2007年VOA标准英语-Intelligence Estimate Says al-Qaida Intends to
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By Gary ThomasWashington
17 July 2007
A new U.S. intelligence estimate says al-Qaida remains1 determined2 to mount attacks on major targets in the United States, especially if it can acquire weapons of mass destruction. VOA correspondent Gary Thomas reports on the intelligence community's latest conclusions on al-Qaida's strength and reach.
The publicly released portions of the new National Intelligence Estimate say al-Qaida's determination to attack the United States is undiminished. Ted3 Gistaro, the intelligence officer who wrote the report, says counter-terrorism efforts have hampered4 al-Qaida, but it still remains the major threat to the United States.
"It has constrained5 al-Qaida, and caused a number of terrorist groups in addition to al-Qaida to perceive the U.S. as a more difficult target, but despite that we see an undiminished intent on the part of al-Qaida to try and attack us here at home. And so we concluded that al-Qaida is and will remain the most serious threat to the homeland," he said.
The estimate says al-Qaida has reconstituted itself as a center of global Islamic terrorism in bases deep inside Pakistan's largely lawless tribal6 areas along the Afghan border.
But Gistaro says al-Qaida is not stronger now than it was right after September 11th, 2001, as some earlier news reports had suggested.
"The [intelligence] community did not make the judgment7 that al-Qaida is stronger than at any time since 9/11 - did not discuss that, did not make that judgment," he said.
| Personnel work in an unsecured training area of the Los Angeles Joint Regional Intelligence Center (file photo) |
A 2006 National Intelligence Estimate on al-Qaida said the global jihadist movement was becoming decentralized and diffuse11. Gistaro says that appears to have changed as al-Qaida has become more organized again and seeks to extend its reach and contacts, particularly with the group calling itself al-Qaida in Iraq.
"I think the relationship can be elastic12 at times. I think certainly two years ago we described it as being more decentralized, more of a franchisee13 type of relationship. I think one of the implications of al-Qaida core [leadership] having a more secure safe haven14 in Pakistan is that it's able to reconnect those lines of communication," he said.
White House Homeland Security Adviser15 Fran Townsend says the new intelligence estimate highlights the need for continuing vigilance against al-Qaida's terrorist threats.
"We are facing a persistent16 terrorist enemy led by al-Qaida that remains driven and intent on attacking the homeland and that continues to adapt and improve its capabilities17," she said.
But Peter Zeihan, an analyst18 with the private intelligence firm Stratfor, says the public portions of the National Intelligence Estimate highlight intentions, not capabilities.
"If you go through the NIE report with a fine tooth comb, you'll notice that the word 'intent' is thrown around a lot, but the word 'capabilities' never pops up. And that's how we see it. The intent of al-Qaida to leverage19 all these groups that want to be associated with it, such as al-Qaida in Iraq, is definitely there. The intent of al-Qaida Prime, the apex20 leadership, to launch another major attack in the United States, is certainly there. What they lack is the capability," he said.
Democrats21 and Republicans both seized on the intelligence estimate to bolster22 their respective arguments over Iraq war policy. Republicans said the report highlights the continued need to confront al-Qaida in Iraq. Democrats say it underscores how the war in Iraq created new terrorists there while allowing al-Qaida to re-group in Pakistan.
