ are now in their late 60s), while those that market to me as a Gen Xer will annoy me by assuming I have something in common with overambitious 30-somethings.

　　我是处于交叉点的一代。把我视为婴儿潮一代的企业，会用针对脾气暴躁的退休老人的产品广告来烦我（战后出生率暴涨时期出生的人中年纪最大的一些人，现在将近70岁），同样让我恼火的是，那些把我当作X一代的企业则假设我和那些过于雄心勃勃的30来岁的人有一些共同之处。

　　个性化时代还没有到来

　　Such generational generalisations are only the crudest way companies decide what to sell and how to sell it. But much as I hate the stereotyping⁹, there are good reasons why this will not be the year the personalised product and the personalised pitch come of age.

　　这种对一代人的泛化不过是企业决定销售什么产品、以及用何种方式销售产品的最粗略的方式。尽管我很讨厌这种模式化，但仍有一些很强的原因，解释我们为何今年还不会迎来个性化产品和个性化销售策略的时代。

　　Experts have long heralded¹⁰ the ability of manufacturers to use “mass customisation” to pimp my training shoes or your car. Insurers are eager to tailor their products to my personal driving habits. Personalised diagnostic tools and drug therapies —linked to patients’ DNA¹¹ sequences — are on the horizon. With scant¹² regard for our own privacy, we are already volunteering enough information to companies to allow them to launch more precise attacks on our wallets.

　　专家们早就预言制造商将有能力用“大规模定制”向我推销训练鞋，或者向你推销汽车。保险公司迫切地希望根据我的驾驶习惯量身打造产品。与病人的DNA序列相关联的个性化诊断工具和药物疗法在未来也可能出现。我们对自身隐私考虑甚少，已经自愿把足够的信息提供给企业，让他们对我们的钱包发起更精准的攻击。

　　But the promise of personalisation has faded a bit since Chris Anderson got marketers all excited nine years ago with The Long Tail . In the book, he outlined the potential profit lurking¹³ in low-volume items at the end of the demand curve and warned that the 80/20 rule — the crude assumption that 20 per cent of products account for 80 per cent of sales — would “lose its bite”. Inspired, I spent some time in the late 2000s deliberately¹⁴ tweaking Amazon’s “recommended for you” lists, rating books I owned in the hope Jeff Bezos would find me the perfect novel — until I realised he did not care. Amazon, then as now, would rather sell me more of what I have just bought, or the latest bestsellers, than algorithmically analyse my taste in media and identify a handful of items at the underpopulated intersection¹⁵ of “Bill Murray movies” and “fiction by Richard Ford”.

　　但自从9年前克里斯?安德森(Chris Anderson)用一部《长尾理论》(The Long Tail)让所有的营销人员兴奋起来以后，个性化的前景就有些黯然失色。在书中，安德森概述了需求曲线末端销量较低的产品潜藏的利润，并警告“二八定律”(80/20 rule)，也就是粗略假设20%的产品产生80%的销售额的定律将“部分失效”。受到启发后，我在2000年代晚期特意对我已在亚马逊(Amazon)上购买的书进行评分，好让它更换“相关推荐”清单，期望杰夫?贝索斯(Jeff Bezos)能帮我找到最好的小说，直到我意识到，他根本不在乎这事。和现在一样，亚马逊更想向我兜售更多我刚刚买到的书，或者最新的畅销书，而不是利用算法分析我对媒体的品味，找出几本同时与“比尔?默里(Bill Murray)的电影”和“理查德?福特(Richard Ford)的小说”相关的小众书推荐给我。

　　Amazon’s attitude makes sense. Most companies stick with mass production and common product configurations¹⁶, for technical or commercial reasons. Even Google— which commands even more data with which to personalise its services — touts¹⁷ its Android mobile phone operating system under the slogan “Be together. Not the same”. Tilting¹⁸ gently at Apple, the advertising¹⁹ plays to the idea that each Android user is an individual, but also part of a like-minded crowd. In reality, Google has to ensure its software works across the greatest number and range of devices, safe from malfunctions²⁰, abuses and piracy²¹. The paradox²² is neatly²³ summed up in one poster showing a crowd of Android robots, each differently dressed and equipped. Underneath²⁴, however, they are all still the same robot.

　　亚马逊的态度有其道理。许多企业出于技术或者商业的原因，坚持按照一般性产品配置进行大规模生产。即使是掌握了更多数据、因此可以据此对产品进行个性化的谷歌(Google)，对其Android手机操作系统的宣传语也是“和而不同”(Be together. Not the same)。这条广告温和地对苹果(Apple)进行了抨击，展现的理念是每个Android用户不仅是个体，也是思想相似的群体的一部分。然而事实上，谷歌必须确保它的软件能在数量和款型最多的设备上正常运行，不会出现失灵、滥用和盗版问题。这其中的矛盾在一幅海报上得到了精妙的总结，海报上有一群Android机器人，每一个的穿着和装备都不同。然而，在外表之下，它们依旧是相同的机器人。

　　Anita Elberse underlined in her recent book Blockbusters — which takes issue with the “long tail” thesis — that companies still mine a great deal of money from a few products that everybody wants to buy. “Because people are inherently social,” she wrote, “they generally find value in reading the same books and watching the same television shows and movies that others do.”

　　阿妮塔?埃尔贝斯(Anita Elberse)最近的著作《大片效应》(Blockbusters)对长尾理论提出了异议，认为企业依然能依靠人人都想购买的少数商品赚得盆满钵满。“因为人天生是社会性的，”她写道，“他们通常会从阅读其他人读过的书，观看其他人看过的电视剧和电影中寻找价值。”

　　In fact, research suggests an over-tailored pitch turns customers off. Either they find it too spookily precise, or — as Stanford marketing²⁵ professor Itamar Simonson has written — they sense that, because it is so bespoke²⁶, it will not be a good deal.

　　事实上，研究表明过度定制的销售策略会让消费者望而却步。要么是他们觉得定位过于精确，所以心生畏惧，要么就像斯坦福大学(Stanford)营销学教授伊塔马尔?西蒙森(Itamar Simonson)所写的那样，因为定制度太高，消费者感觉不划算。

　　Generalisation will continue to be a useful business tool. More precise data will allow companies to generalise better. But the capacity for confusion will remain — in part because nobody fits neatly into just one category.

　　泛化以后仍将是一个有用的商业工具。更精确的数据能让企业更好地泛化。但困惑还将继续存在，部分原因是没人能严丝合缝地被归入一种类别。

　　One of my favourite stand-up comedy lines comes from a joke in which God toys with the human race he is creating: “I know! I’ll make seven sexes and tell them there are only two!” Lacking His omniscience²⁷, companies, generally speaking, would be wise to continue to rely on humans to do their own personalisation.

　　我最喜欢的单人脱口秀台词来自一个笑话，上帝戏耍他创造的人类：“我知道啦！我会创造7种性别，然后告诉他们只有两种！”没有上帝的全知，通常来说，继续让人们自己进行个性化才是企业的明智之举。

1 milestone   

n.里程碑；划时代的事件

参考例句：

• The film proved to be a milestone in the history of cinema.事实证明这部影片是电影史上的一个里程碑。
• I think this is a very important milestone in the relations between our two countries.我认为这是我们两国关系中一个十分重要的里程碑。

2 affluence   

n.充裕，富足

参考例句：

• Their affluence is more apparent than real.他们的富有是虚有其表。
• There is a lot of affluence in this part of the state because it has many businesses.这个州的这一部分相当富有，因为它有很多商行。

3 hierarchy   

n.等级制度；统治集团，领导层

参考例句：

• There is a rigid hierarchy of power in that country.那个国家有一套严密的权力等级制度。
• She's high up in the management hierarchy.她在管理阶层中地位很高。

4 resentment   

n.怨愤，忿恨

参考例句：

• All her feelings of resentment just came pouring out.她一股脑儿倾吐出所有的怨恨。
• She cherished a deep resentment under the rose towards her employer.她暗中对她的雇主怀恨在心。

5 inflicted   

把…强加给，使承受，遭受( inflict的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• They inflicted a humiliating defeat on the home team. 他们使主队吃了一场很没面子的败仗。
• Zoya heroically bore the torture that the Fascists inflicted upon her. 卓娅英勇地承受法西斯匪徒加在她身上的酷刑。

6 vex   

vt.使烦恼，使苦恼

参考例句：

• Everything about her vexed him.有关她的一切都令他困惑。
• It vexed me to think of others gossiping behind my back.一想到别人在背后说我闲话，我就很恼火。

7 pensioners   

n.领取退休、养老金或抚恤金的人( pensioner的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• He intends to redistribute income from the middle class to poorer paid employees and pensioners. 他意图把中产阶级到低薪雇员和退休人员的收入做重新分配。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• I am myself one of the pensioners upon the fund left by our noble benefactor. 我自己就是一个我们的高贵的施主遗留基金的养老金领取者。 来自辞典例句

8 bulge   

n.突出，膨胀，激增；vt.突出，膨胀

参考例句：

• The apple made a bulge in his pocket.苹果把他口袋塞得鼓了起来。
• What's that awkward bulge in your pocket?你口袋里那块鼓鼓囊囊的东西是什么？

9 stereotyping   

v.把…模式化，使成陈规( stereotype的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• I realize that I'm stereotyping. 我认识到我搞的是老一套。 来自辞典例句
• There is none of the gender stereotyping usually evident in school uniforms. 有没有人的性别刻板印象通常是显而易见的。 来自互联网

10 heralded   

v.预示( herald的过去式和过去分词 )；宣布（好或重要）

参考例句：

• The singing of the birds heralded in the day. 鸟鸣报晓。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• A fanfare of trumpets heralded the arrival of the King. 嘹亮的小号声宣告了国王驾到。 来自《简明英汉词典》

11 DNA   

(缩)deoxyribonucleic acid 脱氧核糖核酸

参考例句：

• DNA is stored in the nucleus of a cell.脱氧核糖核酸储存于细胞的细胞核里。
• Gene mutations are alterations in the DNA code.基因突变是指DNA密码的改变。

12 scant   

adj.不充分的，不足的；v.减缩，限制，忽略

参考例句：

• Don't scant the butter when you make a cake.做糕饼时不要吝惜奶油。
• Many mothers pay scant attention to their own needs when their children are small.孩子们小的时候，许多母亲都忽视自己的需求。

13 lurking   

潜在

参考例句：

• Why are you lurking around outside my house? 你在我房子外面鬼鬼祟祟的，想干什么？
• There is a suspicious man lurking in the shadows. 有一可疑的人躲在阴暗中。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》

14 deliberately   

adv.审慎地；蓄意地；故意地

参考例句：

• The girl gave the show away deliberately.女孩故意泄露秘密。
• They deliberately shifted off the argument.他们故意回避这个论点。

15 intersection   

n.交集，十字路口，交叉点；[计算机] 交集

参考例句：

• There is a stop sign at an intersection.在交叉路口处有停车标志。
• Bridges are used to avoid the intersection of a railway and a highway.桥用来避免铁路和公路直接交叉。

16 configurations   

n.[化学]结构( configuration的名词复数 )；构造；（计算机的）配置；构形（原子在分子中的相对空间位置）

参考例句：

• Such configurations, obtained theoretically by calculation, are called models of a star. 通过理论计算得到的恒星结构称为恒星模型。 来自辞典例句
• The other two configurations have overriding advantages for special applications. 其它两种接法对特殊应用具有突出的优点。 来自辞典例句

17 touts   

n.招徕( tout的名词复数 )；（音乐会、体育比赛等的）卖高价票的人；侦查者；探听赛马的情报v.兜售( tout的第三人称单数 )；招揽；侦查；探听赛马情报

参考例句：

• Many vouchers are returned for cash, allowing touts and middle men to make a healthy margin. 许多月饼券都被兑换成现金，这让券贩子和中间商赚取了不蜚的利润。 来自互联网
• Spotting prey, the customary crowd of hustlers and touts swarmed around, jostling for my business. 照例有大群的拉客黄牛在寻觅猎物，他们争相过来抢我的生意。 来自互联网

18 tilting   

倾斜，倾卸

参考例句：

• For some reason he thinks everyone is out to get him, but he's really just tilting at windmills. 不知为什么他觉得每个人都想害他，但其实他不过是在庸人自扰。
• So let us stop bickering within our ranks.Stop tilting at windmills. 所以，让我们结束内部间的争吵吧！再也不要去做同风车作战的蠢事了。

19 advertising   

n.广告业；广告活动 a.广告的；广告业务的

参考例句：

• Can you give me any advice on getting into advertising? 你能指点我如何涉足广告业吗?
• The advertising campaign is aimed primarily at young people. 这个广告宣传运动主要是针对年轻人的。

20 malfunctions   

n.故障，功能障碍（malfunction的复数形式）vi.失灵（malfunction的第三人称单数形式）

参考例句：

• The mood of defeat was as pervasive as the odor of malfunctions and decay. 失败的情绪就象损坏腐烂的臭味一样弥漫全艇。 来自辞典例句
• Possibility of engine malfunctions due to moisture, are lessened. 发动机故障的可能性，由于水分，也将减少。 来自互联网

21 piracy   

n.海盗行为，剽窃，著作权侵害

参考例句：

• The government has already adopted effective measures against piracy.政府已采取有效措施惩治盗版行为。
• They made the place a notorious centre of piracy.他们把这地方变成了臭名昭著的海盗中心。

22 paradox   

n.似乎矛盾却正确的说法；自相矛盾的人(物)

参考例句：

• The story contains many levels of paradox.这个故事存在多重悖论。
• The paradox is that Japan does need serious education reform.矛盾的地方是日本确实需要教育改革。

23 neatly   

adv.整洁地，干净地，灵巧地，熟练地

参考例句：

• Sailors know how to wind up a long rope neatly.水手们知道怎样把一条大绳利落地缠好。
• The child's dress is neatly gathered at the neck.那孩子的衣服在领口处打着整齐的皱褶。

24 underneath   

adj.在...下面，在...底下；adv.在下面

参考例句：

• Working underneath the car is always a messy job.在汽车底下工作是件脏活。
• She wore a coat with a dress underneath.她穿着一件大衣，里面套着一条连衣裙。

25 marketing   

n.行销，在市场的买卖，买东西

参考例句：

• They are developing marketing network.他们正在发展销售网络。
• He often goes marketing.他经常去市场做生意。

26 bespoke   

adj.（产品）订做的；专做订货的v.预定( bespeak的过去式 )；订（货）；证明；预先请求

参考例句：

• His style of dressing bespoke great self-confidence. 他的衣着风格显得十分自信。
• The haberdasher presented a cap, saying,"Here is the cap your worship bespoke." 帽匠拿出一顶帽子来说：“这就是老爷您定做的那顶。” 来自辞典例句

27 omniscience   

n.全知，全知者，上帝

参考例句：

• Omniscience is impossible, but we be ready at all times, constantly studied. 无所不知是不可能，但我们应该时刻准备着，不断地进修学习。 来自互联网
• Thus, the argument concludes that omniscience and omnipotence are logically incompatible. 因此，争论断定那个上帝和全能是逻辑地不兼容的。 来自互联网