中国如何让资本外流变成好事

 　　After increasing relentlessly¹ for two decades, China’s foreign exchange reserves started to decline about a year ago, and during the crisis month of August 2015 they plummeted² alarmingly. Seen by many investors³ as a signal of waning⁴ confidence in the credibility of Chinese economic policy, a collapse⁵ in the reserves is now taken as one of the prime reasons to dump risk assets on a global basis. As the balance sheet of the PBOC shrinks, investors fear that “quantitative tightening⁶” will be triggered in developed bond markets, and worry that a credit crunch⁷ will occur in China itself.

　　在连续不停地增加20年之后，中国的外汇储备在大约一年前开始减少，在2015年8月的危机期间以令人震惊的幅度下降。在许多投资者眼里，这是市场对中国经济政策可信度的信心在降低的标志，中国外汇储备大幅减少现在被列为在全球范围抛售风险资产的主要原因之一。随着中国央行(PBoC)资产负债表缩小，投资者害怕这将在在发达国家债券市场触发“量化紧缩”，并担心中国自身将发生信贷危机。

　　These concerns are not entirely⁸ without foundation but a confidence run on the renminbi is still unlikely. Much will depend on whether the Chinese authorities can shed their cloak of secrecy⁹ sufficiently¹⁰ to lay out a clear strategy for the reserves, the exchange rate, monetary¹¹ policy and the necessary clean up in the domestic banking¹² system. If the right strategy emerges, confidence can be restored, because China is very far from being an insolvent¹³ nation.

　　这些担心并非毫无依据，但人民币仍不大可能遭遇“信心挤兑”。事情将在很大程度上取决于中国官方能否充分摆脱神神秘秘的习惯，在储备、汇率、货币政策和国内银行体系的必要清理等问题上阐明清晰的战略。如果正确的战略浮出水面，那么信心就可以恢复，因为中国远不是一个失去清偿能力的国家。

　　中国如何让资本外流变成好事

　　How did China get here? The rise in foreign exchange reserves started way back in 2001, and proceeded at about 40 per cent a year in the mid¹⁴ 2000s. After that, the rate of increase has gradually slowed, and the reserves peaked at almost exactly $4 trillion in August 2014. Throughout this long period, China ran a large current account surplus, and a private sector¹⁵ capital surplus, but did not want the exchange rate to rise too rapidly. The authorities therefore smoothed the inevitable¹⁶ exchange rate appreciation¹⁷ by buying dollars and building reserves. The rise in the reserves was not so much a deliberate policy choice, more the automatic result of policy decisions elsewhere.

　　中国当前的局面是如何形成的？早在2001年，中国的外汇储备便开始增加，在本世纪头十年中期的增速达到约40%。之后外汇储备增速逐渐放缓，在2014年8月达到近4万亿美元的最高点。在这段很长的时期内，中国运行着巨大的经常账户顺差以及私人部门资本盈余，但不希望汇率升高得过快。因此，中国当局通过买入美元和积累外汇储备，使不可避免的汇率升值过程变得平缓。外汇储备的增加与其说是刻意的政策选择，不如说是其他地方政策决定自动引发的结果。

　　The real exchange rate rose by about 40 per cent after 2007, and by 2014 it had eliminated the persistent¹⁸ undervaluation that had for so long annoyed the US and the rest of the international economic community. This changed the dynamics¹⁹ of the balance of payments, reducing the current account surplus to 2 per cent of GDP from a peak of 11 per cent in 2007. The interest “carry” trades that had sucked private capital into China also started to unwind as the market recognised that the currency was no longer undervalued, and that Chinese interest rates would fall sharply if the economy experienced a hard landing.

　　2007年后，人民币实际汇率升高了约40%，到2014年，之前一直惹恼美国和其他海外经济体的持续低估已不存在。这改变了中国的国际收支态势，经常账户顺差从2007年相当于国内生产总值(GDP) 11%的峰值降至GDP的2%。之前把私人资本吸引到中国的利息“套利”交易也开始被解除，因为市场意识到人民币已不再低估，而如果经济硬着陆，那么中国利率将大幅下降。

　　In the past 12 months, private sector capital outflows have proceeded at a generally orderly pace, but have still forced China to reduce its reserves by $400 billion in order to prevent a precipitous drop in the exchange rate. It was not until the PBOC announced an adjustment to its exchange rate mechanism²⁰ on 11 August, triggering fears of future devaluation, that the capital outflow hit crisis proportions. During August, the reserves dropped by $94 billion on the official figures, and many analysts²¹ think that disguised intervention²² in futures²³ and options markets increased the genuine figure for currency support to over $170 billion last month.

　　在过去12个月里，私人部门资本外流的总体步伐是有序的，但仍迫使中国消耗了4000亿美元储备，以防止汇率陡然下跌。只是在8月11日中国央行宣布调整汇率机制、触发市场担心人民币未来再度贬值之后，资本外流才达到危机规模。官方数据显示，8月份中国外汇储备减少了940亿美元。许多分析人士认为，对期货和期权市场的变相干预意味着该月真实的汇率支持力度超过1700亿美元。

　　Clearly, such a rapid rate of reserve depletion²⁴ would, if continued, administer a large global shock to asset markets as China’s holdings of foreign bonds are reduced. Furthermore, when reserves decline, the official sales of dollars for renminbi reduce local currency liquidity²⁵ in the domestic financial system. Although the impact of reserve changes on domestic liquidity can in theory be offset²⁶ by “sterilisation” activities by the central bank (such as changing banks’ reserve requirements), in practice sterilisation does not seem to have been fully²⁷ successful in either direction.

　　显而易见的是，如果这样的消耗速度继续下去，随着中国所持外国债券减少，将对全球资产市场造成重大冲击。另外，当外汇储备减少时，官方抛售美元、买入人民币之举，会降低国内金融体系的本币流动性。尽管在理论上，外汇储备变化对国内流动性的冲击可以被央行的“冲销”行动（比如调整银行存准率）抵消，但在实践中，这种冲销在两个方向上似乎都不是特别成功。

　　Recent IMF research shows that large scale capital inflows have frequently triggered domestic credit explosions, and it is reasonable to suppose that capital outflows could cause an unintended tightening in domestic financial conditions in China. Indeed, the graph on the left suggests that this is already happening.

　　国际货币基金组织(IMF)不久前的研究显示，大规模资本流入经常引发国内信贷爆炸性增长，因此可以合理推断，资本外流有可能在无意中导致中国的国内金融状况收紧。的确，左边的曲线图似乎表明，这种情况已经在发生。

　　Whether the Chinese credit squeeze continues depends on two factors: the future course of private capital outflows, and the attitude of the authorities to the exchange rate. The higher the capital outflows, and the more determined²⁸ is the PBOC to prevent a large devaluation, the greater the depletion in the reserves will be.

　　中国的信贷紧缩是否会延续下去，取决于两个因素：私人资本外流的未来走向，以及官方对汇率的态度。资本外流速度越快，中国央行越是坚定地阻止人民币大幅贬值，那么外汇储备的消耗幅度就越大。

　　Some analysts are optimistic that the pace of capital outflows will slow down automatically in the near future. Nomura estimates that much of the “hot money” that entered China after 2010 has now exited the country. For example, they suggest that the outstanding stock of foreign loans previously²⁹ taken out by Chinese banks to finance domestic lending has already been cut in half, from a peak of $887 billion a year ago. If so, the capital outflow could soon start to abate³⁰.

　　有些分析人士乐观地认为，资本外流速度将在不远的将来自动放缓下来。野村证券(Nomura)估计，2010年之后进入中国的热钱有很大一部分已撤出了中国。比如，他们提出，中国各银行从国外借入用于国内放贷的贷款余额，已降到了一年前8870亿美元峰值的一半。如果是这样，资本外流可能很快就开始放缓。

　　The problem, though, is that this all depends on confidence. Even though there are still tough regulatory controls on capital outflows, there has been considerable leakage³¹ in the form of illicit³² flows that appear as “errors and omissions” in the official statistics. According to the IMF, capital outflows are likely to be much larger than inflows when capital controls are eliminated.

　　不过，问题在于，这一切都取决于信心。即便目前资本外流仍受到严格的监管控制，但非正规资本流动存在相当大的漏洞，这部分流动在官方统计数据中被列为“错误和遗漏”。IMF数据显示，当资本管制被取消后，资本流出很可能远远高于资本流入。

　　Furthermore, if Chinese citizens lose confidence in the financial system, the capital outflow could become much larger, as firms and households seek ways to avoid currency controls. In many emerging markets, such activities have led to a “sudden stop” in capital availability to the economy during crises.

　　此外，如果中国公民对国内金融体系失去信心，资本外流可能要比目前大得多，公司和家庭都会想方设法绕过汇率管制。在许多新兴市场，这类活动曾在危机期间导致对国内经济的资本供应“突然中断”。

　　Fortunately, there is no sign yet that this is happening in China, and really no need for it to happen in the future. On almost any basis, China’s unencumbered liquid reserves are much greater than liquid liabilities. In fact, there is a strong case for arguing that the present situation should be used as an opportunity to reduce excess reserves (see Joe Gagnon).

　　幸运的是，中国尚没有发生这种情况的迹象，而未来也没必要发生。在几乎任何基础上衡量，中国可支配的流动储备都远远高于流动性负债。事实上有很好的理由认为，当前局面应该被用作降低过高储备的机遇。

　　Excess reserves cost money, because the income earned on foreign assets is generally less than the interest paid on the domestic liabilities held by the central bank as part of its sterilisation operations. Furthermore, at times when the exchange rate is strong, it is difficult to bring the reserves home to refinance the troubled domestic financial system because this would lead to an undesirable³³ overvaluation of the renminbi. The paradox³⁴ is that the reserves can only be used when the exchange rate is weak.

　　储备过高要付出金钱代价，因为从外国资产中获得的收益通常低于央行作为冲销操作的一部分持有的国内负债的利息。另外，当汇率处于强势时，中国很难利用外汇储备为陷入麻烦的国内金融体系提供再融资，因为这将导致不可取的人民币估值过高。矛盾之处在于，只有当汇率较弱时，中国才能让外汇储备派上用场。

　　To restore domestic and international confidence, China needs several policy changes at once: much easier domestic monetary policy; more open international capital markets; a freely floating, but not collapsing³⁵, exchange rate; and a recapitalised domestic financial system. If such a package were announced in a transparent³⁶ and coherent manner, then an orderly drain on the reserves could come to be viewed as part of the solution, not part of the problem. But China’s economic policy regime is not there yet.

　　为了恢复国内、国际信心，中国需要同时进行多项政策调整：比目前宽松得多的国内货币政策；更开放的国际化资本市场；自由浮动、但不会崩溃的汇率；对国内金融体系进行资本重组。若能以透明和有条理的方式公布这样的一揽子政策，那么外汇储备的有序消耗最终有望被视为解决方案的一部分，而非问题的一部分。但就目前而言，中国的经济政策体制还没有到位。

1 relentlessly   

adv.不屈不挠地；残酷地；不间断

参考例句：

• The African sun beat relentlessly down on his aching head. 非洲的太阳无情地照射在他那发痛的头上。
• He pursued her relentlessly, refusing to take 'no' for an answer. 他锲而不舍地追求她，拒不接受“不”的回答。

2 plummeted   

v.垂直落下，骤然跌落( plummet的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• Share prices plummeted to an all-time low. 股票价格暴跌到历史最低点。
• A plane plummeted to earth. 一架飞机一头栽向地面。 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

4 waning   

adj.（月亮）渐亏的，逐渐减弱或变小的n.月亏v.衰落( wane的现在分词 )；（月）亏；变小；变暗淡

参考例句：

• Her enthusiasm for the whole idea was waning rapidly. 她对整个想法的热情迅速冷淡了下来。
• The day is waning and the road is ending. 日暮途穷。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

5 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

6 tightening   

上紧，固定，紧密

参考例句：

• Make sure the washer is firmly seated before tightening the pipe. 旋紧水管之前，检查一下洗衣机是否已牢牢地固定在底座上了。
• It needs tightening up a little. 它还需要再收紧些。

7 crunch   

n.关键时刻；艰难局面；v.发出碎裂声

参考例句：

• If it comes to the crunch they'll support us.关键时刻他们是会支持我们的。
• People who crunch nuts at the movies can be very annoying.看电影时嘎吱作声地嚼干果的人会使人十分讨厌。

8 entirely   

ad.全部地，完整地；完全地，彻底地

参考例句：

• The fire was entirely caused by their neglect of duty. 那场火灾完全是由于他们失职而引起的。
• His life was entirely given up to the educational work. 他的一生统统献给了教育工作。

9 secrecy   

n.秘密，保密，隐蔽

参考例句：

• All the researchers on the project are sworn to secrecy.该项目的所有研究人员都按要求起誓保守秘密。
• Complete secrecy surrounded the meeting.会议在绝对机密的环境中进行。

10 sufficiently   

adv.足够地，充分地

参考例句：

• It turned out he had not insured the house sufficiently.原来他没有给房屋投足保险。
• The new policy was sufficiently elastic to accommodate both views.新政策充分灵活地适用两种观点。

11 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

12 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

13 insolvent   

adj.破产的，无偿还能力的

参考例句：

• They lost orders and were insolvent within weeks.他们失去了订货，几周后就无法偿还债务。
• The bank was declared insolvent.银行被宣布破产。

14 mid   

adj.中央的，中间的

参考例句：

• Our mid-term exam is pending.我们就要期中考试了。
• He switched over to teaching in mid-career.他在而立之年转入教学工作。

15 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

16 inevitable   

adj.不可避免的，必然发生的

参考例句：

• Mary was wearing her inevitable large hat.玛丽戴着她总是戴的那顶大帽子。
• The defeat had inevitable consequences for British policy.战败对英国政策不可避免地产生了影响。

17 appreciation   

n.评价；欣赏；感谢；领会，理解；价格上涨

参考例句：

• I would like to express my appreciation and thanks to you all.我想对你们所有人表达我的感激和谢意。
• I'll be sending them a donation in appreciation of their help.我将送给他们一笔捐款以感谢他们的帮助。

18 persistent   

adj.坚持不懈的，执意的；持续的

参考例句：

• Albert had a persistent headache that lasted for three days.艾伯特连续头痛了三天。
• She felt embarrassed by his persistent attentions.他不时地向她大献殷勤，使她很难为情。

19 dynamics   

n.力学，动力学，动力，原动力；动态

参考例句：

• In order to succeed,you must master complicated knowledge of dynamics.要取得胜利，你必须掌握很复杂的动力学知识。
• Dynamics is a discipline that cannot be mastered without extensive practice.动力学是一门不做大量习题就不能掌握的学科。

20 mechanism   

n.机械装置；机构，结构

参考例句：

• The bones and muscles are parts of the mechanism of the body.骨骼和肌肉是人体的组成部件。
• The mechanism of the machine is very complicated.这台机器的结构是非常复杂的。

21 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

22 intervention   

n.介入，干涉，干预

参考例句：

• The government's intervention in this dispute will not help.政府对这场争论的干预不会起作用。
• Many people felt he would be hostile to the idea of foreign intervention.许多人觉得他会反对外来干预。

23 futures   

n.期货，期货交易

参考例句：

• He continued his operations in cotton futures.他继续进行棉花期货交易。
• Cotton futures are selling at high prices.棉花期货交易的卖价是很高的。

24 depletion   

n.耗尽，枯竭

参考例句：

• Increased consumption of water has led to rapid depletion of groundwater reserves.用水量的增加导致了地下水贮备迅速枯竭。
• Farmers should rotate crops every season to prevent depletion of the soil.农夫每季应该要轮耕，以免耗尽土壤。

25 liquidity   

n.流动性，偿债能力，流动资产

参考例句：

• The bank has progressively increased its liquidity.银行逐渐地增加其流动资产。
• The demand for and the supply of credit is closely linked to changes in liquidity.信用的供求和流动资金的变化有密切关系。

26 offset   

n.分支，补偿；v.抵消，补偿

参考例句：

• Their wage increases would be offset by higher prices.他们增加的工资会被物价上涨所抵消。
• He put up his prices to offset the increased cost of materials.他提高了售价以补偿材料成本的增加。

27 fully   

adv.完全地，全部地，彻底地；充分地

参考例句：

• The doctor asked me to breathe in,then to breathe out fully.医生让我先吸气，然后全部呼出。
• They soon became fully integrated into the local community.他们很快就完全融入了当地人的圈子。

28 determined   

adj.坚定的；有决心的

参考例句：

• I have determined on going to Tibet after graduation.我已决定毕业后去西藏。
• He determined to view the rooms behind the office.他决定查看一下办公室后面的房间。

29 previously   

adv.以前，先前（地）

参考例句：

• The bicycle tyre blew out at a previously damaged point.自行车胎在以前损坏过的地方又爆开了。
• Let me digress for a moment and explain what had happened previously.让我岔开一会儿，解释原先发生了什么。

30 abate   

vi.(风势，疼痛等)减弱，减轻，减退

参考例句：

• We must abate the noise pollution in our city.我们必须消除我们城里的噪音污染。
• The doctor gave him some medicine to abate the powerful pain.医生给了他一些药，以减弱那剧烈的疼痛。

31 leakage   

n.漏，泄漏；泄漏物；漏出量

参考例句：

• Large areas of land have been contaminated by the leakage from the nuclear reactor.大片地区都被核反应堆的泄漏物污染了。
• The continuing leakage is the result of the long crack in the pipe.这根管子上的那一条裂缝致使渗漏不断。

32 illicit   

adj.非法的，禁止的，不正当的

参考例句：

• He had an illicit association with Jane.他和简曾有过不正当关系。
• Seizures of illicit drugs have increased by 30% this year.今年违禁药品的扣押增长了30%。

33 undesirable   

adj.不受欢迎的，不良的，不合意的，讨厌的；n.不受欢迎的人，不良分子

参考例句：

• They are the undesirable elements among the employees.他们是雇员中的不良分子。
• Certain chemicals can induce undesirable changes in the nervous system.有些化学物质能在神经系统中引起不良变化。

34 paradox   

n.似乎矛盾却正确的说法；自相矛盾的人(物)

参考例句：

• The story contains many levels of paradox.这个故事存在多重悖论。
• The paradox is that Japan does need serious education reform.矛盾的地方是日本确实需要教育改革。

35 collapsing   

压扁[平]，毁坏，断裂

参考例句：

• Rescuers used props to stop the roof of the tunnel collapsing. 救援人员用支柱防止隧道顶塌陷。
• The rocks were folded by collapsing into the center of the trough. 岩石由于坍陷进入凹槽的中心而发生褶皱。

36 transparent   

adj.明显的，无疑的；透明的

参考例句：

• The water is so transparent that we can see the fishes swimming.水清澈透明，可以看到鱼儿游来游去。
• The window glass is transparent.窗玻璃是透明的。